As much as I’d like to focus on more pleasant stuff, I have to make a grim post today. You must have heard the claim that there’s a strange surge in people dying unexpectedly from unclear causes. Today I decided to look at some of the data available to me, to check whether we’re just paying attention to it more, or whether something has really changed. Sadly, I had to conclude that it looks to me like we’re genuinely faced with something unprecedented, my sympathy is with all the people who have been affected by this.
You have to keep in mind that a big surge in people dying suddenly from unclear medical causes wouldn’t necessarily manifest itself as a big jump in excess mortality. If sudden deaths from unclear medical causes used to be 10% of all deaths in the past and suddenly doubled in 2022, you’d see 10% excess mortality in the absence of any other changes.
Someone bothered to crawl the website and looked at the number of cases. I included the table here:
There’s no “died suddenly” epidemic in 2020. The problem only emerges in late 2021, and now it seemingly gets really awful in the last few months of 2022. Whatever is causing the problem would seem to be getting worse.
So is it just Canada? Let’s look at some other obituary pages. Here’s the UK. Ninety hits on “died suddenly” for 2022, with thirty-five in the past month alone. Just twenty-one in 2021. Just twenty-three in 2020. Finally, just twenty-two in 2019. In the past month, the UK obituaries thus show more “died suddenly” deaths, than a regular year would.
What about Ireland? We get 150 cases in 2022 so far, 135 in 2021, 62 cases in 2020 and 42 in 2019. For “died unexpectedly” you see a similar pattern. What about “died peacefully”, as a control? You get 288 cases this year, 273 cases from 2020 and 283 from 2019.
Other terms are also affected. I get six cases in 2022 so far for “suddenly passed away”, whereas other years get two hits or less. I get 127 cases for “passed away unexpectedly” in 2022, 136 for 2021, 80 for 2020 and just 43 for 2019. In contrast, “passed away peacefully” as a control term gets 281 hits in 2018, 288 in 2021 and 306 in 2022 so far.
In other words, it looks like “died peacefully” is pretty stable, whereas “died unexpectedly” is suffering rapid growth. It doesn’t seem to be an artifact of a factor like old obituaries being removed or new obituaries having more detailed information, it appears to me like we simply do have more people “dying unexpectedly”. It seems to me like we’re not crazy paranoid conspiracy theorists, as the excess mortality observed around the world is largely down to people who are dying unexpectedly. And to make matters worse, the number of people dying unexpectedly is rapidly growing.
The immediate suspect to most people would be the COVID vaccines. This isn’t exactly a genius esoteric conclusion to draw. But you have to keep in mind, that the vaccination doses administered in Canada look as following:
If you wish to blame the vaccines, then you’re left with the struggle of explaining why there are so many cases in late 2022, beginning in July, even though hardly any vaccines are administered in July, August and September. It doesn’t look like there’s a clear correlation between doses administered and sudden deaths.
As I have argued before, I believe that whatever is going wrong with the population, is a product of an interaction between the vaccine and subsequent exposures to SARS-COV-2. A simple delayed effect from the vaccine is insufficient to explain the peak in late 2021 followed by a decline in cases of people “dying suddenly”.
When you catch a respiratory virus, the symptoms you experience are generally not from the virus itself. Rather, what you experience is the immune response your body produces against the virus. Now imagine something went wrong with a vaccine, you’re constantly being re-exposed to a virus which your poor antibody response is proving unable to deal with, so over time your body begins to produce anti-inflammatory antibodies normally associated with tolerance.
If this virus was able to infect your endothelium, but your body doesn’t really fight the virus anymore, would we start to see a lot of cases of people “dying suddenly”? This is an explanation that seems plausible to me. Another explanation to consider: Amyloidosis from massive amounts of poorly neutralizing antibodies produced by the body, resulting in embalmers finding an abundance of strange fibrous clots in people’s blood vessels.
The reality we’re dealing with is as following: After the first two shots, there is no IgG4 response. Nobody showed ANY IgG4 against SARS-COV-2. We only start to see IgG4 after breakthrough infections and/or the third shot. Whereas everyone had zero IgG4 immediately after the second shot, in a small number of people the last observation found that IgG4 had become their dominant response to the Spike protein, with almost everyone else also showing some amount of IgG4.
And based on what we do know, you don’t want to see the body deploy an IgG4 response against SARS-COV-2. Have a look at this:
IgG4 is deployed in severe disease and especially in non-survivors.
If you were to ask me based on the knowledge I currently have, what I think is really happening, it’s as following: People move towards an IgG4 antibody response against SARS-COV-2, as their body’s response becomes IgG dominated after the first two vaccines. With IgA and IgM taking an abnormal backseat and IgG being forced to fight the virus on its own, inflammation becomes severe and antigen exposure becomes chronic, so that isotype class switching begins towards IgG4.
Once IgG4 emerges, it triggers a positive feedback loop whereby over time IgG4 becomes the dominant antibody response, as illustrated in the link above. It seems to me, that vast droves of people are in the process of having their immune response tipped towards an IgG4 tolerance response.
If people are then eventually reinfected, the antibody response is effectively entirely IgG4 dominated, which doesn’t trigger inflammation and so the infection becomes effectively silent, you don’t really notice common cold-like symptoms. IgG4, as an anti-inflammatory antibody that doesn’t activate complement and poorly binds to the Fcr receptor fails to bring the viral load down to zero. The virus eventually damages the cardiovascular system, resulting in a sudden unexpected death.
You would prevent this, with a strong IgM antibody response. When IgM class switches, it first switches to IgG3. IgG3 then switches to IgG1 and 2. Finally, these switch to IgG4. If you immediately start out without IgM and IgA dominating the immune response, you end up at IgG4 more rapidly. This of course would be especially the case in the context of chronic antigen stimulation, that is, the unprecedented mRNA/adenovirus experiment. Instead of injecting dead virus material (temporary antigen stimulation), we’re reprogramming cells to keep producing viral material (chronic antigen stimulation).
It’s worth noting that one plan for mRNA and plasmid DNA technology was to produce a “vaccine against allergy“. I quote:
Plasmid DNA and mRNA vaccines encoding allergens have been shown to induce T helper 1 as well as T regulatory responses, which modulate or counteract allergic T helper 2–biased reactions. With regard to prophylactic immunization, additional safety measurements are required. In contrast to crude extracts, genetic vaccines provide the allergen at high purity. Moreover, by targeting the encoded allergen to subcellular compartments for degradation, release of native allergen can be avoided. Due to inherent safety features, mRNA vaccines could be the candidates of choice for preventive allergy immunizations. The subtle priming of T helper 1 immunity induced by this vaccine type closely resembles responses of non-allergic individuals and—by boosting via natural allergen exposure—could suffice for long-term protection from type I allergy.
I think it would have been wise to wait a few years with administering mRNA and adenovirus vaccines to the whole population after the first test subjects signed up, just to see whether repeated natural exposure to the produced sequence eventually tips the provoked immune response into tolerance for the antigen. Remember: We don’t see tolerance associated IgG4 in the first weeks after the second shot. It only starts showing up after subsequent breakthrough infections and the booster.
This is what I believe is going wrong. I might be wrong, it could be something very different from what I expect, but I’m putting my proposed explanation out there, so that people can try to falsify it. The earlier we know what’s going on, the earlier something can be done in an attempt to stop it.
Again, my sympathy is with all the people who have had to deal with the tragic unexplained deaths we’re seeing, often in very young adults. Friends get upset at me that I’m so pre-occupied with this stuff, but I can’t really look away, I want to understand what’s happening. I hope we will all be lucky, things will return to normal and a few months from now I’ll spend my days writing reviews about indie horror games and French art house movies.