A 0.5% infant mortality rate, if you can keep it.

**MANDATORY BYLINE** PIC FROM Mogens Trolle / Caters News - (PICTURED: A baby orangutan giving the camera a thumbs up in Tanjung Puting National Park in Kalimantan. PIC TAKEN IN JULY 2018) - Look at this cute baby Orangutan as it gives a satisfied thumbs up to the camera! Taken by Mogens Trolle while in the Tanjung Puting National Park in Kalimantan, Borneo, the adorable primate looks straight into the lens and makes the contented gesture. Mogens, from Denmark, whos been a wildlife photographer for the last 25 years said: I spent a week in the Tanjung Puting National Park in Kalimantan, the Indonesian part of Borneo, in order to photograph orangutans.SEE CATERS COPY

People are biased to believe social stability and peace are self-evident. They feel comfortable whining about their rights and their stigma and prejudice, because they live in a society where hardly anyone has to face real hardship. Here’s an example, used to justify the gay pride:

No description available.

“As long as gay is used as an insult, you’re not allowed to donate blood, the media uses stereotypes, homophobes have a podium, love is seen as something disgusting and you’re ashamed of who you are, there’s a need for pride.”

What this represents, is a complete inability to understand tail risks. We can’t test blood for every possible pathogen out there. If something like a new retrovirus is stealthily spreading through the population, it would endanger vast numbers of people. That’s the real problem, not your feelings in regards to not being allowed to donate blood.

And monkeypox is a similar example of a tail risk. There is a small risk of an extreme outcome. It’s perfectly possible that I’m wrong, that monkeypox fails to figure out how to produce a version of itself that can sustain transmission outside of men who have gay orgies.

But if there’s a 1% chance of monkeypox figuring out how to become the next smallpox, you would be faced with billions of deaths this century, as smallpox killed 300 million in the 20th century alone. Just avoiding the 1% risk would thus save tens of millions of lives on paper. But how would you look to the outside world? As a homophobic tyrant, because they don’t recognize the tail risk.

And as much as I would like to focus on happier stories, I have to point this out, because there is a profound crime being committed here. That crime, is against the average dumb schmuck, the “breeder”. The average forty-something year old, working class straight family man, the man who is a little gullible but generally well-meaning. He thinks homosexuals are weird, he certainly hopes his son won’t grow up to be one, but he carries no ill will towards them.

He’s the type who gives birth to memes like this:

Image

And he doesn’t have the slightest clue what he’s dealing with. This is one of the sad realities of life, that the average man doesn’t have the skills and knowledge to recognize what lies in his own self-interest, so he is exploited by minorities of people who do recognize their own self-interest. It’s true for environmental pollution caused by corporations, it’s true for various lobby groups that manage to get governments to grant them subsidies, but it’s also true for diseases spread through sodomy.

You need to be a little naive, a little gullible, a little overly optimistic, to be a good parent. And so in a sane and functional society, a society that wants to live, the people who are not blessed with those traits, the people who are hostile, vicious, elitist, competitive, narcissistic, arrogant and Machiavellian, would recognize their responsibility to protect the people who are gullible: The “breeders”, the average Joe who just wants to live his life.

The upper echelons of society tend to attract homosexuals, the clergy has always been filled with these types, as has the military. But in a sane society, those people recognize their impulses should be restrained and their obligation to society is to protect those who are vulnerable and naive. Our society is wicked, so in our society gay men feel entitled to respect they never earned. You don’t get to complain about a “stigma”, when you are giving birth to an existential threat to civilization.

The average family man, whose main priority in life is to see his children thrive, is not capable of understanding how a virus that is found for 98% in gay men can pose a threat to other demographics. But maybe, just maybe, a visual example will help him understand it. The United States now has the first case, of children in daycare who were exposed through an infected worker at the daycare.

Unfortunately, the nature of exponential growth and especially superexponential growth tends to be that when you can see the problem, it’s already to late. Human minds are designed to respond to problems, they’re very bad at anticipating problems. How many people change their diet upon being diagnosed with cancer? Most of them. How many people change their diet, to prevent cancer? Very few. And yet, it’s only by anticipating certain problems, that they can be solved.

Your brain is reasonably well equipped to understand linear growth: You save 500 bucks every month, you’re missing 5000 bucks for the new car you want to buy, so in ten months you’ll be able to afford it. Now comes exponential growth, where the rate of change in quantity is proportional to the quantity itself. As an example, a virus that increases active infections by 10% every day. This is already more difficult.

Unfortunately, there also exists such a thing as super-exponential growth. This is where you have a relative increase over time compared to a quantity, but that relative increase itself increases over time. And unfortunately, this is how new viruses jumping into a population tend to behave.

There is the r0, the number of people infected by one infected person. If we say the r0 is 2, then you deal with a virus that doubles per new infection. One person infects two, those two infect four, they infect eight people, andsoforth.

Unfortunately, exponential growth only applies, if you are dealing with a virus that itself is stable and unchanging. It is the nature of a novel virus that jumps into our species however, that it’s going to change: Those viral particles best capable of replicating will preferentially jump into other people.

And so what happens to monkeypox, is that its intrinsic r0 increases with every new replication cycle. Imagine it increases by just 1% every cycle. Imagine you start with an r0 of 0.9 outside the MSM demographic. After just eleven cycles, you’d have an r0 above 1, sufficient to sustain transmission.

An r0 above 1 is exponential growth, but an r0 that increases with every new iteration is called superexponential growth. You don’t recognize that you are dealing with intrinsic superexponential growth, because of two factors: Depletion of the viral incubator (MSM) and behavioral changes.

And yet, although you may not recognize superexponential growth, you are seeing its symptoms: In the coming weeks, the “gay STD” suddenly starts infecting children, women and elderly in growing numbers relative to its incubating demographic. It may be that total daily numbers go down globally, I’m pretty convinced they will go down in Europe and the US. Yet that merely means depletion of the incubating demographic, it doesn’t mean retreat of the existential threat.

Instead, if you want to see what’s really happening, you’ll need to watch the number of cases diagnosed in women. For the past few weeks, the relative increase in the number of women diagnosed has been greater than the relative increase in overall cases. That’s the warning sign that tells you whether Western civilization has sodomized a new pandemic into existence or not.

If you’re lucky you don’t see an increase in women diagnosed, but that won’t be sufficient to say you’re out of the woods. To truly be out of the woods, you would need to ensure it dies out in the third world countries, where most cases are not even being diagnosed. To illustrate my point, take a look at India. India has a total of nine cases. They have one case in a woman and one death. But in Western nations, women are less than 1% of total cases and deaths are less than 0.1% of total cases. In other words, you can be almost certain that India is currently missing at least 90% of monkeypox cases in the country.

The monkeypox pandemic comes at the worst possible time, as public health officials have destroyed all credibility they ever had. The 2% vaccination rate against COVID-19 in children under five properly illustrates this, this product should have never been approved. My only advice is to understand that this is an entirely different virus. Every outbreak needs to be understood on an individual basis, gut sentiments like “they want to make money” or “they’re fearmongering again” isn’t going to get us very far.

The current vaccines won’t be sufficient to end this outbreak and they may very well affect the evolutionary dynamics, but when it comes to high-risk individuals like children and elderly who are at high-risk of having been exposed, the benefits of vaccination look to me as if they will outweigh the downsides. You have to remember that this is no COVID. For COVID you have an IFR of about 0.000002 in children. For monkeypox, the IFR is about ten thousand times higher. Once we had four cases in children outside Africa, we already had one case that ended up in the ICU.

There are many things wrong with modern life, but you spend every day with a blessing, an act of profound mercy that you live entirely unaware of: Infant mortality rates of 0.5%. Your great-great-grandparents could expect to bury about a quarter of the children they gave birth to. And what I notice is as following: People are entirely blind to how fragile this blessing really is. They have no clue at all that our era is abnormal, that our blessing is fragile and fleeting.

People need to be far more grateful for this blessing and display humility before nature, otherwise it isn’t going to last. I will say it again:

-You need to shutdown international aviation. You really have no business traveling around the world. This pandemic started with gay men at international orgies. The Gay Pride on the canary islands drew 80,000 people and those people spread it around the world. This is an act of human hubris.

-You need to shut down the animal agriculture industry, where animals are kept alive by feeding them the very same antibiotics that you depend on to treat your own wounds in the hospitals. The bacteria are learning to resist those antibiotics and you have no proper replacement for them.

-You need to shut down the gay orgies. Sodomy is a sexual act that is intrinsically very competent at passing on pathogens, because the intestinal tract will develop very small tears that spill blood. It’s not designed with all sorts of mechanisms that allow it to avoid suffering damage from penetration by a penis. The vagina naturally lubricates and has a low PH and various commensal bacteria that protect it, the rectum doesn’t have these traits.

That’s the price you need to pay, if you want to keep 0.5% infant mortality rates. It requires humility before nature.

2 Comments

  1. Monkeypox virus is a DNA virus. SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus. RNA is less stable and much more likely to mutate. Monkeypox is not and there already exist vaccines with some cross-reactivity.

    I guess I’m not too surprised with your history of climate alarmism. You have value judgments about the precautionary principle that are different from others. Your overconfidence and quickness to get back to restrictions on freedom are sad to see given what the world has just experienced with SARS-CoV-2.

    • >Monkeypox virus is a DNA virus. SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus. RNA is less stable and much more likely to mutate.

      This is the wrong way to look at it.

      Observed mutation rates will depend, among other factors, on how strong the pressure to change is. When a virus has just jumped into a new species, pressure to mutate is relatively high. This is why we’re observing that the virus is mutating much faster than anticipated.

      After some time, observed mutation rates will decline, as the lowest hanging fruit will have been harvested.

      Upon entering our species, SARS-COV-2 was already well adapted to transmission in an immunologically naive population, so mutation rates were relatively low.

      In contrast, monkeypox is still in the process of learning to transmit itself in our species, so mutation rates are high.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.