I’ve made a few posts about Scotland now, for a number of reasons. To start with, you have to give the British credit where credit is due: When it comes to SARS-COV-2, they gather a lot of data. In addition to this, they tend to be a few months ahead of the rest of the Western world, as they began vaccinating people very early on. Finally, Scotland has extremely high vaccination rates, even compared to the rest of the UK and so they give us a relatively clear look at how the virus behaves when you don’t have a lot of unvaccinated people left.
There are other aspects that make Scotland less interesting however. Large parts of Scotland are relatively insulated from this virus, by low population density. This is not true of course for the bigger cities, like Edinburgh and Aberdeen, so that’s where I wish to look. We’re first going to look at data from the ZOE app, to see what’s going on in Edinburgh:
The ZOE app involves people reporting their symptoms, it thereby tries to estimate what percentage of the population currently has SARS-COV-2. In Edinburgh, the estimate would be 10.5% on July the 11th. At least 82.3% of adults in Edinburgh have had two shots, 73.7% have had three shots, 93.3% above 75 have had a fourth shot. What has the result been? Unprecedented mass infection, in a time when the virus is supposed to lay low. In July around this time, there were effectively zero cases in Edinburgh.
Have people just become hypochondriacs? Well no, we can validate the result by looking at RNA in sewage:
Maybe I’m just cherrypicking a big city that makes for a good story?
Well, to check that we can observe another big city, Glasgow:
Again, record numbers of infections, in the middle of July, when respiratory viruses are supposed to be doing poorly. Looking at the map, cases in both of Scotland’s biggest cities are estimated at around 100,000 per million people, that is, 1 in 10 people has SARS-COV-2 in their biggest cities currently.
It’s clear from these results that the population is not developing immunity against this virus. Rather, it looks as if the population is becoming increasingly susceptible to this virus. Since the start of the Omicron era, active infections in Scottish cities have never dropped below the highest peaks of the pre-Omicron era. SARS-COV-2 would seem to be turning into a chronic syndrome for many people.
Through original antigenic sin, the human body is placed at a disadvantage against SARS-COV-2. When a new variant infects us, we develop an immune response based on the immune response against the variant we were first exposed to (for most people this will be Wuhan through the vaccine). If we’ve had a very severe infection or constant re-exposure to the Wuhan version of the Spike protein through vaccination, the original antigenic sin effect is very strong.
As a consequence of original antigenic sin, the new immune response induced by an Omicron infection is going to be comparatively narrow. Because it’s comparatively narrow, the virus only has to change a little bit to escape this new immune response and then it can hit us again. And with everyone having roughly the same template through which they react against these Omicron variants due to everyone getting Wuhan first, a change that works in one person will typically work in almost everyone.
Contrast this with the new variant that emerged in India, BA.2.75. It seems to do very well in India, but apparently struggles to spread outside of India. Why would that be? The vast majority of people were first exposed to Delta. Most people in India have now been vaccinated, but they would have been vaccinated after already having been infected by Delta. As a consequence, their immune response looks different and can be expected to be broader.
It has been observed that BA.2.75 appears uniquely good at escaping antibodies induced by Delta:
You don’t really need an ADE nightmare variant that emerges out of nowhere to have a problem, the current situation in Scotland should be sufficient reason for concern. If a substantial share of the population is now subject to reinfections on a frequent basis, those people could reasonably be expected to suffer immune exhaustion.
I want to remind you of what I said in December last year, after the sudden emergence of Omicron:
What this looks like to me, is that we’re witnessing the birth of a new SARS-COV-2 variant, that gradually learns how to survive in the bodies of people who took these vaccines. For elderly people that’s acutely dangerous, for younger healthier vaccinated people, it leads to a situation in which this virus evolves into something more resembling a chronic condition: You’re continually infected and reinfected, never quite able to overcome the virus, with your overall immune system suffering as a consequence.
I’m inclined to think this was spot on, whereas most normie conservatives at the time were arguing that Omicron would signal the end of COVID. The immune system of most adults in Scotland has been so handicapped by the vaccination campaign, that the cities suffer widespread constant reinfections. I’d like to say I know some sort of viable solution, but I don’t.
Consider instead, what happens with other viruses that we can’t beat.
With cytomegalovirus, we fail to purge it, so it eventually causes immune dysfunction in old age.
With herpes, we fail to purge it, so it eventually causes Alzheimer’s.
With HIV, we fail to purge it, so it eventually causes AIDS.
With Hepatitis C about 75-85% of people infected fail to naturally purge it. If you end up receiving antiviral drugs to get rid of it, you’re still left with reduced T-cell function.
What’s the effect of your immune system having to play wack-a-mole against a virus that constantly keeps reinfecting you with different variants, handicapped by a vaccine that left it under the mistaken impression your bloodstream was infected three times by the Wuhan variant, on which it proceeded to deploy its entire arsenal?
Theoretically, I would imagine you’d want some sort of Leukapheresis therapy, where you remove the white blood cells that are stuck producing useless counter-effective enhancing antibodies against SARS-COV-2, along with the ones that are producing high affinity antibodies that prevent other lymphocytes from joining the war. But obviously that’s not going to happen, it wouldn’t be even remotely scale-able for millions of people.
We know there are numerous children in the Philippines, whose immune systems have been handicapped in the fight against Dengue due to a failed vaccine. There too the children receive no therapy whatsoever that could restore their ability to properly respond to Dengue.
I have essentially no background in virology, but I have been warning about this problem for about a year now, that these vaccines are not going to work for this virus, that you must avoid taking them at all cost and that the evolutionary dynamics mean they will merely end up aiding this virus in its goal of replicating itself.
By now, I would say the evidence has vindicated me, even as the Fauci’s of this world promised us vaccines would be our ticket out of the pandemic and various scientific studies were published that argued this. When you look at Scotland, or the death toll among vaccinated people in England in recent months, what other conclusion can you reach than this vaccine having been a mistake?
What would all this mean for the unvaccinated and naturally infected?
You get to inherit the Earth
It is clear that the vaccinations were a terrible idea. But I’m not sure that the unvaccinated are going to fare well. We are surrounded by people who are sick; who can’t clear a viral infection. Our bodies will be constantly fighting off those infections. Even if we don’t catch covid our immune systems will be worn out.
Hi Karenica,
I kinda agree but it will be a matter of degree. Chronic infection will be more prevalent with less efficient immune systems so I’d say watch who you mix with, and where you mix. Possibly the worst places will be badly ventilated open plan offices, and anywhere older people congregate that is indoors. Hospitals will continue to be viral hotbeds – watch them all meltdown this autumn. Younger people are less vaccinated and have more efficient and adaptable immune systems – I’m hoping they will continue to clear infections quicker so are less likely to be infectious as much of the time. Any increase in viral virulence will highlight this too.
I can’t avoid the vaccinated since both of the other people in my household are vaccinated, and one is 97 y.o., so I can’t just leave. I doubt my situation is unusual.
@kareninca Living with a 97 y/o is unusual.
What a joke.
Ask yourself, why are you the only one still posting doom porn about the case numbers?
“OMG guys, this is really, really serious!”…because Omicron cases, which are 95% asymptomatic are rising somewhat.
Yeah, okay, whatever man.
Almost every competent authority has moved on from that masquerade. I wonder why you stopped talking about excess deaths and hospitalizations…
Still waiting on the Monkeypox apocalypse that you promised me. Have there been any deaths, btw?
Something like 99% seem to be making full recoveries.
Check out Australia and NZ. Both are now having higer case loads hospitalisation and deaths than ever before, sustained for the entire year so far, and rising again as we go through winter.Compared to most of the western world our situation is differnt due to:
-Inverted seasons
-very low initial infection rates, pre vaccine (probably due to being islands and getting hit in summer when immunity was highests
This means we have a lot of double and triple vaxxed who never had wild exposure pre clot shot, and omicron is killing more people now than the entire rest of the crisis put together, through our winter (though all the insane lockdowns and mask/clotshot laws have been relaxed, since the depopulation cult has managed to GMO and sterilise enough of the population already)
I would hazard a guess that as vitamin D levels drop, US/EU etc deaths will rise as they are here.
What I am seeing is that all the academia NPCs I work with – the same ones who bot-like demanded every restriction to save one live from COVID and then bot-like demanded nuclear war with Russia – have officially stopped believing in COVID, and yet they actually catch and are often incapacitated by COVID every time they attend a conference.
Back in 2020 and 2021, when all these people were shitting COVID doom porn into every social pipe, none of them actually got COVID. Now, they are all actually getting COVID. And while none of them have been hospitalized, these infections don’t seem to be quite minor either.
What I am seeing is that all the academia NPCs I work with – the same ones who bot-like demanded every restriction to save one live from COVID and then bot-like demanded nuclear war with Russia – have officially stopped believing in COVID, and yet they actually catch and are often incapacitated by COVID every time they attend a conference.
Back in 2020 and 2021, when all these people were shitting COVID doom porn into every social pipe, none of them actually got COVID. Now, they are all actually getting COVID. And while none of them have been hospitalized, these infections don’t seem to be quite minor either.
>Almost every competent authority has moved on from that masquerade. I wonder why you stopped talking about excess deaths and hospitalizations…
Because I have other shit to do too.
But hey, since you asked. 158k excess deaths this year according to Euromomo so far:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality
Excess deaths for 2022 so far don’t look that different than 2018 for example.
2020 and 2021 are pretty similar (except shifted peak in 2020). The biggest difference in 2020 and 2021 seems increased excess deaths in the end of the year (while in other pre-covid years there were none).
I know a few double jabbed and boosted Scots who don’t want a fourth shot as they’ve caught it and concluded the vaccine was pointless. Hopefully this might allow some of them to acquire natural immunity over time. Most Scottish boomers I know are desperate for their fourth shot despite having caught it already.
Hmm, you seem to have plenty of time to write Monkeypox fanfiction and produce emo Youtube compilations.
Not that I’m belittling your preference for free time as opposed to mainstream employment…but, please just stop being such a stubborn imbecile, for your own good. Use your rare privilege of free time better, for God’s sake.
I’ll never understand people like this who just show up to someone’s blog to complain.
If you have a comments section, then why should you be surprised to receive words of criticism on occasion?
What did you think would happen?
If I had a blog, I wouldn’t shrink from engaging intelligently with my readers, even and especially those who disagreed with me.
Replied to wrong comment, I meant to reply to Radagast, not Rob.
In total, humans have emitted 654 tons of carbon since the start of the industrial revolution. The Amazon rainforest contains 200 gigaton of carbon, including the trees and the soil. Imagine we began a tree planting campaign, to remove carbon from the atmosphere. How many new Amazon rainforests would we need to create, to be left with 54 gigaton of carbon that hasn’t been compensated?
You left off the giga on the first line.
Thanks you’re right.
@Apllonius
you should read Fastlane or Unscripted from MJ DeMarco. What he is doing(creating content) is one of the better strategies to get from the slowlane to the fastlane. This is therfore a smart use of time. Way smarter than focusing on mainstream employment(no matter how good) which will only get you stuck in the slowlane & mediocrity for the rest of your life.
I have now read this twice. I really appreciate it.
The guys who post hostile comments here mostly have crushes on you. Sorry, but that is what that is; they are seeking your attention. You can tell this because they don’t produce counterarguments; they just tell you how to live your life (that is, what to write on your own website).
I’m trying to figure out what my best approach is. I am not vaccinated, and as far as I know I have never had covid. Early on in the pandemic I took ivermectin once a week prophylactically; at this point I take it about once every 2-3 weeks. I used Xlear nasal spray until recently; now I use providine iodine nasal spray. I’m not doing these things because I’m especially fearful; it is more that keeping from catching this is an interesting puzzle, especially since the place I volunteer requires me to test once a week (and I’m always negative, while they are all vaccinated and catching it like crazy).
My question is – what happens to the (so far) unvaccinated? Should they still try to avoid getting this? If they are going to get it, is BA.5 the better one to get? Do unvaccinated people really get any/imprinting OAS from an infection?
If I understand correctly, you think that vaccinated people who are infected with BA.5 end up with some amount of new imprinting from BA.5, which the virus then mutates around so that they can then catch it again in a month. I am not sure that that is true. I think it is more likely that they get no imprinting at all from BA.5; that they are totally stuck with the Wuhan imprinting from the vaccine. However, being infected by BA.5 spurs them to produce antibodies – antibodies to the Wuhan virus. These antibodies still have some efficacy, but not so much, so they catch it again soon.
If you are right and vaccinated people can get some imprinting benefit from a BA.5 infection, that is a great thing. It means that their immune systems still have some ability to be remolded.
If I’m right, then it may not be a bad thing if I catch BA.5. It has no need to mutate now. It can go from vaccinated person to vaccinated person without a care; there is no longer much evolutionary pressure on it. So if I catch it, I will be imprinted (to the extent that an infection causes imprinting) with the variant that everyone will have for a long time. So I will have effective antibodies for a long time. Of course, it could evolve by chance into a version that is extra-nasty to the unvaccinated (like with Marek’s disease). But there are so few unvaccinated people, so how could it spread much?
Geert Bosche thinks that the next variant will appear in a matter of weeks. And that one should not take Ivermectin prophylactically at this point. I guess I may switch over to nigella seeds with honey.
On July 19th, Geert Bosche wrote: “Unvaccinated can now largely forget about contracting severe C-19 disease as the next big mutation will most likely make the unvaccinated resistant to the virus. However, if they have not yet been infected at all by any of these highly infectious variants, they could still contract C-19 disease (before that new variant emerges) and become seriously ill (but not ‘severely ill’ as longas they are in good health with no comorbidities and predisposing factors). To avoid this, they should either prevent risky contacts (difficult) till the next variant appears (in my opinion, just a matter of weeks) or take Ivermectin orHCQ as soon as symptoms manifest (but not prophylactically)
Very interesting, but I think that your focus on antibodies is misguided. With this kind of disease, antibodies are relevant only if you catch a severe illness and the virus circulates in your blood. Instead, your T cells are relevant.
Anyway, I think your overall approach should be to avoid the disease – as long as your measures are not becoming totally dysfunctional.
By the way, I think your stress on Ivermectin is misguided, too. Ivermectin is great, but as far as I know it is not suitable as a medicament taken regularly over a period of months or even years. Here you can find several useful protocols:
https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/
https://c19early.com/