Orthopox viruses killed 300 million people last century, most of them children. I think we’re all surprisingly casual about having an orthopox virus spread around the world. And so as unpopular as this topic is, I have to provide you with an update. If you look back at my previous posts on monkeypox, you can see some of the claims I made:
-Gay men are the incubating demographic. Transmissibility increases as it spreads among them, but this eventually results in a rising share of cases outside gay men.
-The virulence should be expected to be positively correlated to its transmissibility and is likely going to increase as the transmission chains lengthen.
-Mass gatherings of gay men are dangerous, as novel recombinant strains can easily come into existence at such events, as monkeypox is very competent at producing such recombinant strains.
Well monkeypox was a lamestream media hoax panic hysteria so all of that turned out to be wrong, right?
Well bear with me as I run you through the numbers.
To start with, we’re going to look at spread outside of the incubating demographic again.
From my previous post:
So let’s look at the numbers from the WHO. As of 19 September, they reported 32125 total cases with available demographic data. 830 (2.6%) of those are female, 86 (0.3%) are children aged 0-4. Now we will look at 5 september. On 5 september they reported 27448 total cases with available demographic data. Of those cases 496 (1.8%) are female, 43 (0.2%) are children aged 0-4.
So in a period of two weeks, total cases increased by 17%, cases in women increased by 67% and cases in children 0-4 increased by 100%. Or to put it differently, during the last two weeks for which we have data we saw as many of the highest risk demographic catch this virus as during the whole preceding period.
Now we will look at the numbers again.
Here are the data I got on November 11:
Of all 45477 cases with available data, 3.1% (1411/45477) are female. A total of 141 out of 46185 cases with age available are children under 4 (0.3%).
So bear with me. We have 581 new female cases, out of 13352 new cases up until November 11. That means 4.3% of new cases are females. Unless these are the trendy new females with beards and dicks, it’s ceasing to behave like a gay STD. For the children, 0.39% of the new cases are in kids under four. You have 4.69% of new cases here, that just very clearly don’t fit the “promiscuous gay STD” demographic. As this happens it becomes harder to track this virus and so you can expect a resurgence. A doctor in rural Mexico just won’t expect monkeypox when a 3 year old kid has a rash, so it becomes easier for this virus to spread.
Now look at the latest update:
Of all cases with available data, 3.2% (1502/47273) are female. A total of 148 (0.3%) out of 47,975 with age available were aged 0-4.
So out of 1796 new cases with data, 5.1% are female. And out of 1790 new cases with age available, 0.39% are once again children under four. You can see here that there’s a steady rise in cases in women. And now we’re at 5.49% of cases that don’t fit the “promiscuous gay STD” demographic.
But even I am not autistic enough to make a monkeypox post where I just subtract WHO numbers from each other. No, I have something else I wish to show you. Remember how I said that virulence is likely to increase over time? Well have a look with me at cases in the Americas:
Versus deaths in the Americas, same timescale:
Deaths are going up, as cases are going down. It could be that it’s spilling from healthy sexy looking gay men who were first to have a train pulled on them, into sickly looking not so-sexy gay men who are only getting sodomized by desperate men with beer goggles in a bar around closing time. That’s what an optimist would believe. A pessimist would believe that the lineages that survive human behavioral changes are the more virulent ones. Remember, this is not SARS-COV-2: This virus is still very far from reaching peak fitness, so virulence and transmissibility are still expected to be positively correlated.
Finally, have a look at the daily confirmed cases:
This doesn’t look to me like it wants to return to zero. The main factor in this are Latin American nations, like Mexico and Brazil, where cases seem to be increasing again. This is what I was warning about months ago: It doesn’t really matter whether you manage to stamp it out in Europe and North America. If you don’t manage to stamp it out everywhere, then in a few months you’ll find cases popping up again, this time better adapted variants that have learned how to more effectively spread themselves.
And then there’s the whole part where people just stopped getting tested. The first guys with monkeypox you’ll find, are the ones who are typically out of the closet and well connected to healthcare clinics. After a while however, you end up with cases in people who don’t seek out medical attention. And so cases will look like they’re going down a lot, when in reality you’re also just finding a declining share of cases.
That’s all for today, please stay safe everyone, wear a cork in your anus and try not to stick your penis where other guys poop.