Serotype evolution: How Dengue became so deadly

As I’ve said before, the biggest risk in the folly of vaccinating people against SARS2 is the serotype scenario: A situation where two or more versions of the virus circulate simultaneously and immunity you developed against one version merely helps another version make you more ill. The risk of serotype formation increases with time. To prevent this you want to see variant independent immunity, which no currently available vaccines deliver.

We can see the serotype scenario at work for Dengue. Dengue has been around for centuries, but it’s only really after the second world war, when global deaths and severe disease from Dengue begin to climb. The main reason this happened is because air travel now allows the different Dengue versions that evolved to spread around the world. This means that the number of people getting reinfected by a different version at some point in their lives has massively increased.

A second Dengue infection is 9 times more likely to cause symptoms and 24 times more likely to result in life-threatening conditions. The result can be seen in Brazil, where deaths from Dengue went up a hundred-fold over thirty years, as different versions began to circulate in the country together.

Now the question you may have is: If this serotype scenario is such a big problem, why don’t we see it with influenza? Why hasn’t influenza evolved into four different versions that use our antibody response to wreak havoc? Well, that brings us to our good friends we have discussed before, the Natural Killer cells. These cells prevent the immune response from being overly damaging against influenza. They have also been found to dampen the adaptive immune response developed against mycoplasma respiratory disease.

There is also the important difference in variant-independent IgM antibodies mentioned before. These antibodies normally perform most neutralization against influenza and SARS2. But perhaps most important is the simple fact that it just takes a very long time before you catch influenza again: Only about 10% of people catch it and develop a symptomatic infection in a given year.

With far more time between infections, there’s far less incentive to evolve such serotypes. After all, once influenza shows up in your lungs, the immune landscape it encounters won’t be imprinted by the most recent influenza infection you had, but by a hCov or some other pathogen.

In this sense, serotype formation is also encouraged by the failure of the mass vaccination program. The Omicron era phenomenon of constant waves of mass reinfection, even during summer, because these viruses utilize an immune response fixated on Wuhan thanks to our own stupidity, also facilitates serotype formation.

Based on the numbers we now have, it really seems that with BA.2.86 we’re sitting in the Goldilocks zone for serotype formation. It’s spreading fast enough to sustain itself, but it’s not spreading so rapidly that it will wipe out the dominant XBB family. This means it will now have to mutate to survive, to ensure the XBB response doesn’t neutralize it.

If you were to assume the two families just don’t interfere with each other, then you’d expect a doubling in the number of annual infections people suffer. That would be bad enough on its own, as that increases the risk of people suffering damage faster than their bodies can repair. If you were to expect something more akin to Dengue, where the infections aid each other, it becomes a catastrophe.


Over the span of a few days we went from most people thinking this new variant would go nowhere, to the UK government apparently being worried enough about it that they’re bringing forward their vaccination program. This led me to realize there’s another point I haven’t properly explained yet.

BA.2.86 came into existence, due to someone who would have been infected for a year and a half. The mutations it has suggests it will be more virulent than older variants. But importantly, the default assumption we have to make about persistent Omicron infections, is that whatever new waves they spark will probably have pre-Omicron level virulence.

The reason is because that’s what you see when you study chronic Omicron infections:

The milder clinical manifestations of Omicron infection relative to pre-Omicron SARS CoV-2 raises the possibility that extensive evolution results in reduced pathogenicity. To test this hypothesis, we quantified induction of cell fusion and cell death in SARS CoV-2 evolved from ancestral virus during long-term infection. Both cell fusion and death were reduced in Omicron BA.1 infection relative to ancestral virus. Evolved virus was isolated at different times during a 6-month infection in an immunosuppressed individual with advanced HIV disease. The virus isolated 16 days post-reported symptom onset induced fusogenicity and cell death at levels similar to BA.1. However, fusogenicity was increased in virus isolated at 6 months post-symptoms to levels intermediate between BA.1 and ancestral SARS-CoV-2. Similarly, infected cell death showed a graded increase from earlier to later isolates. These results may indicate that, at least by the cellular measures used here, evolution in long-term infection does not necessarily attenuate the virus.

The longer it evolved, the better it got at killing cells. After 190 days, it was back to the lethality of the original virus. This is something people don’t enjoy hearing: The Omicron variants are gradually evolving back towards the level of virulence of the pre-Omicron variants.


The big mistake that people make about viruses is to think that they have to evolve to become less virulent once they begin to infect us. There’s fundamentally nothing that requires this.

Smallpox is the most notable example. It only really became deadly during the Renaissance, it spent the medieval era as a mild childhood infection. What changed? Nobody really knows.

Dengue however, is the more immediately relevant example. Because a second infection with a different serotype becomes far deadlier, the spread of people around the world leads to far more people suffering multiple infections by different serotypes of Dengue. This is the main reason it became such a problem since the second world war.

The new BA.2.86 variant clearly is not about to disappear. Rather than directly competing with the XBB family, over the coming months it will evolve to carve out its own niche. That’s its only viable survival strategy. Then we will find out that humanity is faced with at least two simultaneously circulating serotypes.

SARS viruses are intrinsically just very big threats to our species. We know this because we can see that our genes rapidly changed to deal with them in the past thousands of years ago. This happens when they hurt a lot of people.

Our immune systems evolved to arrive at whatever optimal response they can produce to these viruses. When we deploy a poor vaccine against such viruses, as the IgG4 antibody response now clearly beyond any reasonable doubt illustrates we have done, we permanently impoverish our collective immune response towards these viruses.

It would be easy to imagine a conspiracy by radical misanthropic environmentalists as responsible for this. But the reality is probably far more banal: Two superpowers experimenting with viruses to produce a new vaccine for military defense purposes, something going horrifyingly wrong during such an experiment, then a greedy real estate mogul elected president and his incompetent staff pursue a vaccine at “warp speed”, corporate greed leads vaccine developers to push an unsafe solution and rather than question the risks, scientists respond as a monolithic group.

I’m not entirely convinced of van den Bossche’s endgame scenario, because I suspect that a heavily glycosylated Spike protein would not have a survival advantage: Although this would obscure the peptides to which most antibodies bind, the human body also produces antibodies (mostly IgM) that just react to anything covered by a large number of sugar molecules.

Rather, I’m expecting that with multiple simultaneously circulating serotypes, we will just see a rapid deterioration of the situation. One article more or less won’t solve this situation. Rather, I’m honestly just motivated by a morbid curiosity.

I used to think our civilization would eventually collapse due to the changes to our atmosphere, with humans retreating into megacities that block the sun, taking down non-human species with us as the heatwaves gradually just become too severe for above-ground vertebrate lifeforms to survive.

But now it’s starting to look more as if life on Earth can outlive our species: We will descend into a grey haze of dementia and immune dysfunction, unaware of what is happening around us, as the world around us recovers.

20 Comments

  1. The last line of defense at a personal level is to make as many children as possible, at an age as early as possible, and to instruct them to do the same.

    Raskolnikov’s dream in “Crime and Punishment” ends with the following description of the survivors: “They were a pure chosen people, destined to found a new race and a new life, to renew and purify the earth, but no one had seen these men, no one had heard their words and their voices.” ( https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/2554/pg2554-images.html )

    Any reasons to believe that one of the human subspecies (aka races), or a combination thereof (notice the “new race” words in the dream), have a specific advantage in fighting the virus? If that matters, I want to know what advice to give to my children for choosing a spouse.

    • Here is the dream for those too lazy to CTRL+F in the Project Gutenberg text:

      “He dreamt that the whole world was condemned to a terrible new strange plague that had come to Europe from the depths of Asia. All were to be destroyed except a very few chosen. Some new sorts of microbes were attacking the bodies of men, but these microbes were endowed with intelligence and will. Men attacked by them became at once mad and furious. But never had men considered themselves so intellectual and so completely in possession of the truth as these sufferers, never had they considered their decisions, their scientific conclusions, their moral convictions so infallible. Whole villages, whole towns and peoples went mad from the infection. All were excited and did not understand one another. Each thought that he alone had the truth and was wretched looking at the others, beat himself on the breast, wept, and wrung his hands. They did not know how to judge and could not agree what to consider evil and what good; they did not know whom to blame, whom to justify. Men killed each other in a sort of senseless spite. They gathered together in armies against one another, but even on the march the armies would begin attacking each other, the ranks would be broken and the soldiers would fall on each other, stabbing and cutting, biting and devouring each other. The alarm bell was ringing all day long in the towns; men rushed together, but why they were summoned and who was summoning them no one knew. The most ordinary trades were abandoned, because everyone proposed his own ideas, his own improvements, and they could not agree. The land too was abandoned. Men met in groups, agreed on something, swore to keep together, but at once began on something quite different from what they had proposed. They accused one another, fought and killed each other. There were conflagrations and famine. All men and all things were involved in destruction. The plague spread and moved further and further. Only a few men could be saved in the whole world. They were a pure chosen people, destined to found a new race and a new life, to renew and purify the earth, but no one had seen these men, no one had heard their words and their voices.”

    • Yes and no. There is K-strategy which focuses more on quality and quantity. The men can afford to do this more since they are fertile for longer compared to women who have a much more steep drop off.

      That enables survival as much as reproduction.

      But statistically on a bell shaped curve it is quite interesting how generally the age of the wife tracks on average from the same age to 5 years younger than the Husband.

      Hence by requisite of the capabilities of the Husband alongside his industriousness, slow life history and good character.

      Population growth can be limited by such requirements for Quality.

  2. Thanks for putting out all these continuous updates detailing the evolutionary dynamics of the pandemic. I would say that one of the main reasons I chose not to get vaccinated back in 2021 was the unknown risk regarding ADE. This is what all the LSWMs in the Zerohedge comment section were talking about. How all the previous attempts to make coronavirus vaccines failed because the vaccinated animals died upon exposure to the wild virus due to ADE.

    So I kept looking for proof from the mainstream medical establishment that ADE would not happen. I watched YouTube videos of interviews with Paul Offit and Viki Male in which they reassured the viewers that it was not a risk.

    I also listened to a Joe Rogan Experience podcast with Dr. Rhonda Patrick, whom I was very familiar with from previous episodes of the show. The specific episode that I am referring to is JRE # 1701 (available on Spotify). She discusses ADE starting at 2:35:45 in the episode.

    She refers to work done at the University of Austin in which a 2 point mutation kept the spike protein in the pre-fusion complex which (according to Dr. Rhonda) would prevent these mRNA vaccines from causing ADE. According to her, it’s the post-fusion antibodies that cause ADE.

    I’m just curious if you were aware of this research, and what your thoughts are.

    • Because having multiple SARS2 serotypes circulating simultaneously (as now seems to be happening unfortunately) would indeed cause massive concern regarding risks of ADE, as you discussed in one of your August blogs (antibodies from serotype A infection cause ADE in a subsequent serotype B infection, and vice versa).

    • >She refers to work done at the University of Austin in which a 2 point mutation kept the spike protein in the pre-fusion complex which (according to Dr. Rhonda) would prevent these mRNA vaccines from causing ADE. According to her, it’s the post-fusion antibodies that cause ADE.

      Yeah this is stupid.

      Every single time we’ve witnessed ADE, the mechanism has been different.

      Even for SARS2, the mechanisms differ. There are antibodies that fail to neutralize but bind to FC receptors. That’s the most classical scenario.

      There are however also antibodies that bind to NTD and help open the Spike:

      https://inflammregen.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s41232-022-00233-7

      We know the vaccines induce development of such antibodies. These antibodies are associated with increase severity of disease.

      There are also actually antibodies that help certain variants bind their RBM to ACE2. You’ll have to believe me on this one, I’m not going to spend hours looking up the study.

      So that’s three different mechanisms of enhancement you’re dealing with.

      And I’m supposed to believe that by changing two amino acids, these people would prohibit all these scenarios?

      That’s retarded.

      Finally there’s a fourth antibody dependent enhancement mechanism you have to consider: Autoantibody induction against the immune cascade itself. A woman developed interferon autoantibodies from mRNA vaccination:

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9385769/

      It was specifically interferon autoantibodies that were elevated. Interferon is what you produce to stop viral particles from replicating themselves. It works against a lot of different viruses. If your antibodies from vaccination bind to Interferon and make it useless, that also aids chronic viral infections.

      My point is: IgG Antibodies can help a virus in so many different ways to replicate itself in our bodies, that it’s hubris to think that you can somehow “rule out” antibody dependent enhancement by presenting a protein in one particular form by changing two amino acids.

      It’s just impossible for a human being to rule out all four of these scenarios, let alone any additional scenarios that I haven’t thought of.

      That’s why the honest (but deceptive) answer they always gave was: “Antibody dependent enhancement has not been observed”

      And as I explained more than two years ago, that’s not reassuring, because the exact problem is that the virus will just mutate to avoid the neutralizing antibodies, while it will just keep recalling the antibodies that help it out.

      And that is of course exactly what Omicron and Delta did: The antibodies against RBD generally stop working, along with neutralizing NTD antibodies.

      But non-neutralizing NTD antibodies? Oh they love those, they kept the regions where these shitty antibodies bound mostly the same. In fact, I’d love to find out why BA.2.86 ended up with that weird four amino acid insertion in NTD. Insertions are very rare and not how this virus normally escapes antibodies. It might very well be a way to attract more enhancing antibodies.

      Evolution is elegant and creative.

      What’s not elegant, is human hubris.

      And frankly, it just makes me angry, because plenty of LSWMs will have heard of “antibody dependent enhancement”, wondered whether that’s a problem, read these idiots argue “it hasn’t been observed yet” and fail to understand that just because it hasn’t been observed, doesn’t mean evolution won’t cause it to happen eventually.

      All these idiots who thought they could outsmart nature like this are going to be humiliated in the annals of history.

    • Yeah.

      All these estimates are just simplifications though of the underlying biology.

      Infectivity is nice to measure, but the reality is just that this virus does not depend on ACE2, it has various ACE2 independent mechanisms available to it. Reduced infectivity through ACE2 could just be compensated through some other mechanism we don’t know about.

      Finally, when they measure resistance to antibody neutralization that’s somewhat useful, but again, just doesn’t tell us everything. After all, tissue tropism may have changed. If BA.2.86 stands no chance against the antibodies in your upper respiratory tract, but now mainly infects your intestines, then it doesn’t matter.

  3. Re: Natto, my reply to Walter Chesnut – related to you also

    Awesome post. Just a data point. On some days but not all (about half), I had “brain fog”, which had detrimental effect on my ability to author substack articles.

    A couple of months ago I started taking NAC and nattokinase. Not sure if it is a coincidence, but brain fog mostly went away. Then for a week or so I stopped for random reasons and brain fog returned. Now I am back taking it and things are better. Three of my recent articles ended up on infowars too, which I know is not entirely unrelated to cognitive functioning.

    This brain fog is intermittent and therefore it is difficult to definitely point to the cause or effect. But on the days when I have it, I prefer not to publish because it could be a crappy article without me even realizing.

    • If you play minesweeper a lot you’ve probably got your best time down to a point beyond which it is tough to improve. Like an elite 100m runner, gets down to about 10 seconds. And after that there’s not much improvement to be had.

      If that’s the case, you can play minesweeper when you feel fine and alert, and also when suspected “brain fog” strikes. If there’s a noticeable difference between the times, maybe the brain fog is a genuine concern.

      It won’t work if you aren’t an experienced minesweeper player. If you’re new to it you’ll learn and be able to improve as the months go by. That will make it not much of a test for brain fog.

      Has anyone else given any thought to brain fog detection techniques?

  4. Some of you may remember “The Spartacus Letter”, which was one of the first scientifically-informed salvos against the Covid madness, early on.

    Spartacus/ICENI just released another podcast update in which he sounds very much like our host Rintrah, but almost like a mirror image of the same. He confesses that he very much used to be a “greenie”, but came to realize the nefarious goals of the power players directing the show.

    No LSWM, he.

    I would put his biochemistry knowledge up against Rintrah’s any day.

    A sample:

    >But that’s not even the most egregious part. The worst part about all of this is how they’re treating billions of people like panicky little children. If you’re a part of the ruling class, and you honestly think there’s an impending Malthusian Catastrophe, why wouldn’t you, logically speaking, give people the straight scoop on it, outline clear objectives and goals for humanity, and utilize our vast cognitive and physical powers to solve the problem? Surely, if we had enough money and man-hours allocated toward the problem, we could develop room-temperature superconductors, fusion reactors, fusion torches, and so on, and never have to worry about energy or materials shortages ever again, right? That’s not what they’re doing. They’re foisting a CO2 red herring on everyone, implementing a top-down and transnational program of austerity and defeatism that leaves the wealthy with their wealth and billions of innocent, unsuspecting people holding the bag.

    His post is available as audible podcast or text, for your reading pleasure.

    https://iceni.substack.com/p/spartacast-11#details

    • >If you’re a part of the ruling class, and you honestly think there’s an impending Malthusian Catastrophe, why wouldn’t you, logically speaking, give people the straight scoop on it, outline clear objectives and goals for humanity

      Because elites almost always end up living in a delusional make-believe land, in which they can still “win”.

      The Biden administration doesn’t believe there’s an imminent Malthusian catastrophe. They think climate change is an issue that needs to be addressed, sure, but they have a bunch of economists write papers for them suggesting that by 2100 at 4 degree Celsius of warming GDP would be reduced by a few percent, instead of causing billions of deaths.

      If you people had an IQ above room temperature you could figure this out yourselves.

  5. The Patriot Act did two things:

    Allow intelligence agencies to spy on American citizens

    Lift the 1972 ban on bioweapons development.

    The Patriot Act negated the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention treaty by declaring that any federal official who violates the Convention cannot be prosecuted.

    In 2001, the Pentagon began investing heavily in bioweapons. But they were nervous, because if you violate the Geneva Convention, it’s a hanging offense. They weren’t sure that the provision in the Patriot Act would actually hold up as a loophole to treaties that had been ratified by Congress.

    So they transferred the authority for biosecurity to an agency in Health and Human Services called the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), run by Anthony Fauci.

    Fauci became responsible for all bioweapons development. In return he got a 68% raise from the Pentagon. That’s why he was the highest paid official in the American government.

    Every bioweapon requires a vaccine. The development is side-by-side, because bioweapons always cause blowback: Your side gets sick too. So you must vaccinate before you deploy it.

    A bioweapon-vaccine is developed via gain-of-function science. The pathogen’s infectivity is enhanced, or it’s made to jump species. Then it’s made immune to common treatments such as antibiotics. 36,000 scientists are employed full time in developing these bioweapons.

    Fauci’s BSL 3-4 biolabs were all over the USA, many of them secret. In 2014, three pathogens escaped; this became public. Congress held hearings, and Obama signed a moratorium that shut down 18 of Fauci’s worst experiments. Most of them being done in Galveston and North Carolina by a scientist named Ralph Baric.

    Instead of obeying that law, Anthony Fauci shifted his operations offshore. Most of them ended up in the Wuhan Lab, which is a military lab run by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. Many also went to Ukraine. Fauci continued funding it. Most of the funding came from the Department of Defense. The biggest single funder is USAID, which is a CIA cutout.

    Ralph Baric taught his NIH-funded coronavirus technology to the scientists at the Wuhan lab, including Shi Zhengli, the famous “bat lady”, and her assistant Ben Hu.

    Baric taught them two things:

    How to engineer a spike with a furin cleavage that could attach to the ACE2 receptors in the human lungs, to make a virus airborne

    Seamless ligation, which is a technique for disguising the evidence of human tampering. This makes engineered pathogens look natural.

    Ben, who was leading that research, got sick with two other teammates. They ended up in the hospital with COVID symptoms in November of 2019.

    The original COVID cases were along a subway line from Wuhan to the airport. Before they developed symptoms, Ben Hu and the two others rode that subway every day, infecting people.

    Why was China so careless with COVID19? Evidence suggests it had been testing COVID variants on its own population already. Pre-Omicron COVID19 has a high affinity for European ACE2 receptors and low affinity for East Asian receptors, making it an ethnically-targeted bioweapon. The PLA attempted to use the Wuhan Military Games to spread COVID19 globally and frame the USA for releasing it. The CCP needed a plague to justify locking down Hong Kong to strangle the CIA’s attempted color revolution, a strategy which proved completely successful.

    ACE2 coding variants in different populations and their potential impact on SARS-CoV-2 binding affinity

    The summary table in the supplementary data makes clear that Han Chinese and Ashkenazi are protected, whereas European Americans are targeted. I’ve read somewhere that Ukrainian Slavs were the most targeted, whereas Nordics had some protection. If the USA’s biolabs in Ukraine helped develop the virus using Slav ACE2 receptors in humanized mice, with the assistance of Soros and Nuland, as part of Zelensky’s “Big Israel” project to restore Khazaria, that would explain it. The “South Asian” affinity might be a red herring or a swipe at China’s neighbor India, with whom it has a hilarious border conflict involving medieval melee combat.

    https://leolittlebook.substack.com/p/tucker-carlsons-bombshell-interview

  6. Just a question about the van den Bossche endgame – if he’s talking about those who were vaccinated before infection, doesn’t the effect of the vaccine on the immune system mean that they won’t have an IgM response worth a damn, to deal with sugar coated virus?

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The patients in the mental ward have had their daily dose of xanax and calmed down it seems, so most of your comments should be automatically posted again. Try not to annoy me with your low IQ low status white male theories about the Nazi gas chambers being fake or CO2 being harmless plant food and we can all get along. Have fun!

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