Alright, I want to cover the conflict between Russia and NATO today.
There’s a strange notion that has taken hold among Western elites: The idea that physical reality doesn’t matter, that you control the world simply by controlling people’s opinions. If everyone pretends that men can get pregnant they can, if everyone pretends we can live without fossil fuels we can, if everyone pretends the vaccines are safe they are and if everyone pretends that numbers on a screen decide reality they do. We deplatform people who raise contrasting information and once war breaks out with a country spanning 11% of the Earth’s surface we add a new insult (traitor) to our old favorite insults (racist, homophobe etc).
I’m here today to tell you that Western elites have now definitively crashed the ship of fools into an iceberg. And to understand why, you need to understand just one thing: Social reality is a derivative of physical reality, instead of the other way around. Feminized Western elites think the way high school cliques of teenage girls do: If you’re not allowed to join our party you might as well be dead.
Russia is banned from any sort of social arrangements. Russia is banned from SWIFT, banned from sports matches, banned from the Eurovision song festival. You know what Russia is not banned from? Selling us natural gas, oil and coal. The reason for that is quite simple: We can’t afford to ban Russia from selling us the lifeblood of our economy.
The high school clique of popular girls that runs NATO has now caused thousands of deaths, because of their delusional belief that Russia could be bullied into staying out of Ukraine by threatening them with sanctions. The new consensus, now that it’s clear they were wrong and sanctions would not hold Russia back, is that Putin must be insane. And yet, it’s clear that Russia has been planning for all of this for months. When you’re convinced that Putin is insane, you should first ask yourself: Could it be that we are insane? Could it be that Europe is so used to running the world that we think we’re still in control even as the whole world has moved on?
There is no global consensus against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India, the United Arab Emirates and China abstained from voting on the UN security council resolution that condemned the invasion. Together, India and China make up 2.8 billion people, more than all NATO countries combined. Within these nations, there’s no interest whatsoever in sanctioning Russia. In fact, NATO’s attempt at banning Russia from using its institutions merely accelerates the pace at which those institutions become obsolete.
We no longer live in a unipolar world order, but European and American elites are in denial about this. The Western democratic system functions on the model of consensus, where you rise through the ranks of the bureaucracy by parroting the beliefs of your higher-ups. Those institutions then start to generate consent for their policies among the general population. It looks like democracy, in that most people generally agree with their government, but what happens is that the government instructs people what to believe, so that ultimately the system never really fundamentally changes.
As a good example of what I mean, contrast the portrayal of Canada’s truck drivers to how Ukraine’s army is portrayed. We know that Ukraine has a neonazi brigade integrated into its army, with open SS runes as its logo. And yet, if you were to ask the average babyboomer who watches TV or the average millennial who browses Reddit about this, they’re not aware of this. On the other hand, Canada’s prime minister succeeded in smearing the Canadian truckers who blockaded the roads as racist homophobic antisemitic white supremacists. And the general population received a warning: If you donate fifty dollars to the truckers we’ll blockade your bank account and you’ll be unable to buy groceries.
Western elites are used to exerting power by controlling narratives. And if you want to see how this new globe spanning conflict is going to unfold, then the best way to learn about it may be to take a look at the last episode of serious domestic dissent we’ve seen: The Canadian trucker blockade. Trudeau was effectively caught by surprise. He didn’t think it would matter, then he tried to shut the whole thing down with the usual liberal pejoratives (racist, homophobic, antisemitic andsoforth), then when that didn’t work, they began looking for central nodes in the economic system that they control, that they could use to shut down the protest. And so we ended up in the situation where a single mother who donated 50 dollar to the truckers has her bank account shut down.
You notice the exact same response to the invasion of Ukraine. The Western elites, who have only ever dealt in information and abstractions ever since they went to college, are rushing to figure out which abstractions they control that Russia happens to make use of. That’s for example, why they ban Russia from SWIFT. European elites look at the abstractions they control and then they imagine themselves to be in power, forgetting that the abstractions are mere derivatives that originally served to inform us of physical reality.
Here is the physical reality we’re dealing with: Europe is dependent on Russia, not just for electricity or heating, but for the very food that we consume.
Russia and the European Union both produce enough food to feed their own population. There is however a major difference between the two: According to the most recent figures, Russia applies 20.8 kilogram of fertilizer per hectare of arable land, whereas the European Union applies 154.8 kilogram of fertilizer per hectare of arable land.
This leads to important differences in yield. Europe harvests 5,240 kilogram of wheat per hectare of harvested land. We use very little space, to grow enormous amounts of food. On the other hand, Russia harvests 2,616 kilogram of wheat per hectare of harvested land. Places like the Netherlands and Belgium are at the top of the chart, with 8,318 and 8,154 kilogram respectively. The secret to our success is very simple: We’re highly dependent on technological tricks, to produce the maximum amount of food, with the maximum amount of inputs.
And looked at in this way, the European idea of food self-sufficiency is a myth. We don’t produce our own food. We’re about as self-sufficient as a college student who lives by herself but has her father pay for her rent. Because ask yourself: Where does all this fertilizer come from? We produce it ourselves, by fixating nitrogen from the air. But what do we use to fixate the nitrogen? We use natural gas. Nitrogen fertilizer costs have gone up by 263% last year.
But that’s not all. The Netherlands is a massive exporter of food, thanks to our greenhouses. How do you think we produce our food? With natural gas. We don’t just use the natural gas to warm our greenhouses, we use the carbon dioxide released from burning it to massively enhance carbon dioxide concentrations in the greenhouses, because this makes the plants grow faster. This is not to mention the artificial lights that are used for the plants, allowing us to produce fruit and vegetables during dark winters.
If Russia won’t deliver us natural gas, we will literally die of hunger. The greenhouses stop working, we become unable to produce fertilizer so grain yields plunge too. And what are Russia and China now doing? They’re declaring that they’re not exporting fertilizer.
Here’s my guess how this unfolds: European bureaucrats will pretend to each other that the sanctions are going really well for a few months. Meanwhile the farmers who produce our food find themselves dealing with massive production costs that nobody cares about because they don’t have Phd’s or blue checks next to their Twitter account.
At some point the average dumb domesticated white collar office drone starts noticing prices in the supermarket are really going up a lot, then some products simply stop being delivered and by the time it is too late, the bureaucrats start thinking of a solution. My suggestion: Stock up on some food now that you can easily store for a few years if need be. Make sure to have a reserve of multivitamin supplements too, to help you get everything your body needs.
I don’t have a crystal ball, but this is exactly the sort of situation where food shortages look like a real possibility. It’s less painful to be stuck with bags of rice you will have to work through, than to be stuck with money that declines in value twenty percent a day, while you’re unable to feed your family and the supermarket shelves are empty. Do yourself a favor and try not to be an American ketotard either, you can store dried peas and rice, you can’t properly store meat without electricity, unless you know how to ferment it. Some carbohydrates won’t kill you.
People will tell you “we depend on Russia for 4.1% of our exports and they depend on us for 37.9%% of their exports”, which is a soothing thought, until you ask yourself what we export and they import. We import oil, coal and natural gas. We export refined products.
And that’s where the important difference comes in: The products that we import from Russia generally have tight margins. This means that the proceeds to Russia increase dramatically, when scarcity causes prices to go up. On the other hand, the sort of stuff we export to Russia (cosmetics, medicine, alcoholic beverages) already has high margins.
Take a look with me at this graph:
What does it even mean, to compare Russian and European exports, when the price of the stuff we import from Russia can increase seven-fold in one year? Do you think we can increase the price of Adidas or medication we export to Russia sevenfold? They would just stop buying it. And most important, when the price we’re paying for natural gas goes up sevenfold, that doesn’t mean the cost of producing it goes up sevenfold, as production costs will rise less than the price, if at all.
You should remember that when the Allies were fighting Nazi Germany, they invaded neutral countries like Iran, for the simple reason that they were exporting fossil fuels to Nazi Germany. And now our Western elites want to fight a war with Russia, as they import fossil fuels from the country they plan to pick a fight with? Explain this to Winston Churchill or to Joseph Stalin and they would consider them delusional. Even Donald Trump figured out years ago how vulnerable Germany is because of its dependence on Russia.
European elites don’t understand this, because they have a blind spot. In Western society, if you interact with physical reality for a living, especially with fossil fuels, you’re at the bottom of the social totem pole. Only right wing politicians like Donald Trump who gain power by championing the interests of blue collar working class men even recognize that you can’t win a war against a country you’re importing natural gas from.
And please understand this: Our dependence of Russia isn’t going to end, it’s going to grow in the decades ahead, for the simple reason that our own natural gas and oil fields are being depleted faster than we manage to move away from fossil fuels. Take a look at this graph:
Europe’s production of natural gas is rapidly declining. My own country the Netherlands used to export natural gas throughout the world, at ridiculously low prices, as any price at all helped balance our govenrment’s budget. And now the price has skyrocketed sevenfold in a year. This would be a terrific opportunity to sell natural gas. Except we’re not going to sell it, because we don’t have any real reserves left in our natural gas fields.
And (irony alert), imagine if we had taken climate change seriously and genuinely started moving away from fossil fuels to alternatives three decades ago. We would have natural gas reserves left, that we can use during emergencies like these. We would even be able to keep the lights on in the middle of a Russian boycott. We should have used our natural wealth sparingly, but we squandered it.
Take a look at this graph of natural gas reserves in the Netherlands:
Environmentalists were telling you this twenty, thirty years ago: These fossil fuels reserves are not going to last forever. Now you’re dependent on countries that did not use up their reserves.
Remember, Russia has 1.87% of the world’s population and 11% of the world’s landmass. The European Union has 3% of the world’s landmass and 9.78% of the world’s population. You don’t need a Phd do understand what’s going on here. Basic common sense would suggest that we use up our natural resources long before the Russians do. Basic common sense would also suggest that Russia’s soils become more valuable and productive as the Earth warms, whereas countries closer to the equator are in big trouble.
And I know some people are dumb enough to fall for the wishful thinking of the boomer dads who think that fossil fuels last forever, that you can open up an old oil well again and find that it’s full of oil again. To you I have a simple question: What the hell happened to the United Kingdom’s coal industry?
“Well they fell for the green UN agenda 21 plot to take away our freedom and deindustrialize our nations and make us all neofeudal peasants”
Hold on there for a moment. Their coal production peaked in 1919. Now I’m not allergic to conspiracy theories, but “British elites conspired in the year 1919 to make it look like the UK was starting to run out of coal to foster some sort of sinister agenda and kept this whole plot going for decades” is a bridge too far for me.
If you’re a densely populated country that is first to industrialize, you will tend to be among the first to run out of fossil fuels. Places like New Zealand, Australia, Brazil and North Korea took a while to industrialize, so they will have fossil fuels left. Places like Germany and the United Kingdom were pretty early with industrialization, so now they’re Vladolf Putler’s bitches. It seems like a pretty simple theory to me, that fits almost all the evidence that we observe.
When I say “run out of”, I should clarify what I mean: I mean “run out of the easy cheap accessible stuff”. The world will never run out of fossil fuels. It will however, run out of fossil fuels that are cheap and easy to extract. You went from oil gushers in Texas where you stuck a spade in the ground and the stuff literally came blowing out, to dirty tar sands in Canada that require you to destroy old growth forests and apply steam and chemical processes to turn it into something resembling crude oil.
That’s the same argument by the way for the naive fools who think you can simply raise your middle finger to Putin and begin importing natural gas from the United States. American natural gas is more expensive to extract and compressing it into liquid that then has to be transported to Europe in massive boats that could end a city if something goes wrong is not exactly efficient either. Europe went to Russia for natural gas, because Russian natural gas was the cheaper option.
It would have been pretty clever back in 1990 for Europeans to say “well it looks like all these fossil fuels are going to be causing catastrophic changes to the climate and we’re about to run out of the good stuff anyway, so it’s probably best if we hurry to come up with a sustainable alternative, then if the worst happens we always still have the reserve left in the ground in times of crisis”.
Unfortunately, we generally didn’t really do that. Exporting natural gas to other countries for pennies was a cheap and easy way for Dutch politicians to balance their budget. It’s kind of similar to how you can live a pretty luxurious life for a while, if you decide to start donating your organs on the black market.
It’s easy for middle aged men to say “this is all Greta’s fault”, but Greta was ringing the alarm bells when you were already too late. If we had started this energy transition twenty or thirty years ago, countries like the Netherlands could now say “sorry Putler, we’ll tap our own reserves”. The reserves are now almost finished and tapping Dutch natural gas in Groningen now causes earthquakes because the pressure is gone, so we can’t help out Germany anymore, we’re now importers ourselves.
It’s a cheap shot to blame Swedish girls for this, but these are simply your own chickens coming home to roost. You didn’t care when it was the coral reef in Australia that was going to be affected. Now that you turned yourselves into Vladolf Putler’s gas-whore, it’s suddenly a problem. I for one, don’t really feel pity for anyone, except for the people in Kiev used as human shields by their own government.
We live in a multipolar world order now. Europe and the United States wasted the autumn of their global dominance, bringing “freedom and democracy” to Afghanistan and Iraq. And now you find yourself at the mercy of Russia, which has managed to win the sympathy, not just of the Chinese government, but of the Chinese population, who are now laughing their arses off at NATO’s impotent attempts to force its will on another great power.
Unless you consider dying of hunger in the cold in the dark an option, then you have exactly one option left: Stock up on vaseline and ask the Russian bear to be gentle with you. The longer you wait, the worse it gets.