Get ready for the pandemic of the boosted

There’s something important to discuss about the plan to give everyone boosters with the 2019 Wuhan spike protein. Imagine you had a generic virus, with twenty different types of antibodies that neutralize it. One day, a new version of the virus emerges spontaneously, that can escape one of these antibodies. Is this mutation going to spread? It’s hard to say, but the selective pressure on this escape mutation would be mild. It doesn’t matter much if you have one position where you evade an antibody, if you’re exposed to twenty different kinds of antibodies.

Now imagine a situation, where a virus is faced with just four different kinds of antibodies, binding to four different positions on one of its proteins. Humans used to have far more antibodies that work, but the virus jumped into mice and then jumped back into humans, so it now looks very different and out of the original twenty different antibodies, we’re now just left with four.

In most people, those four antibodies work well enough to neutralize the virus. Because those four antibodies still work, giving people boosters with an old vaccine still increases neutralization of the virus and thus looks initially like a good idea.

In a handful of people however, the body is still bad at producing antibodies after giving them these vaccines. What would the selective pressure be for this virus to evade one of these last four antibodies? We would expect the selective pressure to be much stronger now than it was back when the virus faced twenty different kinds of antibodies. Assuming all the antibodies have equal neutralizing potential, one mutation could slash the neutralizing potential by 25%. Whatever harm such a mutation causes to its ability to spread in unvaccinated people who have never been exposed to this virus now becomes massively outweighed by the benefit it delivers in vaccinated people.

And that’s what has me very concerned about the boosters being deployed now. I’m sure it sort of works for a couple of weeks in a handful of people to recall the same immune response once again. However, with this virus now being so far along in completely evading our immune response, selective pressure to evade what remains of our immune response is inevitably very high, much higher than it was for Delta.

So to illustrate what I mean, take a look at the numbers in Denmark.

Here are the numbers I showed you a few days ago:

Here you see 13.8% of people who get Omicron are not vaccinated. There’s a relatively straightforward explanation you could come up with for the relative lack of unvaccinated people getting infected: Unvaccinated people don’t really get to travel, so this outbreak begins with bourgeois urban young people who bring it back home from South Africa.

But if you wish to go with that explanation, you would expect that after a few days it begins to disseminate into the general population and those terrible anti-vaxxers begin to get what’s coming to them. And yet here are the numbers released today:

As you can see, the dates overlap. They’re looking at a different age category now though, so let’s grab this table from a few days later:

 

Now we can calculate what happened in the past thee days:

949 cases in boosted people.

7030 cases in double vaccinated people.

681 cases in unvaccinated people.

151 cases in once injected people.

Percentage wise, that looks as following:

949 / 8811 = 10.77%

7030 / 8811 = 79.79%

681 / 8811 = 7.7%

151 / 8811 = 1.71%

I believe the correct scientific term for this phenomenon you’re seeing here is called “run for the hills”.

So what has actually happened is that in recent days, this new variant of COVID moved away from unvaccinated people towards vaccinated and boosted people. It’s not a strong enough trend to argue “it has evolved mutations that adapt it to vaccinated people”. However, it does demonstrate that we’re not just dealing with overrepresentation of vaccinated people by virtue of the fact that it was seeded by air travelers.

The astute reader will notice that we’ve seen the same phenomenon happen for the “other variants” category, I don’t really have a proper explanation for that. It could be that some Omicron variants aren’t recognized as such. It could also be that for whatever reason they’re now testing very different demographics.

So now it’s time to discuss what this means. Let’s start with what we know. We don’t really know how this thing came into existence. It could have been an HIV patient, but right now the more likely explanation is that it emerged in mice. That’s what Geert van den Bossche has been warning about for a while now, that it could jump into another animal, change to fit that animal and then jump back into humans.

If this is what happened, that means it had to evolve to bind to a mouse ACE2 receptor, which looks different from a human ACE2 receptor. In that case, the evasion of most human antibodies is primarily a side-effect of the fact that it had to change its Spike protein to fit a different looking ACE2 receptor.

If this is what happened, it’s a far worse scenario than the originally proposed scenario, of an infection in an HIV patient. The reason is because it means some of the changes it inherited from its time in mice that it still has right now are probably detrimental to its adaptation to humans. That may explain why it looks milder. That also means it’s probably going to lose those changes and become more severe in the coming weeks, as it continues to evolve.

In the scenario of the HIV patient, it simply gradually changed in response to an antibody response that wasn’t strong enough to eradicate it. That’s a more pleasant scenario, because it would mean the version of Omicron we’re seeing now wouldn’t have mutations that enhance replication in mice at the cost of replication in humans.

And that gets us to the really dark scenario. As I’ve said before, you can’t look at South Africa and assume that you know what’s going to happen because we saw it happen in South Africa. South Africa is in summer right now, with a young population that is mostly unvaccinated and lived through massive waves of older variants and developed immunity in the process. In the Western world, the situation looks very different. It’s wishful thinking to assume the same thing will happen here as in South Africa.

Rather, what looks likely to me is that you’re now witnessing the ancestor of a new virus that is now going to learn through random mutation how to adapt to a unique new niche: The triple Wuhan spike vaccinated elderly Westerner. Your hospitalization or death is merely a side-effect of the need for this virus to learn how to survive and spread in the presence of your immune response against it.

All the vaccinations being given now merely make this worse, by increasing the size of the niche. Vaccinating the unvaccinated converts more people into deploying an antibody response that this virus is learning to use to its own advantage. Boostering the vaccinated means forcing the antibody response to increasingly resemble the ecological niche this virus is learning to thrive in. You will increase the amount of binding antibodies that don’t neutralize the virus but allow it to enter and replicate inside your own white blood cells.

In the current situation, where just a handful of spike directed antibodies in vaccinated people allow them to neutralize the virus and where 92.3% of infections take place in people who were vaccinated, Denmark is experiencing a situation in which there is huge evolutionary pressure on this virus, to develop mutations that allow it to evade our antibody response. Mutations that would have been selected against in the past because they make replication more difficult in unvaccinated people, are now free to spread.

Normie conservatives are telling you “COVID is now over”. However, you might have noticed that the Dutch government -which just declared a new lockdown- and most of the world’s epidemiologists and evolutionary biologists are not really nodding in agreement. It’s possible they made a terrible miscalculation of the kind that costs you the next election. It’s also possible that the normie conservatives got it wrong. What do you consider more likely?

The difference between normie conservatives and the governments that are panicking about this new variant, is that normie conservatives look towards the past: What happened in South Africa? The governments are attempting to look into the future: How is this virus now going to change and what will the impact be? The conclusion they’re drawing in Ireland and the Netherlands, is that it’s about to get much worse.

What this looks like to me, is that we’re witnessing the birth of a new SARS-COV-2 variant, that gradually learns how to survive in the bodies of people who took these vaccines. For elderly people that’s acutely dangerous, for younger healthier vaccinated people, it leads to a situation in which this virus evolves into something more resembling a chronic condition: You’re continually infected and reinfected, never quite able to overcome the virus, with your overall immune system suffering as a consequence.

If that sounds like a disaster to you, you’re right. The real disaster however, happened in the past: The mass vaccination campaign was the real disaster, what we’re witnessing now is just the logical consequence of the mass vaccination campaign. The virus overcame a hurdle that the experts expected would be impossible for it to overcome. Here you can see a study that said it would need twenty mutations to make a significant dent in our immune response, which practically everyone assumed would be too big of a hurdle. Well, life finds a way. Take it away Dr. Malcolm:

21 Comments

  1. Can’t argue with your reasoning. I am wondering if many people are going to find an infection hard to shake off, even if it’s not particularly damaging short term. Can’t be helpful longer term though, especially if the spike protein still has its nasty effects deeper in bodily systems. Is there any indication the omicron spike protein has or hasn’t changed in this regard (e.g. clotting effect)? I haven’t seen anything on that.

    • Look at this
      https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/has-omicron-shifted-receptor-binding
      Dr Malone discussing a paper claiming that omicron binds better to the cells in the upper respiratory tract – this makes it more infectious but less deadly. If the spike doesn’t get into the blood it cannot cause clotting.

      Given all the evil around I still cannot cheer – there are so many almost 100% vaxxed populations that are constantly selecting mutations that can turn deadly for the unvaxxed. A Marek scenario … . It is not sth that we can control right now I guess – the dices are rolling

  2. Thanks for this. Like someone else commented recently, I ran across your blog because of a reference to you on Naked Capitalism about 3 weeks back. Very good luck on my part, you are really excellent, like vanden Bossche if he could explain to the intelligent layman a little more clearly. I have two questions if you will indulge me.

    First, I’m curious about your background – I had assumed you were a biologically oriented researcher, but I dug back into some older posts and see you used to work for a crypto company.

    Second, I was listening to Del Bigtree today (from his show recorded 2 days ago), and he and his correspondent were discussing the idea that omicron might have been synthesized/GOF’d. Too many perfect mutations and no clear recent prior lineage. I don’t remember the ultimate source they were working from. I think they mentioned the mice theory as well. What do you think?

    Thanks, and again, really excellent stuff.

    • I was the one posted the link to this site on Nov 27’s NC post “Probable Vaccine-Escaping Covid Variant Sequenced in Gauteng, South Africa and Spreading Rapidly; Press Underplaying Downside Risk.”

      It did not last. Yves Smith banned me a few short days later when she disproved my opinion. Her site is full of one-sided commenters. Today many are whining about people not wearing masks lol. Suggesting that masks don’t work will likely get you banned from that site. Just saying…

      • Thanks for doing that then. I have been a fan of their covid coverage because I regard IM Doc as a national treasure, and they (both the administration and the commenters) have been on the side of a) questioning treatment policies, e.g., Ivermectin and b) tolerant of or promoting some aspects of vaccine dissent. I also like the anti-neoliberalism thing they have going generally.

        But yes, the mask stuff, and more particularly the “we’ve gotta lock down hard for as long as it takes and pay people to stay home until zero covid” stuff is ridiculous. Ain’t gonna happen, ain’t gonna work even more so.

        Also, I’ve grown tired of Yves’ nastiness. It was endearing at first, but now not so much.

        • Yes, IM Doc was the reason I visited NC. Not Yves or GM. I value solid and original opinion. Ragadast has very unique insight on Covid, right or wrong. He deserves much broader exposure.

      • Orca – Thank you for posting that to Nakedcap. I can’t even get any comment published, no matter how anodyne. Must have offended their censorbots, and been in their doghouse since. I do value having their global ‘informed’ commentariat, though quite a few just love the sound of their own voices… heheh but that’s normal for any sizeable group. It gives a quick flavour of what’s happening around the world sometimes.

        Anyways, I just wanted to chime in that the most ridiculous thing in the past week, as the Omicron fearporn was being cranked up, was that so many of the nakedcap commentariat chimed in to talk about how they’ve gone for their booster. This – from a site where the experts have said the booster is probably more counter-productive than helpful… it’s like watching lemming running faster off the cliff together, if that’s possible to imagine. So all their discussions about rising infections as the various vex campaigns get rolled out in different countries? Side effects discussions etc.. all that counted for nothing? Another friend said, sounds like just a group of intellectual masturbators.. when push comes to shove, they just end up meekly following what they think is the societal concensus, brain just shuts down again. Sadly, that seems accurate.

        • Yes, I really find that puzzling too — especially when GM mentioned that s/he had gotten boosted about a month before the advent of Omicron.

          Maybe they haven’t thought through the implications of OAS, the boosters and Omicron. I would like to read GM’s thoughts on the matter.

          But I don’t see how it could possibly be a good idea to further train your adaptive immune system to respond with wild-type spike antibodies, when it encounters a variant that has evolved to escape those very antibodies. It seems to me that it would be locking in your adaptive immune system to a less-than-useless response to this variant.

          • The comment thread there has exploded with a ton of folks all basically commenting that given the uncertainty with Omicron, they felt like they had no choice but to take the jab, even though they know it’s probably going to be useless. It really is incredible to watch their mental pretzels justifying how they gave in to self-inflicted fear.

            The ultimate irony is that they constantly laud IM DOC – who had taken great risk to tell of his own treatment protocols with Vit I (We call it VIM within our small group.. signifying vim and vigour), where he basically conducted a small-scale clinical trial, where patients had a choice to take VIM or the CDC protocol. ALL the VIM patient recovered quickly and tested negative by the 5th day, while most of the CDC-protocol patients were still testing positive on day 8 and suffering from symptoms.

            It seems like they keep letting themselves be programmed by MSM FUD on horse paste and don’t dare to commit to it, despite enough anec-data from IM DOC and other places around the world.

            FWIW, Thailand is not banning it and folks can get it OTC in pharmacies, with additional entrepreneurial folks selling bulk animal pills at 1/10 the price of the ‘human’ versions. Look at their case counts steadily dropping now. Indonesia has also been quietly using it.. population of over 200mil… negligible cases. Japan, India, big swarths of Africa now etc.

            Personally I’ve been using it twice a week. I figured Delta’s incubation period was 3 to 4 days, so didn’t want to let it get established for too long in my system. I just learnt that FLCCC seems to have updated their protocol and also recommend 2X a week now vs the previous 1X a week. If Omi does become the dominant strain later, I would go back to 1X a week, as that would increase my supply duration.. no concern about any side effects, just worried about the ability to resupply as the SG govt is dead set against it still. I’ve been exposed to confirmed covid cases for long stretches, quite symptomatic just before they had to quarantine etc.. so either VIM doing it’s magic, or I’m one of the 20% naturally immune… didn’t even feel a sniffle coming on.

        • I hear you on the VIM/IVM, and am with you. I’ve been on it prophylactically since Dec 2020. Twice a week since Delta became widespread in the US. I was using the horse paste for a long time but got some human variety from India a few months ago.

          I’ve seen it work to prevent infection at super-spreader events, where the person I put on IVM was the only one not to get infected; and I’ve seen it work in early treatment. In Delta, in my experience, it doesn’t work that well when started late (one week or more after symptoms start), and the person is starting from a low health baseline (obese, vitamin D deficient, etc.). It’s not a magic bullet, but I much prefer it over any of these 1st-gen vaccines that induce our bodies to produce an antigen with 78.4% human-like epitopes, and which do not provide sterilizing immunity.

          If they come out with an intranasal vaccine (which would elicit IgA’s and thus provide sterilizing immunity) with the human-like epitopes from the spike protein removed, I would consider it.

        • I was surprised that Yves published that comment. I got a ‘pass’ to post subsequently. Apparently, she keeps a tight grip on who is allowed to post there.

          I also posted the link to FLCCC when someone inquired about treatment protocol. It appears that no one heard of FLCCC there (because of IVM?). Some commenters were grateful to learn about FLCCC for the first time. I must say the establishment has been successful in controlling the narrative. Unfortunately when they are wrong, they will have harmed many people, especially the young. And they have been wrong too many times.

          • Yes, she does keep a tight leash on the comments, and does not suffer fools lightly. Her fuse seems to have gotten shorter, but she may be under a lot of strain because of her health and caring for her elderly mother.

            I think many of the long-timers there know about the FLCCC — IM Doc has said on more than one occasion I believe that the FLCCC will turn out to have been the heros of the pandemic.

            I’m glad I read your comment that day linking here.

  3. Quote:
    Rather, what looks likely to me is that you’re now witnessing the ancestor of a new virus that is now going to learn through random mutation how to adapt to a unique new niche: The triple Wuhan spike vaccinated elderly Westerner. Your hospitalization or death is merely a side-effect of the need for this virus to learn how to survive and spread in the presence of your immune response against it.

    This kinda sounds like what Dan and Karl Sirotkin claim is happening. Their claim is this virus is actually a deattenuating LAV(live attenuated virus) that is reverting back to its full virulence.

    https://harvard2thebighouse.substack.com/p/a-grin-without-a-cat

    • It is a dynamical system trying to settle in an equilibrium. The virus is not reverting back because the host is not the old one – it is the new species of tripple boostered westerner which is, due to the uniform and limited variety of antibodies, a sitting duck. What is frightening is if the obvious solution for the virus in order to adapt to the vaccinated is a mutation making it extremely deadly for the unvaxxed. You cannot rule it out.

  4. Excellent blog I check it every day. I just watched Jurassic Park the other day, I was imagining the Jeeps as a metaphor for the vaccines. All nice and peaceful, shiny and new, going along the tracks. All the newest technology. Then the dinos evolve and escape and tear the Jeeps apart, as everyone is now trapped inside and nowhere to run.

  5. Here in Florida, we were outside looking at the Christmas lights at a large mall. The place was packed and we saw almost no masking. No one seems to be worried about any of this COVID junk here.

    The only way this ends is when people accept that we will have to live with the virus and masking and lockdowns do nothing except harm people.

    Our demented fool of a President and his crackpot health advisors are predicting a long winter of death for the unvaccinated. Who’s listening to this pablum? They’ve been wrong about everything.

  6. In summary then, They rebranded the flu, murdered a few OAPs, fudged the data.

    BUT now the moronic sheep have entered the arms race, the scam will keep rolling, more gene therapy, more OAS, more gene therapy, until 2025 with new rounds of lockdowns/restrictions that will finish off the world’s economies for good, leading to massive unemployment and in turn the introduction of Universal Basic Income and the use of a digital currency managed by central banks. They turned an unremarkable cold virus into a permanent crisis to trojan in the dreaded beast system. –Genius

  7. There are some points of contention I have with your arguments.

    First off, the presented numbers do not prove that Omicron favors vaccinated people. This is underscored by the lack of an explanation for the same development with other variants. The reason for this is relatively simple: the vaccine does not provide reliable protection, regardless of the variant. Most people are vaccinated, so you see most cases in the vaccinated. They are the ones with a more active social life currently, so infection becomes more likely (take young people at pubs). This is NOT an indication of a negative effect of the vaccine (yet). It is, however, a clear indication of a lack of positive effects, which by itself is bad enough.

    Second, it remains to be seen whether Omicron replicates faster and what results this may or may not have. Mutations in viruses usually also have drawbacks. Otherwise, all existing respiratory viruses would have developed towards increased replication to overcome the immune system. This particular feat usually comes with a quicker symptom onset and/or increased damage to the infected. The virus will spread less well as a result.

    But it remains to be seen. You are of course correct in warning of complacency. On the other hand, being afraid only weakens your immune system. So chill out and take your vitamins, everyone.

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