The collapse of the global food supply begins

Een door langdurige droogte droogvallende poel langs de IJssel, bij de Bontekoeweg in Baak., Foto Henri Cormont/inZicht-foto.

When you change the atmosphere, it has consequences. And people don’t enjoy hearing this, they all have their own unique little reasons, to explain why changing the atmosphere can’t possible have consequences:

-What about volcanoes?

-It’s the sun!

-Water vapor is the main greenhouse gas!

-They used to predict global cooling!

-Bill Gates is a fat guy with manboobs!

-Al Gore has a big house!

-Obama has a house near the coast!

-Vegans are preachy!

-But China!

And yet, the monster is now staring you at the face, whether you like it or not.

In response to the war in Ukraine, the Netherlands began growing more wheat. Normally we import about a third of wheat from Ukraine and Russia, which will now export less to us, so we tried to compensate. But the lack of rain prevents the grain from sprouting. The farmers can’t use irrigation, because we suffer a lack of groundwater, after a number of consecutive dry years.

And we’re not alone of course. You can look around the world, numerous countries are running into problems like this. At 1 degree of global warming, the point we have now reached, our global climate has changed. Water now falls more frequently in massive downpours, followed by long periods of drought.

During the droughts your soil dries up and your harvests fail. Then during the downpours the water bounces off your completely dry soil and ends up causing floods and landslides. Forests are big plant communities that have large trees that can help them deal with conditions like this. They hold the moisture like a sponge in their massive root systems, then during the drought they release the water, allowing smaller plants to survive.

But humans don’t grow food in forests, we have industrial agriculture, which came into existence in the stable conditions of the Holocene. And so when rain turns into massive downpours, it causes us issues like this.

And unfortunately for us humans, it’s not about to get any better either. After all, a lot of the warming we have caused is still hidden from us, by the toxic air pollution we produce that blocks the sun. If we switched to a renewable economy and stopped all our air pollution today, within ten years we would have another 0.4 degree of warming, on top of the 1.0 degree of warming we already have.

And most of that additional 0.4 degree of warming would end up striking the parts of the Earth where we live of course, we’re not really blocking the sun in the middle of the ocean, it’s places like Lombardy in Italy, where air pollution is so severe that sunlight is stopped from hitting the ground. For the Earth as a whole it’s similar, although globally the Earth has gotten 1 degree warmer, on continents it’s about 2 degrees, as land warms faster than the ocean.

The other thing to keep in mind, is that the damages from warming increase at superlinear speed. The first 0.5 degree of global warming didn’t cause us much trouble. In fact, they seem to have improved global agricultural production. In recent years, it’s becoming clear that 1 degree of warming is now starting to cause us trouble. And yet, we will face another 0.5 degrees of warming, which will cause worse damage. We’re likely to see another 0.5 degree after that, which will again cause more severe damage to be piled on top of the damage caused by the previous 0.5 degree.

You’re now just seeing the start of the catastrophe we’re going to face, it’s merely going to get worse in the years ahead, regardless of what we do. If we somehow miraculously stopped all of our emissions today, there would still be additional warming. In practice however, stopping emissions overnight is impossible.

See, this is ultimately the problem we’re dealing with: Human beings seem to have assumed that global warming is nasty for the polar bears who die of starvation in the arctic, that this is why we have to reduce emissions, or that some obscure islands in the pacific ocean are going to disappear.

And the reason they’re bringing it like this is because nobody really likes to hear the message of: “Hey your children are going to die of hunger if we don’t fix this.” Governments don’t particularly like it either, because it stops people from reproducing. But as you can now hopefully see, that’s the direction this is going.

It was never about the polar bears, or the penguins, or the obscure pacific island that will drown. It was about whether civilization was going to collapse this century and billions of people would die or not. And because they were never honest to you about this, because they never bothered rubbing it in your face, most of you prefer to pretend the problem is not real, based off one obscure theory or another.

I’ll borrow an analogy of a notorious Swedish girl: Let’s say your house was on fire. Would you say:

“Well I read in the news that this Russian scientist is predicting that it’s going to rain tonight.”

“Well there isn’t really much we can do about it.”

“Well it’s probably cheaper if I just let the whole thing burn down and start living under a bridge.”

“Well yeah my neighbor’s a satan-worshipping pedophile and he’s trying to get me to be upset by the fire in my house because that detracts from his satan-worshipping pedophile business the guy probably has all sorts of HAARP weather control devices he could use to quench the fire if he felt like it.”

“I saw this meme on Twitter where the Soyjack says ‘OMG our house is burning down’ and the Chad said ‘Yes.’ so I’m simply going to laugh at you and pretend it’s not a real problem.”

The idea of a global food market is starting to break down. Russia is stealing grain in Ukraine for domestic consumption. Countries all around the world are prohibiting the export of fertilizer. We’re now faced with the reality of deglobalization, as countries hoard the basic materials they need to keep their population fed. And yet, most people just don’t wish to see it.

People simply go on living their lives, as the situation grows gradually more absurd. They bring children into this world, apparently indifferent to the simple fact that we’re not going to have seven billion people around eighty years from now.

Even when people acknowledge this problem is real, it’s always just some intellectual abstraction to them, some vague problem we have to solve in the future, but it’s not something that has real world consequences to them, now that we’re failing to solve it. Human psychology just doesn’t seem to allow for that.

And yet, the reality is pretty simple. If you decide to have a child today, the child will be 78 in 2100. How do you envision the world to be by then? People don’t really ask themselves this question before having children.

It doesn’t take a genius however, to see what’s going to happen. If you’re born today, you’re going to have to live through this mess. You won’t have an ability to “do something about it”. We didn’t do much of anything about it, the kids being born today will be adults once there’s nothing left to do about it.

You’ve seen how people live in Syria, in massive refugee camps after their cities were destroyed by civil war. Would you want your children to have to live a life like that? Because that’s the sort of reality people born today face.

But humans are generally not rational. That’s why they play the lottery. They expect to be the exception somehow, they expect the universe or God will make things “work out” for them. But millions of people today already face the reality that it didn’t work out for them, they’re now suffering famine in the horn of Africa because of the enormous drought.

And their ranks will simply be joined by more and more people. Ukraine today is a war zone for two competing great powers, where many people live in hell on Earth. As we compete over diminishing natural resources, in a world that gradually becomes unsuitable for human agriculture, there will be more people stuck in such misery.

My recommendation has to be, not to bring more people into this world. This world is not fit for seven billion members of our species and it will not maintain seven billion of our kind for very long. You don’t have to outbreed some other ethnic group, you don’t have to pass on your superior IQ or appearance, you don’t have to keep the pension system functional.

Rather, your main obligation is to avoid bringing people into a world that will have no way to sustain them, where they will be in competition with one another to survive on a planet that is collapsing under their collective weight.

32 Comments

  1. If you have even a small back yard, get some hens (or ducks), you’ll always have enough protein 🥚🍳 and you’ll generate your own ferterlizer to feed your fruit and nut trees and grow potatoes and vegetables.

    • The fact that 99% of people depend complelely on the goodwill of a system that wants them dead is just unbelievable to me. They just drone on with their useless lives and their useless jobs, and they’re staring down the barrel of a gun.

      Get away from the cities, fast.

  2. What tard crack did you smoke today, that you think the smart people declining to reproduce, is somehow a smart response to the fact that billions of retards are going to be cleaned out?

    The big thing your reasoning misses is the fact that EQUALITY IS NOT TRUE.

    The world is severely underpopulated, there’s just a lot of enemy races standing between our children and the otherwise unclaimed resources.

    Once the tards are extinct our birthright is there for the taking

    • Fucko has it right. It’s your duty to press on and continue the fight, regardless of your fate. Why even stick around another day with that shit mentality that you don’t want to pass on your heritage? You’ve given up on your family, your people, and our civilization. You thing your ancestors didn’t have hardships, where resources were scare by their standards in their day? Did they get cold, go hungry, not have medical care? Did they give up? No, that’s why you are here today, able to take drugs and complain. We’ll continue the struggle without the defeatists, even if it ends in our demise.

      • I do not think he even has a woman, much less children. He’s sitting there on top of his dragon hoard of crypto wealth, with no woman, no family, and wondering why he feels purposeless and nihilistic no matter how many drugs he takes. Nature’s imperatives are ringing but he’s not picking up the phone

        • Yeah that’s what people generally think.

          The reality however is that I already felt purposeless and nihilistic when I was a nine year old child, even before I became vegetarian. I didn’t want to live, I felt like I was in prison.

          And if that’s how I felt as a child, I have every reason to think my own children would feel the same.

          Even if the party wasn’t about to come to an end, I wouldn’t want to have children.

          • This sums up the problem with “intelligent” ppl and why i almost hope for a low iq post western future. Just dumb poor happy ppl who wear flipflops all day and have lots of great unprotected sex.

          • What that goes to show is that how happy people are doesn’t have much to do with their circumstances. It is mostly genetic. I was a very unhappy kid despite excellent circumstances. That is why telling people not to reproduce because circumstances will be bad, makes no sense. People who enjoy things, will enjoy life despite a dying planet. They might as well have kids; they will enjoy the kids despite being in a dire situation.

            I hope you take selenium (in moderation) and eat natto for your health; you are probably deficient in selenium and K2. I was vegan for 19 years and didn’t know about the K2 problem then. The selenium might improve your mood. Lysine supplementation would be good, too.

          • Thank you for existing, Ragadast. My experience of your thoughtfulness, awareness, independence from social pressure, and sensitivity for the suffering of others have added something to my life that I cherish, and it makes me happy to know that there are people like you in the world.

  3. google: “Ice cores vs hockey stick”
    temperatures are not doing anything out of the ordinary AT ALL
    google: CO2 vs temperature over the past billion years or so
    CO2 is at 5% of maxumum natural levels, DANGEROUSLY, plant stuntingly, desert creatingly low
    Look up what PPM CO2 in the atmosphere is required to absorb the majority of relevant frequencies
    CO2 is already way higher than that, extra CO2 does sweet fuck all.
    Look up actual sea level rises over the past 15ky
    Notice that it is actually WAY slower now than at times in recent pre human post industrial history

    It’s a myth. Climate always changes. The past 10ky have been remarkably stable, and we are neither at the warmest nor coldest of that very short range (and right near the middle on longer, actually relevant timeframes)

    Yes 7 billion is a lot of people to be burning firewood, growing monoculture crops,factory farming livestock, dragnetting all the fish in the ocean, and burning smog producing (real problem) and oil spill causing (real problem) fossil fuels, but climate is the one aspect of all the fear mongering we DONT have to worry about, or more to the point, we would have to worry about anyway because it does its own thing and warms up (great: rennaiscance, golden age etc) and cools down (dark ages, numerous) all on its own and we cant stop it.

    Meanwhile, the real problems are forced upon us, by a one world globohomo psuedo corporate ruling system that is being used to deliberately limit our choices to bad options in order to make us feel guity for existing, when actually, using even the tech already proven to work, let alone the many suppressed but working more experimental techs, we could easily house, fuel, feed and sustain way more than 7 billion without causing even 10% of the damage we are now, if we were just allowed to use those techs (ie not constantly impoverished, miss educated, suppressed and misled into far worse options)

    Your refusal to face up to the clear, unavoidable reality of the ruling “elites” and the genocidal humanity enslaving plans they *openly leak to us on regular basis*, which then come true, leads you to blame everything but the actual cause for problems

    • >It’s a myth. Climate always changes. The past 10ky have been remarkably stable

      You’re so close.

      Those past 10k years were the period during which we began practicing agriculture.

      If you lose that period of climatic stability, you lose the ability to practice agriculture.

      • and yet again, you are assuming your conclusion as an argument.

        The stabilty had NOTHING to do with us, and if it ends, at least with current tech and emmissions, it will ALSO have NOTHING meaningful to do with us (unless you want to get into theorized and somewhat evidenced HAARP successors playing with redirecting jetstreams to flick a runaway change, but that’s a very different story from don’t drive or let cows fart or we die, now, isnt it).

        WHEN the earths climate changes in a way that matters, and it will, then we should learn to adapt. A greener, higher CO2 world is going to be FAR easier to adapt to than a dead low CO2 world, I can tell you that much.

        We are being genocided, and gaslit into blaming ourselves for it, when the tech to house feed and provide (non polluting) energy for the entire worlds population, in the land mass of one small country or so, *if needed*, already exists. Sure, I wouldnt want to live there, I’m a country boy, but the majority of the planets pop seems to like cities, and I’m talking about a much more wealthy, clean and livable one once the deliberate theft and waste, designed to keep us struggling and powerless, is gone, and we can actually live sensibly, and use our productivity for useful things.

        You ever looked into how little land is needed for an aquaponics setup that would feed a country? its incredibly small, assuming you have the energy tech we are currently blocked from using released, or just using solar will do the trick too.

        • >WHEN the earths climate changes in a way that matters, and it will, then we should learn to adapt.

          Have fun adapting to wet bulb temperatures that are too hot for human survival and cover areas home to hundreds of millions of people worldwide. Because that’s what’s going to happen, unless we rapidly reduce emissions. If you live in the wrong part of India by 2100 and your air conditioning breaks down because of a blackout, you just die.

          It’s not extinction of all life on Earth, people in places like New Zealand should do alright, but if you live in India, Indonesia or other warm humid parts of the Earth, temperatures themselves will simply become too hot for human survival, within the lifetime of a child born today.

  4. “How do you envision the world to be by then? People don’t really ask themselves this question before having children.” This logic is as basic as “If God is real why do bad things happen to me?”.. Historically speaking when could you guarantee that your kids could live a secure life and die at 105? Imagine if our ancestors were doomers who overanalyzed everything.

  5. Luv you Radagast, but your misanthropy is getting in the way of logic here. If the future is so bad it’s not worth having children, why not just kill ourselves today? Non existence is apparently preferable to hard/miserable existence.

    Will have the added bonus of reducing harm to animal life, pollution and CO2 too. I would be a lot more convinced of the “the world will eeeeend!! (so don’t reproduce)” arguments after a few mass suicides.

    • >If the future is so bad it’s not worth having children, why not just kill ourselves today?

      That’s going to be many poeple’s retirement plant in the not too distant future.

      • >That’s going to be many poeple’s retirement plant in the not too distant future.

        I’m not disagreeing with the premise of the article necessarily, just the conclusion. The “the future will be bad so don’t have kids” argument is made by many people in different ways, but has the fundamental problem that if people actually followed it the human race would go extinct in one generation, rendering any badness of the future moot.

        Making an argument that you don’t intent people to actually follow is just intellectual masturbation.

        • I disagree with the conclusion as well. There are many anti-natalists among Millennial doomers. I think it is their way of rationalizing the fact that they themselves will not be having kids.

          The argument also contradicts Radagast’s previous anti-China/pro-West posts: if you really care about your culure/civilization/whatever, then the least you can do is passing it on to the next generation.

  6. B is tototally right. Plus, there have never been enough resources for all life to survive. Ever. All evolution was driven by some lifeforms outcompeting the others. The others died of starvation, got eaten, could not survive the changes. 4 billion years of this. The cosy nice all is well all are happy is the fantasy, which is just that humans got to kill lots others lifeforms because we found better adaptations, for a while.

  7. @Radagast,

    I agree on everything, except your conclusion. Resource-constrained societies have more children, not less. People have a lower life expectancy.

    That is what we will start to see in the near future as the US en EU enter de-growth.

    That does not necessarily mean that today’s Americans and Europeans will be having more children. Maybe they will simply become a minority in societies dominated by other, more fertile groups.

    • That could well be the case.
      I basically agree with Radagast’s article too. I find it strange that it is not more obvious to more people.
      There will be positives, if food gets expensive it will be tougher for people to flap and freak out about viruses

    • That’s unfortunately true. People only tend to reduce their fertility when they live in post-industrial service economies, where almost all jobs are highly skilled. When society breaks down fertility tends to go up, as women lose access to birth control.

  8. B said it all. But it still needs a picture.
    https://imgur.com/OQmwEd1

    We have very low CO2 historically speaking. It’s only natural for nature to reverse to the mean.
    Imagine a 100L barrel that is filled with 10L of water. And scare mongers shout “If we add a few more mililiters of water into this barrel all hell breaks loose!”

    The CO2 scare propaganda is a perfect copy of the covid scare propaganda. It’s beyond me how Radagast can see through one and not the other.

    • Correct. It’s true there will be shortages of food due to collapse of the supply chains – some of them deliberate, such as China’s “Covid” lockdowns and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Famine even, in some parts of the world dependant on the Ukrainian wheat.
      Radagast is a creation of his generation. He has no clue of what hardships our forefathers bore to eke out a living of the hard land – with sole energy sources from burning wood and windmills. People were poor, worked 12 hours a day and died young of sickness and malnutrition. That’s what will happen aain when gretards run the energy policy.

      • I don’t think it’s necessarily bad for humans to be poor. But I don’t think it would have been nice, to be a Roman who had to live through the collapse of the Roman empire.

        The main problem I see is that humans are just not going to be very nice to each other, when they don’t have enough to eat. Russia saw actual cannibalism during the civil war.

    • Wow yeah if we just recreate the climate that existed BEFORE HUMANS EVEN EVOLVED, that will totally work out just fine for human agriculture, don’t worry about it!

      If you push CO2 beyond 1000 ppm or so your brain doesn’t even work properly anymore, it starts to feel like you’re constantly in a poorly ventilated crowded room.

      So clever.

      “The whole climate humans evolved in and practice agriculture in is actually WRONG thank God we have the fossil fuel industry that’s recreating a climate that existed before we evolved all from the goodness of their hearts, this will definitely work out well for us!”

  9. “What tard crack did you smoke today, that you think the smart people declining to reproduce, is somehow a smart response to the fact that billions of retards are going to be cleaned out?”

    Billions? Seriously?

  10. It has never been drought in Europe before. Like, evah. F*ck the climate cultists are idiots.

    “Over a dozen of the hunger stones, chosen to record low water levels, can now be seen in and near the northern Czech town of Decin near the German border,” the AP writes.

    One of the stones on the banks of the Elbe is carved with the words “Wenn du mich siehst, dann weine”: “If you see me, weep.”

    A team of Czech researchers described that stone in detail in a 2013 paper about the history of droughts in Czech lands.

    The stone is also chiseled with “the years of hardship and the initials of authors lost to history,” the researchers wrote:

    “It expressed that drought had brought a bad harvest, lack of food, high prices and hunger for poor people. Before 1900, the following droughts are commemorated on the stone: 1417, 1616, 1707, 1746, 1790, 1800, 1811, 1830, 1842, 1868, 1892, and 1893.”

    https://www.npr.org/2018/08/24/641331544/drought-in-central-europe-reveals-cautionary-hunger-stones-in-czech-river

  11. Rather than endlessly indulging your nihilism RR and trying to find ‘objective’ rationales for it, you could make serious plans for the inevitable flood of third world “refugees” that will be funneled to the West as a consequence of these famines. You’re an affluent young man with a lot of free time and in dire need of a serious task. A regimen of hardness in body and spirit will not only permanently cure your malaise, it will also make you an invaluable asset in the coming troubles.
    I have no way to prove it, but after reading your doom-laden ramblings I was miraculously struck by the insight that these climate patterns which you document so well are actually engineered by malicious entities (see Ephesians 6:12 btw) with the intention of unleashing a cascading series of events that will permanently destroy the West (and humanity!) if met with credulity or passive resistance.
    You need not believe me, and I haven’t presented any serious evidence for my assertions, but I’m asking you to act on them as an article of faith. Or you could proceed on your forsaken course… its up to you.

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