I’ve noticed that people tend to be quite willing to speak honestly about the vaccines, when they haven’t realized the implications themselves yet. Consider this quote from a South African doctor in Gauteng:
From mainstream media, to the vaccine developers, to those who reject the “new normal”, almost everyone is very eager right now to craft a narrative where this new variant is hyped up. Unfortunately that’s hard to reconcile with what the doctors in Gauteng are reporting. What they are reporting however, is also hard to reconcile with the idea of an effective vaccine.
If you see that 65% of patients are not vaccinated, you’ll assume “the vaccines are still working quite well against this new variant”. That is, until you remember that this is South Africa we’re speaking about, where most young adults are not vaccinated. Fortunately they keep proper statistics, which you can find here. Apparently the patients now are young adults, so I selected the 18-49 cohort and looked at the vaccination rate in Gauteng. Here’s the result:
So, we have 65% who are unvaccinated, most of the rest are half vaccinated and some are fully vaccinated. The graph I’m showing you above includes everyone in this age category who received at least one vaccine:
In other words, it includes the partially vaccinated people. So 35% of Gauteng’s hospitalized patients are partially or fully vaccinated. For the relevant age cohort, the partially or fully vaccinated percentage is 32%. What does that look like to you? To me it looks like the vaccine has no significant effect on your risk of being hospitalized by this variant.
Keep in mind, the information I’m giving you here is merely a derivative of the information we were given by a hospital worker in South Africa. If the head of the ICU is wrong or their hospital is not representative of the overall situation, then everything else I wrote here is useless too. But if we can trust the information we receive, then this doesn’t look good.
Antibody dependent enhancement can be an issue in people who were vaccinated or went through a natural infection. However, there’s an apparent issue vaccinated people face to a far worse degree than people who went through a natural infection: Original antigenic sin.
Original antigenic sin is the term used to refer to the problems the immune system faces in responding to new threats after exposure to previous threats that looked similar to the new threat. The response to the new threat often ends up less effective than it would have been if it had never been exposed to the previous threat.
A natural infection will encourage your body to recognize almost all proteins in the virus. The vaccine encourages your body to produce an immune response focused entirely on the spike protein, because it only makes your cells produce the spike protein. Why the vaccine developers went for this strange new approach whereas India and China are giving their people vaccines based on the whole virus is a mystery to me.
If you get exposed to the virus after receiving these Western vaccines, your body doesn’t learn to focus on the other proteins like the Nucleocapsid protein. Because the antibodies against the Spike protein immediately jump on the opportunity when this virus enters your body, you never really develop the opportunity to develop broad immunity again. With the boosters, you also cause a reduction in breadth in antibodies focused on the Spike protein, making it more difficult for your immune system to respond to variants that have undergone mutations in the Spike protein.
If that’s the issue we face with this new Omikron variant, you would expect the outcome to be that vaccinated people can’t really fight off this virus: Their body is stuck responding with an ineffective immune response against the Spike protein. What will be really interesting is to see what the rates of survival are going to be in South Africa for hospitalized patients who are vaccinated and for those who are not vaccinated.
I would personally expect that the survival rates for vaccinated people who are hospitalized are going to be lower. You already tend to see this in the United Kingdom: Vaccinated people are underrepresented among those who are hospitalized, but over-represented among hospitalized patients who die.
To boil this down in simple English: When the vaccine induced immune response is not good enough to keep you from getting sick it actually generally ends up making you sicker, because it prevents your body from coming up with an immune response that does work.
If we see no evidence of vaccinated South Africans in hospitals dying at higher rates than unvaccinated hospitalized patients in the next few weeks, that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear yet: South Africa was pretty late with vaccinating its young adults. They have a far higher share of the population who went through a natural infection before being vaccinated than countries like Germany and Australia, that succeeded for a long time in keeping infections rare. It’s the people who were never exposed to this virus before receiving this vaccine who are most vulnerable to new variants.
In addition, South Africa doesn’t have something that is now unfortunately quite common in much of Europe: The phenomenon of the triple vaccinated elderly. As mentioned earlier, the third injection causes a decrease in breadth of the immune response against the Spike protein.
This makes perfect sense of course: If you continually expose your immune system to massive doses of an alien protein that continually looks identical to previous exposures to that alien protein, your immune system will optimize itself to defend against that particular version of the protein.
Israel is going to ban all foreigners from entering the country. That’s kind of hard to reconcile with the idea of this vaccine being our ticket back to normal, but it very much fits the warning from scientists like Geert van den Bossche, who warned us that these vaccines turn us into sitting ducks for new variants.
I will repeat what I have argued earlier: As long as we have no way to repair the immune response of vaccinated people, who are now stuck with immune systems that are focused on an old version of the spike protein found in the initial strain of the virus, the only real solution we have is to encourage mass migration, to build a big shield around the vaccinated minority of the world’s population. Vaccinated people, particularly vaccinated elderly, should migrate to places where vaccinated people are still a minority of the population.