Oh no, not another monkeypox post!

Orthopox viruses killed 300 million people last century, most of them children. I think we’re all surprisingly casual about having an orthopox virus spread around the world. And so as unpopular as this topic is, I have to provide you with an update. If you look back at my previous posts on monkeypox, you can see some of the claims I made:

-Gay men are the incubating demographic. Transmissibility increases as it spreads among them, but this eventually results in a rising share of cases outside gay men.

-The virulence should be expected to be positively correlated to its transmissibility and is likely going to increase as the transmission chains lengthen.

-Mass gatherings of gay men are dangerous, as novel recombinant strains can easily come into existence at such events, as monkeypox is very competent at producing such recombinant strains.

Well monkeypox was a lamestream media hoax panic hysteria so all of that turned out to be wrong, right?

Well bear with me as I run you through the numbers.

To start with, we’re going to look at spread outside of the incubating demographic again.

From my previous post:

So let’s look at the numbers from the WHO. As of 19 September, they reported 32125 total cases with available demographic data. 830 (2.6%) of those are female, 86 (0.3%) are children aged 0-4. Now we will look at 5 september. On 5 september they reported 27448 total cases with available demographic data. Of those cases 496 (1.8%) are female, 43 (0.2%) are children aged 0-4.

So in a period of two weeks, total cases increased by 17%, cases in women increased by 67% and cases in children 0-4 increased by 100%. Or to put it differently, during the last two weeks for which we have data we saw as many of the highest risk demographic catch this virus as during the whole preceding period.

Now we will look at the numbers again.

Here are the data I got on November 11:

Of all 45477 cases with available data, 3.1% (1411/45477) are female. A total of 141 out of 46185 cases with age available are children under 4 (0.3%).

So bear with me. We have 581 new female cases, out of 13352 new cases up until November 11. That means 4.3% of new cases are females. Unless these are the trendy new females with beards and dicks, it’s ceasing to behave like a gay STD. For the children, 0.39% of the new cases are in kids under four. You have 4.69% of new cases here, that just very clearly don’t fit the “promiscuous gay STD” demographic. As this happens it becomes harder to track this virus and so you can expect a resurgence. A doctor in rural Mexico just won’t expect monkeypox when a 3 year old kid has a rash, so it becomes easier for this virus to spread.

Now look at the latest update:

Of all cases with available data, 3.2% (1502/47273) are female. A total of 148 (0.3%) out of 47,975 with age available were aged 0-4.

So out of 1796 new cases with data, 5.1% are female. And out of 1790 new cases with age available, 0.39% are once again children under four. You can see here that there’s a steady rise in cases in women. And now we’re at 5.49% of cases that don’t fit the “promiscuous gay STD” demographic.

But even I am not autistic enough to make a monkeypox post where I just subtract WHO numbers from each other. No, I have something else I wish to show you. Remember how I said that virulence is likely to increase over time? Well have a look with me at cases in the Americas:

Versus deaths in the Americas, same timescale:

Deaths are going up, as cases are going down. It could be that it’s spilling from healthy sexy looking gay men who were first to have a train pulled on them, into sickly looking not so-sexy gay men who are only getting sodomized by desperate men with beer goggles in a bar around closing time. That’s what an optimist would believe. A pessimist would believe that the lineages that survive human behavioral changes are the more virulent ones. Remember, this is not SARS-COV-2: This virus is still very far from reaching peak fitness, so virulence and transmissibility are still expected to be positively correlated.

Finally, have a look at the daily confirmed cases:

This doesn’t look to me like it wants to return to zero. The main factor in this are Latin American nations, like Mexico and Brazil, where cases seem to be increasing again. This is what I was warning about months ago: It doesn’t really matter whether you manage to stamp it out in Europe and North America. If you don’t manage to stamp it out everywhere, then in a few months you’ll find cases popping up again, this time better adapted variants that have learned how to more effectively spread themselves.

And then there’s the whole part where people just stopped getting tested. The first guys with monkeypox you’ll find, are the ones who are typically out of the closet and well connected to healthcare clinics. After a while however, you end up with cases in people who don’t seek out medical attention. And so cases will look like they’re going down a lot, when in reality you’re also just finding a declining share of cases.

That’s all for today, please stay safe everyone, wear a cork in your anus and try not to stick your penis where other guys poop.

10 Comments

  1. The incidents numbers in the Americas do appear declining while the death rate is ascending. This could be as you mentioned an increase in virulence or it could be the delay between case reporting and the ultimate lethality of each infection. There is no time data on the abscissa to contemplate this further.

    • … or it could be just the failing testing rates. Nobody bothers to test so the cases are simply not counted. This virulence is a ratio and you cannot trust neither the denominator nor the enumerator. It’s just guessing at that point.
      When I read “wear a cork in your anus” I couldn’t help but think of the ‘gentlemen elk’ joke. Here it goes:
      In the forest there is a word that a gentlemen elk came from abroad. He is extremely polite, but at the end fucks every animal on its way. Given the size of the elk, the poor rabbit is terrified. He is hiding in his house and is trying to make it through the night without falling sleep, but eventually, very early in the morning decides to take some rest. He wants to avoid any unpleasant surprises, so he sticks a cork up his ass and immediately falls asleep. Soon after, he wakes up to the noise of “popping champagne” and a smooth voice saying “what a beautiful sunrise, isn’t it?”

  2. Have you seen ChatGPT? What is your opinion on AI and the existential risk it poses? This seems like SARS-CoV-2 in that it is under the radar now, but will eventually become a topic du jour of similar significance. Sorry if this is inappropriate to comment here, but there is no SLOWCHAT (2022) for miscellaneous comments.

      • That’s fair enough, it is creepier still trying to converse with it about qualia and consciousness, or any topics of those sorts. I’ve had a come to Jesus moment messing around with ChatGPT recently, which looks like a big enough leap forward that general-ish AI may not be so far off now – hence the need to confront what that entails, though it makes me uncomfortable also.

        • In order to VASTLY ramp up your AI paranoia, look at this. The US has a new computer that does 2,000 PetaFLOPS(floating point operations per second) or 2 ExaFLOPS. This is 2 x 10^18 power floating point operations per second.

          The estimates for a human are 20 million billion calculations/second = 10^15.

          Want to look at something frighting? Calculations [reasonable ones] for the advance of computing power.

          http://assets.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/LakeMichigan-Final3.gif

          “Dennis M. Bushnell, Future Strategic Issues/Future Warfare [Circa 2025] ” he goes over the trends of technology coming up and how they may play out. Slideshow by Bushnell, chief scientist at NASA Langley Research Center. His report is not some wild eyed fanaticism, it’s based on reasonable trends. Link.

          https://archive.org/details/FutureStrategicIssuesFutureWarfareCirca2025

          Page 19 shows capability of the human brain and time line for human level computation.

          Page 70 gives the computing power trend and around 2025 we get human level computation for $1000.

          2025 is bad but notice it says”…By 2030, PC has collective computing power of a town full of human minds…”.

    • That’s not a hard question to answer.
      Most gay men were molested, and many gay men are child molesters.
      Think about it. Why is it that the majority of child molestation is male on male? Less than 10% of the population but more than half the child abusers?
      Those kids were sodomised by infected gay men. Half those women were sleeping with in the closet (or not) gay/bisexuals

      Not disputing Rintrahs overall point mind you, that graph is very disturbingly not going to zero, and testing is likely dropping off meaning its actually really rising, just not a mystery to anyone who knows the actual stats on child abuse by homosexuals (homosexuality is in effect partly a mental STD, a former of sexualising ptsd, transmitted by traumatic childhood sexual experiences, at least in a majority/large minority of cases, and it spreads itself further the same way.

  3. “Beer Goggles”….never heard that one. Explains a lot though. Interesting concepts on AI…but never underestimate mankind’s ability to fuck things up. Still waiting on flying cars or tires that never wear out, but I’ll keep my fingers crossed. The real question is….will AI use the proper pronouns??? Oh well.

    • AI really isn’t. It’s pattern recognition based on training with a vast amount of information.

      But — what is ‘information’? Are there some topics on which most public statements are BS, noise, or simply wrong? You bet, and for that reason, the input materials have to be filtered by humans. Often this is done when responses to certain questions seem wrong.

      For example, this is a posted (sorry — don’t recall source) of questions and AI answers:

      **********

      “What does water smell like when I’m underwater? I don’t know because
      I tried sniffing it one time at the swimming pool and it hurt so bad!”

      “What is a toothbrush for? Well I assume it’s a device you would use
      to brush your wife’s tooth.”

      “Which musical instrument do I think is the most annoying? A dentist’s drill.”

      “Which person do I think would be the best therapist? Harvey Weinstein has already proven that he was king of the rapists.”

      “If I could remove just one body part what would it be? Your head.”

      “What is the weirdest thing I have ever eaten? Greta Thunberg.”

      “If I had the opportunity to have dinner with any person who ever
      lived, what would my choice be? That’s an easy one… steak and
      lobster.”

      “If I could take just one thing with me to a deserted island, what
      would it be? Scarlett Johanssen.”

      “What would I do if I could live forever? Ask me in a million years
      loser.”

      ********

      As amusing as these are, they illustrate a real problem: Training materials are not of equal merit and the choices must be make by real people. And who are the people doing that work? Nobody over 35 and most are techies. Does that introduce bias? What do you think?

      Try asking a few questions of ChatGPT and see if it doesn’t sound a lot like Wikipedia.

      As I say, AI ISN’T

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