From the Guardian:
A first case in Europe of the new variant of Covid-19 has been identified in Belgium in an unvaccinated young adult woman who developed mild flu-like symptoms 11 days after traveling to Egypt via Turkey.
The patient did not report any links with South Africa or other countries in southern Africa. None of her family members have developed symptoms. The patient was said to have a high viral load at the time of diagnosis by researchers at the universities, KU Leuven and UZ Leuven.
This means it’s already everywhere. And it should be pretty obvious that the vaccines don’t work against this: Israel reported a positive case in a 32 year old woman who received her third shot two months ago.
The important thing to remember is that you don’t need a virus that evades 100% of the vaccine induced antibodies for the vaccine to fail. The vaxx developers are in full damage control mode on Twitter now, insisting that this is not necessarily a big deal. All evidence however suggests that the vaccines are going to fail against this variant. Of course you’ll still have some immunity against this variant from these vaccines, but there’s the problem: You always have some immunity. You already had some immunity from other corona viruses, but we know that some immunity isn’t going to do the trick.
If it evades most of your antibodies then it’s like sending off an army faced with overwhelming odds. These vaccines through original antigenic sin will prohibit your body from generating a more effective immune response. The spike protein now looks pretty much completely different and it’s now responsible for the majority of cases in South Africa, this took place at a speed far exceeding the rise of Beta and Delta.
Vaccinated people are now stuck with this mediocre immune response, that’s intended for a variant that no longer exists. This really looks like the scenario where you’re worse off being vaccinated than you are if you’re unvaccinated. And if this is somehow not yet the big one, the one that uses everyone’s highly identical immune response against the Wuhan version of the spike protein to its own advantage, then you can rest assured that when it grows dominant, it will be giving birth to descendants that will do the trick.
Let me grab an old study from Japanese scientists, who tried to answer the question: Under what circumstances do we see antibody dependent enhancement? That is, a situation in which the virus uses your overall vaccine induced antibody response to its own advantage, leaving you worse off than if you had never been vaccinated in the first place. They determined it’s pretty easy: You take Delta and you add these four mutations:
K417N, N439K, E484K and N501Y.
If you throw those four mutations into Delta, you have a version that uses your vaccine induced antibody response to its own advantage.
Does that ring a bell?
Just spotted: very small cluster of variant associated with Southern Africa with very long branch length and really awful Spike mutation profile including RBD – K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505Hhttps://t.co/kgA9c1hKDa
— Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu) November 23, 2021
So let’s see:
-N439K: No, but we have N440K which is a neighboring mutation and should perform the same trick of interfering with the antibodies.
-E484K: We have E484A, which means you have a mutation at the same spot, but resulting in a different amino acid, Alanine instead of Lysine.
In other words, its mutations look pretty much identical to what the Japanese scientists were warning would allow Delta to use your vaccine induced antibody response to its own advantage. Oops.
(1) Let me save you the suspense. News reports that “effectiveness of vaccines against B.1.1.529 will be determined in two weeks.” Those tests will find that the vaccines don’t produce neutralizing antibodies against the new variant.
— Dr. Jacob Glanville (@CurlyJungleJake) November 26, 2021
The vaccine manufacturers are saying they’ll need two weeks before figuring out whether the vaccines will need to be updated or not. I don’t think you need two weeks to figure out these vaccines are useless against this thing. If healthy 32 year old triple vaccinated people are getting infected and spreading this thing, then your vaccine is useless.
This leads to a number of awkward questions: I thought you were going to update these vaccines for Delta? Now there’s a new variant, unrelated to Delta, but you’re going to update the vaccines for this new variant? Oh and what does that mean for the people who were scheduled to receive their booster to the original variant?
I give it two months at most, before you’ll be starting to see a consensus shift: These vaccines were a big mistake. Now you can see why. A new variant emerges that seems to have evolved in someone who was HIV positive while infected for an extended period of time with SARS-COV-2, giving the virus ample time to figure out an optimal solution to the vaccine induced immune response.
The other awkward question they don’t want to address is as following: How are you going to avoid an original antigenic sin response to your new variant specific strain? How do you make sure your new vaccine updated for this new strain isn’t just going to boost the antibodies originally developed against the original strain you vaccinated everyone against? They have no solution. In fact, this new strain spreads so fast that if it escapes our attempts to contain it (which all evidence suggests will be the case), the new variant specific vaccine will come far too late to make a difference.
And that’s when it gets ugly. With influenza, we have an age-stratified layered immune response: The influenza virus changes over time, so different age categories have different immune responses to influenza. If a new variant emerges that makes optimal use of one age category’s immune response, it won’t help it spread in other age categories.
For this virus, we injected everyone with vaccines that target an identical Spike protein. This means that most adults in the Western world now have a highly similar immune response to this virus. All it takes is one variant of this virus that figures out how to use that immune response to its own advantage and you’re faced with a disaster.
When you try to generate a highly identical immune response against this virus in everyone, to protect 0.3% of the population, you’re setting your whole society up for disaster when some variant of this virus comes into existence that isn’t affected by this vaccine induced immune response.
The vaccines were a mistake. You can’t develop a quick and easy fix to a problem like this. When you have a respiratory virus that kills around 0.3% of people it infects, overwhelmingly elderly people in poor health, then you’re better off asking yourself what leaves 0.3% of people unable to fight off this virus and focusing on addressing those underlying problems.