Iran fits the usual pattern

If you pay attention to the news, you’ll notice Iran has been engaged in a bunch of bombing campaigns against other countries in the region. They dropped bombs on their allies in Syria, Iraq and now Pakistan, which responded by bombing Iran.

The oldest trick in the playbook to foster domestic support, is to terrorize people with external enemies. This is nothing new and people have observed it for Iran as well. Last year, someone noted that Iran seeks an external enemy, to distract from its domestic failures. We don’t know the degree of Iran’s involvement in Hamas attack Israel, but you could argue the Hamas-Israel war fits into the pattern too.

This leads us to the following question: Why does Iran face domestic instability? There are multiple factors. Iran is a rapidly secularizing nation, with a theocratic regime. It’s also a multicultural nation, with many different ethnic groups that harbor some desire for independence. The Azeri, the Kurds, the Baluchi, the Iranian Arabs who happen to live on top of Iran’s oil, these are some of the groups that harbor some desire for independence.

People generally don’t care for conflict, when things are going well. You don’t bother joining a protest or some militia when you can fulfill all your life’s wishes. But when the economic situation in a country deteriorates, ethnic, religious and ideological tensions simmering under the surface tend to escalate. And that just so happens to be the case in Iran.

In the West we are culturally and economically dominant, so we have the privilege of being able to keep people occupied with bullshit jobs. Even if you have no actual talents, you can just drink coffee, fill numbers into a spreadsheet for a megacorporation and you will receive your share of the economic surplus.

We have prestige. People speak our languages, study at our colleges, use our currencies, push our companies to ridiculous valuations (example: Koreans with Tesla), watch our movies, travel to visit our landmarks, so we don’t really have to do much, except preserving that prestige. Western people depend on the fact that non-Western people look up to us. When that spell breaks, it’s over.

In poorer countries, that doesn’t work. Nobody watches Iranian movies, nobody insists on traveling there, nobody wants to study there, nobody treats Iranian real estate as a store of value, nobody clicks on ads on an Iranian social media platform. A European guy’s name on your underpants that were manufactured in China will increase the profit margins, an Iranian dude’s name won’t.

To survive, people in Iran need to produce actual things of value, that you can physically grasp. In our world, anyone directly interacting with physical reality for a living is at the bottom of the social hierarchy. Unfortunately, directly interacting with physical reality also means that you can’t afford the privilege that American right wing low IQ low status white males have: To pretend that physical reality exists in stasis.

To an American right wing low IQ low status white male, global warming is a series of projections made by ivory tower intellectuals about the year 2100. But an Iranian, who lives in a country covered by deserts close to the equator, is experiencing the consequences of global warming right now.

Between 2015 and 2022, the number of Iranians employed in agriculture dropped by 1.3 million. That’s a quarter of the total population employed in agriculture. These people lived on lands that were once fertile, but now can no longer be used to produce food. The soils may have eroded, there may be too little rain, or the aquifer beneath their feet was depleted. When these things happen, you can’t earn a living growing food anymore and you have to leave.

Those millions of people dependent on agriculture move to the cities, where they end up living in slums. They don’t really have formal qualifications that would allow them to take a bullshit job at a college or an office, like people in the Western world. People protest against the droughts, which leads to violence.

To import stuff from other countries, you need currency with which to buy their stuff. You get the currency by exporting stuff. But just as in Argentina, which elected a crazy libertarian after their harvests failed and they suffered record inflation, Iran is losing its ability to export food. Iran went from exporting 2.7 billion dollar worth of food in 2017, to just 1.9 billion dollar of food by the end of 2022.

In Iran, food shortages are now beginning to emerge. The food inflation rate has surged beyond 50%. And in a country like the Netherlands most of your income goes to paying rent, transportation and utilities, but in a country like Iran, most of your income goes to paying for food, so the pain is massive for the population.

It’s not just the farmers who lost their jobs who are struggling. Most Iranians are now struggling. So if you wonder why Iran has been bombing just about the whole region in the past few weeks, these two things are probably connected.

What we’re seeing in Iran is not very unusual. It’s similar to what we saw in Syria, where a record drought forced farmers to move into overpopulated cities before the civil war ignited. It’s also similar to Argentine, where the poor soybean harvest reduced exports and thereby devalued the currency.

Climate change turns stable nations into unstable nations. It turns unstable nations into failed states. If you live in the imperial core, if you’re not forced to interact with physical reality, you have the privilege of being able to deny it. In Iran, people don’t have that privilege. They’re living with the consequences.

29 Comments

  1. Meh, I’m super bored so I’ve decided to start posting on here again. After a week long hiatus, I have checked myself back into the mental asylum. I’ll try not to annoy you like I did the last time.

    Whatever life holds in store for me, I will never forget these words:

    “With great power, comes great responsibility.”

    This is my gift, my curse. Who am I? I’m an autistic low status white male:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5n8bMuZGipU&pp=ygUVU3BpZGVybWFuIGZpbmFsIHN3aW5n

    • In all seriousness though, I’m sure Iran will do just fine in the years ahead:

      – Excellent demographics (very large young population)

      – One of the best performing stock markets in the world for the last few years

      – Third ranked country in the world for proven oil reserves (behind Venezuela and Saudi Arabia), second ranked country for proven natural gas reserves (behind Russia)

      – Strong ties with Russia and China, who combined are almost certainly stronger militarily than NATO

      – No globohomo (cultural Marxism)

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ww1e3gD7ZwM&pp=ygUOUmFvdWwgcGFsIGlyYW4%3D

      Russia has hundreds of millions of acres of Chernozem, the most fertile soil on the planet. Their massive grain surpluses will more than offset any potential food shortages in Iran due to climate change.

      • >Strong ties with Russia and China, who combined are almost certainly stronger militarily than NATO

        Russia’s most professional and effective force is a mercenary company that tried to coup its own government (Wagner Group). Modern nations where mercenaries are an important factor in politics are corrupt shitholes with incompetent bureaucracies. The U.S and its vassals might be incompetent but not so incompetent that the Varangian Guard could potentially decide who’s Emperor (Unfortunately)

        China is a paper tiger, look to the Korean War at the effectiveness of the Chinese people at war. Or literally any other war China has fought in its history, great numbers, but weak hearts and arms.

        On paper China and Russia combined don’t even have an equal number of military aircraft to the United States, nor do they have anywhere near the number of modern MBTs (Tanks from the 70s don’t count) Nor a Navy anywhere near comparable. The 2 gorrilion glorious communist warriors of Chyna only exist to soak up howitzer shells like their esteemed forebears in the Korean War.

        Russia can barely conquer Ukraine, you’re telling me these two nations could stand a chance in a conventional conflict with NATO? Nah.

        China and Iran are suffering desertification, they’re both losing thousands of square kilometers a year. That’s not to their benefit. Russia isn’t just going to be having to feed Iran, they’re going to have to feed the entire 3rd world, and even parts of China in the far-off future. Of-course the rest of Europe and the United States will get to compete for the pleasure; as our governments will see it as far more important to ensure Shaniqua can live to pump out twelve children rather than addressing why she’s always starving (That’s hard and hurts people’s feelings)

        As the climate migrations start, all the low status white males are going to be disappointed when the regime which explicitly calls itself anti-racist and anti-fascist starts to replace their own people with climate refugees instead of sinking the refugee’s ships.

      • Hiw dare you? How dare you providing another dimension to a one dimensional selfjerk of an argument? How dare you?! I condemn you and all of your white low iq bloodline for that you are seeking truth outside the one dimensional gospel!

        • LOL!

          Hey Genomir, I wish I had an I.Q. of 149 (Mensa) as well, you are very fortunate. I’m too retarded to even figure out how to install a profile picture (like you have).

          Judging by your name, do you have a career in a biology-related field? I remember this old comment I wrote that you replied to:

          https://www.rintrah.nl/the-left-as-a-parasite/#comment-9416

          So since you have a high I.Q. and extensive knowledge of biology, I thought I’d ask you your opinion of whether it’s Radagast or Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche who is correct in their respective opinions when it comes to the end game of the SARS2 pandemic? Slow die-off, or fast die-off?

          • Both are off-track on their assumptions. And both of them are too emotionally invested in their hypothesis. Rada is doing mightg fine in his research by the way on that topic. Given that he is not of such background be easily surpasses most of my colleagues in that field. See, i give credit where credit is due. I came to this blog because of his plague related aericles but instay for the giggles. Unfortunately you don’t peovide quality giggles. You can try harder. I won’t bite back at you the first 7 times. I promise 馃槈

  2. This page by the USDA suggests that nothing remarkable happens with Iranian agriculture, land use, etc.

    https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=IR

    All countries experience improved agricultural productivity and migration to cities; Iran is no exception.

    Iran is not a backward, obscure nation; it is a regional superpower with 5,000 years of history and highly developed science and technology.

    Persia, the former name for Iran, went through various catastrophes, such as the Genghis Khan depopulation, which reduced its population from 40 million people to 10 million people. As of now, Iran has 86 million people living there.

    Iran has interests and is sensitive to other players encroaching on them. Hence its military activity in the area.

    I have no opinion on its internal politics

    • Igor,
      No arguments and facts beyind the one dimensional folly of the author are allowed here. Haven’t you learnt your lesson? Behave yourself or Rada might go and reproduce (oh the horror)!

      • Let’s not kid ourselves: Iran has serious ecological issues, just like everywhere else.

        Humanity is in overshoot.

        Holding up a couple of stats, like a politician hanging his whole argument off of one figure, isn’t going to change that.

  3. Russian food exports to Iran will increase and Iran will in turn increase exports of defense equipment to Russia. China, Russia and Iran will be the Axis of disorder at least if you look at it from the West’s point of view. However, climate change will create disorder for this new alliance as well.

  4. The Houthis are also backed by Iran, and they’re the ones disrupting global shipping. So, two of their proxies going on the offensive. I think the Iranians prioritize victory over the Zionists more than they care about profits from commerce and are in fact willing to bleed a little bit in order to score a win.

    • The CIA agents in the media consider it impossible that the protestors and reformists in Iranian WANTED a more aggressive foreign policy. They (being quasi-autistic) think that everyone else just wants to be like them, and cluelessly project that onto foreign peoples.

      This also shows up when they discuss wars. Children are the ones who focus on TOYS and STUFF and GEAR– so that’s all they discuss in the context of societies going to war, conflicts… who has the coolest stuff. In reality, tech makes zero difference. The technologically superior side stalemated in Korea, lost in Vietnam, and collapsed in Afghanistan. What matters is unity, and NATO/US elites have almost nothing left.

      • TBH, one of the pleasant surprises of the Biden Admin (not that there are many of those) is watching the CIA/Pentagon get cucked by Russians, Afghans, Arabs, Iranians…

    • The children of the Iranians who fled the ayatollahs and came to my country in the late 80s have become doctors, engineers and other high-status professions in the vast majority of cases. That’s what happens when it’s the elite of a country that flees. The Iranian immigrants have been uniquely successful.

  5. Obama’s failure to support the Iranian Green Movement of 2009 was one of the most significant wastes of opportunity in his whole tenure. Potential for massive pivot in geo-political benefit. Waste too many of those and the game is over.

    • The paleocons will be pissed off, but I think you’re right. Iranians don’t want this regime, but they’re stuck with it. It’s unfair, people should not have to live like this.

  6. >> But just as in Argentina, which elected a crazy libertarian after their harvests failed and they suffered record inflation..

    First: if you print money like crazy to “buy” an election (which finally failed) you get record inflation.
    Second: this “crazy libertarian” seems to have read your text: “The left as a parasite”.

    Milei said in Davos:

    “The essential problem for the West today is that we must not only confront those who, even after the fall of the wall and the overwhelming empirical evidence, continue to strive for impoverishing socialism; but also our own leaders, thinkers and academics who, under a misguided theoretical framework, undermine the foundations of the system that has given us the greatest expansion of wealth and prosperity in our history.”
    […]
    “Regrettably, these harmful ideas have been strongly propagated in our society. The neo-Marxists have managed to co-opt the common sense of the West. They have succeeded in this through the appropriation of the media, of culture, of universities and yes, even of international organisations.”

    Obviously a crazy man…

    • So many words, so much bullshit. This man does not understand that we live in a world with physical limits. Just implement some financial wizardry and everything will be fine. Milei will destroy Argentina. Libertarianism only works in theory, just like communism which cannot be implemented in reality without disastrous results.

  7. Do not believe too much of what the western MSM propaganda machine spits out. Things are not what they seem. The global East and South is fighting a war of strategic exhaustion, as against the global west “rules based” order Z.O.G machine. Everything going on is just a small part of a massive collective global strategic exhaustion strategy. Iran taking out targets in Iraq, Pakistan and vice versa, Syria etc is just taking out US proxies with the permission of the target countries (except Syria). Egypt was the prize and Egypt is being kept afloat via a Chinese funded currency swap arrangement, whilst global trade is disrupted. Yes, there needed to be an IDF response so that the Yemeni goat herders could do their global trade thing. in direct response to the Nordstream destruction, as Russian payback. Other than supporting proxies, Iran will stay neutral. China, Russia and DPRK are running this strategic exhaustion operation – part of which is to effect regime change in British Palestine. When the Israel Zionist regime is defeated, then AIPAC becomes obsolete, then the USA becomes geopolitically directionless. The interesting development is Jordan attacking the CIA’s captagon manufacturing and distribution operations in Syria – that the CIA was sending to Ukraine. This is very interesting, the Pentagon attacking a CIA operation. The Pentagon generals can see the strategic exhaustion trap, but the AIPAC captured US politicians and the Z.O.G controlled White House still act at the direction of the Zionist regime, thus continuing the depletion and exhaustion of remaining US weapons and ammunition reserves. The next move is the Chechens going in as against the IDF and then at that same time the DPRK making a ground offensive against the South. Then China will make its move on their territorial claims (of which there are many).

  8. 2,700 years of recorded glorious history, and the Mesopotamian tradition which they inherited, make them resiliant enough, I am sure. They are too important, too glorious, too historical, and too big to fail.
    Greece is also historical, important etc, but we are not independent, so there’s no visible end to our decline.
    Iran however IS independent. They will adapt.

  9. I just had a brief dialogue about modern Greek monarchy (first a Bavarian king, then a Danish king and his royal house consequently).
    And I remembered the cultural interchanges (‘loans’).
    And then I just realized that America (the USA) eventually came from the glorious Persian Empire -> through Alexander the Great -> through Rome -> through Christian Rome (the Eastern part) -> through marriages with ‘Byzantine’ Princesses etc -> through European monarchy -> through the transformation of the British Monarch -> into the American President of the American Federation/Empire.

      • Yes. However, there are practices and patterns. Some are deeply rooted. If we trace their roots, we may be surprised.
        Surely, some patterns are just rooted in the way our brains are constructed.
        In many fields, though, people just didn’t reinvent the wheel.
        One of them are the epics. See here about some of the roots of the Iliad:
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ao2sps9bR4
        It contains another interesting piece of info: the Hittites recorded ancient languages and recited their songs to cope with droughts!… (also relevant to this post by Radagast)
        There’s so much we don’t know, but some people including Greeks, Iranians, Hittites, just helped preserve past knowledge…

        • They were Gods, that’s why they called themselves as much. You are a believer in the Mediterranean, I admire that. But many cultures have similar wisdom. Norse Mythology actual explains what happened to the Greek Gods after the world became darker. Christianity explained what happens after Norse Mythology. We’re living in the battle for Armageddon.

          Soon, a new Golden Age will begin. The Greek Gods were corrupt, not perfect. They raped, and cheated. The new Gods, they will be perfect. Perfect versions of all Gods. The Gods themselves are growing as people, they were here with us the whole time. Learning with man.

          • I love good story-telling (probably everyone does). I am guessing, story-telling was a great part of our ancestors lives. I wish we could have more of that, along with some good treats. A couple of days ago I pointed to Marcel Mauss’ “The Gift”. Good story-telling is a gift (a talent) and also a gift to share. Radagast is a good story teller. Odysseus was expected to tell stories (so was Sinbad, I think), and they honored him for that. You also have a talent, BUT we lack the milieu of story-telling as we don’t get together anymore *sigh*

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The patients in the mental ward have had their daily dose of xanax and calmed down it seems, so most of your comments should be automatically posted again. Try not to annoy me with your low IQ low status white male theories about the Nazi gas chambers being fake or CO2 being harmless plant food and we can all get along. Have fun!

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