[TW: Bad Vibes]Sorry, I changed my mind: This winter looks bad

Have some music first and take a deep breath, because I’m about to feed you a very dark pill.

 

I’m the kind of person who changes his mind, when he is exposed to new evidence. At least, that’s what I like to believe. Compared to a year ago, the new evidence I’ve seen has led me to believe that this novel coronavirus is a lot more dangerous than it looked to me one year ago. I really wanted to settle on good vibes only, but I feel a moral obligation to warn you.

I’ve already explained most of my arguments here. I will briefly summarize my arguments here:

-Last year it looked like we had a good chance of reaching herd immunity. Herd immunity now looks impossible, this virus will remain with us forever.

-It first looked like it couldn’t properly spread in warm humid climates. It’s pretty obvious now this is not true.

-The scientific consensus is really that the new variants are more dangerous. Your chance of hospitalization for Delta is about three times as high as it was for the first variant, that’s what the available scientific evidence suggests.

-The vaccines are already failing, in the middle of summer. The vaccines never seem to have worked in Chile. In Scotland 87% of deaths are fully vaccinated.

-There’s evidence of genetic selection by corona viruses among East Asian people. If corona viruses were all hyped up flu viruses, you would not expect to see such evidence. East Asian hunter-gatherers had to survive for generations as corona viruses decimated their population. This is why China, South Korea, Vietnam and Japan have done pretty well in this current pandemic: It’s not the lockdowns, it’s mostly down to their genes.

-Lockdowns only make the situation better when they manage to completely exterminate the virus, they make it worse when they merely delay the spread, by encouraging the emergence of more lethal variants. We don’t know for sure if China managed to exterminate the virus with their lockdowns or if they are just lying, but they had tools available that we don’t: They welded people in their homes, they let people die alone in their homes, they have mass testing and they have a giant dystopian surveillance state. They also have a population that has genetic adaptations to fight viruses like this. By the time this virus left China, is started showing up in more susceptible ethnic groups, where it also rapidly evolved to become more infectious.

-The vaccines still deliver people some protection right now. The virus however simply changes, it loses the amino acids where the neutralizing antibodies can bind. When this happens, vaccinated people will just be left with binding antibodies. This will lead to a situation of antibody dependent enhancement. They won’t be able to mount a proper immune response against the virus, the immune response they do mount is one that will make the virus more dangerous for them. Vaccinated people are going to be in big danger starting this fall. The rest of us will be dealing with an explosion of variants, because the virus is forced to rapidly change its spike protein to survive in a vaccinated population.

-The vaccines damage your body. The spike protein is a toxic protein, you don’t want your own body to be pouring that protein into your blood stream because of a vaccine. The spike protein damages your Hematopoietic stem cells. Those stem cells are responsible for producing your white blood cells, thus there’s an effect on your long-term immune function to be expected too. Don’t take the vaccine. If you already took the vaccine, don’t take the boosters.

-Everything now suggests it’s pretty dangerous for young people too. That was not the case one year ago, it’s simply true that the new variant is more dangerous. From Australia:

There are currently 222 people with Covid-19 in hospital in NSW, including 54 in intensive care and 25 on ventilators. Of those in ICU, seven are aged in their 20s.

Seven of the 54 ICU patients are in their 20’s. That’s bad. Why do you think they have full martial law right now? Most of us already developed some immunity against this virus, so our bodies are somewhat prepared for Delta. In Australia most people have NO immunity whatsoever. They hoped to keep the virus outside until the world dealt with it, but that proved to be impossible. Now they have no immunity and they have to catch up with the rest of us, who already encouraged the emergence of new more dangerous variants.

-We saw a corona virus spread around the world back in the late 19th century, but this time the situation is much worse. When this virus first showed up in China, it was already perfectly adapted to human beings, because it probably came from a lab where they had this virus infecting mice with humanized ACE2 receptors. You can look at the amino acid homology pattern, this virus equally resembles human and mice proteins, because it evolved in humanized mice. This is not disputed by anyone: It looks more similar to mice proteins than it does to any other non-human ape’s proteins.

It has a synthetic furin cleavage site, a furin cleavage site that appears far more powerful than any of the furin cleavage sites in its relatives. Right now the most likely scenario looks to be that the virus got into the sewage of the Wuhan lab back in fall 2019, sewage workers got infected and then it began its conquest. More importantly perhaps, the human population is much more vulnerable now than it was in the late 19th century.

But most importantly, here’s the global death toll:

Muh vaccines. Muh herd immunity.

Alright, one more. Here’s Chile:

Muh lockdowns. Muh vaccines. Muh herd immunity.

 

Conclusion


“Don’t say it’s not what you wanted…”

Yeah, this is the real deal. Sorry, there’s no point anymore in denying it. It looked much better one year ago, when half the deaths were nursing home residents and the average age of death was something like 82. But it didn’t go away, it keeps coming back, every new wave hitting younger and younger people. Immunity to corona viruses wanes after a while, because having antibodies and subsequently being infected with a different strain that uses those antibodies to its advantage means you’re dead. The antibodies are there to purge it from your body, not to protect you from getting it again.

There’s a spiritual explanation here that you have to consider. For all practical purposes, it’s a supernatural event, a curse we bestowed upon ourselves. You can’t see this separately from the global climate protests. Mankind refused to make peace with nature and so we unleashed her wrath. You fly around the world, burning as much carbon dioxide as an average African village does in a year, to take pictures of your feet on a beach for Instagram. You eat deformed chickens that have never seen sunlight, bred to explode in size so fast that they can not walk on their feet.

You can see in our era how men treat women. Men treat women poorly and so women start to think of themselves poorly. It’s woman’s nature to adjust to how she is treated. She will think of herself poorly and she will think of anyone who tries to treat her with respect as weak. They become addicted to abuse. Even when they stood up for Mother Nature we failed them. That’s how we invited God’s curse upon us.

Look at the recent outbreak in Massachussets, where 87% of breakthrough cases were in men, and 79% had symptoms. These were young people, aged 42 on average, so it’s not a case of the vaccine only failing in old people, it’s failing in everyone. As the virus starts hitting younger people, it will start mostly hitting men, because the hormonal differences are larger among young people and testosterone makes you more vulnerable to viruses while estrogen protects you. The reason it works this way is because a woman’s body needs to be capable of protecting a child in her womb.

We’re a failed ungrateful decadent species, a species that invited God’s wrath onto itself. As long as we fail to submit and surrender it gets worse and worse and worse, that’s how these things tend to work.

What to do

It’s an arms race. I would tell you “take vitamin D, Magnesium and Zinc”, but don’t you think practically everyone is already doing that?

You’re going to want to stock up on antivirals and fibrinolytics.

Here’s some recommendations:

-Go to your local forest and harvest pine needles. Inhale the scent, make a tea from them. Put some lemon juice in there while you boil it, to help draw out all the good stuff.

-Garlic is an effective anti-viral.

Stock up on Natto, or learn to make your own. It needs to be raw, live natto. If it has been heated it’s useless.

-Fisetin and quercitin look effective against SARS-COV-2. You can find these in any good supplement store.

-Vitamin B12 inhibits the virus too.

-Cannabidiol and THC reduce inflammation in your lungs, this can help to protect you against a cytokine storm. Terpenes can be anti-inflammatory and anti-viral too.

-Keep exercising. Practice jogging as well as sprinting. Your heart and your lungs are being attacked by the virus. Ask the maximum of your lungs and your heart.

Sorry, it’s the real deal. Stock up on food right now. Stock up on supplements with a long shelf life. Try being ready to treat your family yourself this winter. Death is hard. Death while you think “I could have done more” is worse.

And don’t say it’s not what you wanted. We manifested this.

25 Comments

  1. Your essays used to be informative and even enlightening. However, at this point you’re rambling about barely related things and sound like you’re afflicted with a serious case of paranoia. Maybe lay off the drugs for a while, and I don’t mean this in an insulting way at all.

      • I will not challenge the substance of your argument, rather, I will challenge the substance of your character, and the general pattern by which you acquire and parse information.

        Normal stupid people have an epistemology that summarizes as, “acquire data -> draw deductive conclusions.”

        This is not a bad thing, in fact it’s a crucial skill to have, it’s just not the whole picture, because it lacks failsafes against being intentionally or accidentally fed a misleading data set. It appears that on the topic of covid, the other day you stumbled on the “bullshit hoax” subset and wrote your article accordingly, while today you stumbled upon the “armageddon” subset and wrote this one accordingly.

        How do you know you are not confirmation biasing yourself? How do you know that your “data set->deductions->conclusions” pathway is not compromised at the level of the data set that you happened to be exposed to?

        The answer is, you don’t, and never have; these things are not important to you.

        You psychedelic users like to believe that because your drugs let you step outside of society’s framing and notice some things you aren’t otherwise socially encouraged to notice, that it makes you wise. In reality this just exposes you to a socially inconvenient set of data, it doesn’t make you even microscopically better at parsing it. That takes actual work and method, there is no drug to induce intellectual rigor.

        Doesn’t it concern you, that you wildly contradicted yourself on the topic of “bad vibes” and on your general assessment of covid, just in the space of a few months?

        Doesn’t it make you wonder, “If I could be wrong about something that huge, what else could I be wrong about?”

        Doesn’t that make you worry that you might be making extremely important choices in your life predicated on bullshit ideas you will later hate yourself for believing, when you’re waist deep in the consequences?

        Don’t you ever look back at your own old posts, carrying such an air of certainty and bravado to promote ideas you now think are retarded, and feel the slightest bit of shame, or doubt in yourself?

        I will not challenge the specific facts you present, or the logic you have worked upon those facts. Instead, I will challenge your lack of rigor in deciding which facts to accept and reject; and as an extension I will challenge your character, as someone too lazy and sloppy to form a consistent and reliable worldview, for the benefit of yourself and those around you.

        • I don’t know. I think you might also just be missing out on some subtleties in communication.

          When I write “this blog is going to become more innocent than Mr. Rogers”, I think it’s pretty obvious that I’m being tongue in cheek.

          In fact, I always thought it was pretty obvious that this is my personal blog, where I write about the things I currently find interesting and explain how I currently view the world.

          I mean, I’d love to move to mainly good vibes, but that’s not easy.

          >Don’t you ever look back at your own old posts, carrying such an air of certainty and bravado to promote ideas you now think are retarded, and feel the slightest bit of shame, or doubt in yourself?

          For COVID specifically, I don’t think that I was wrong, so much as I believe that we responded to a relatively benign virus in a terribly stupid way:

          -With lockdowns and social distancing, we forced this virus to become more infectious. The same mutations that make it more infectious also tend to have the effect of making it more virulent.

          -The vaccines prevent people from getting infected, but they’re leaky vaccines. This again forces the virus to become stronger to survive.

          My personal belief is that through social distancing, we have taken a relatively mild virus (2-3x a bad flu season) and now turned it into a genuinely dangerous virus (6-9 times a bad flu season). For Europe this is pretty nasty. For Australia, it’s potentially catastrophic.

          You might say “these mutations would inevitably show up” and that’s true, but without the lockdowns, delta wouldn’t be a big threat because most people would already have developed sufficient immunity through exposure to previous strains.

          In Sweden the situation currently looks more hopeful than it does in places like the United Kingdom.

          The place that has basically done worst so far is Chile. However, Chile has done everything you’re supposed to do:

          -Vaccinate everyone
          -Constant lockdowns
          -Constant social distancing

          To me this is a crucial piece of evidence that suggests to me everything we’re doing is making this situation worse.

  2. Interesting. What do you think the IFR of Delta is in west Europe? And what do you think the IFR of original covid is/was?

  3. IFR of the first wave looks to me like it was around 0.25%, at least here in Western Europe. That would be equivalent to about three times a bad flu season.

    The second wave with alpha was already nastier, particularly in the UK.

    The general consensus is alpha was 64% deadlier, so then the IFR becomes 0.41%.

    Now Delta seems to be 137% deadlier than the original strain, so then the IFR would be 0.6%.

    But that doesn’t really properly show how bad it really is, because two factors are missing:

    -Years of life lost per death increases as the IFR goes up.

    -These IFR estimates are based on sufficient hospital capacity. With higher risk of hospitalization, the risk is growing that hospital capacity becomes insufficient.

    My expectation is that this trend towards higher IFR’s isn’t about to stop either.

    • Cool. And I forgot to ask, how much more likely do you think an unjabbed person is to die of covid than a fully vaccinated person? (Assume both catch delta tomorrow somewhere in West Europe)

      • Tomorrow, assuming all factors are equal and they were vaccinated at least two weeks ago, I think it’s about 5 times more likely the unvaccinated person dies. That’s a very rough guess.

        The thing is, I expect that the effect will reverse. This winter, I expect vaccinated people will actually be more vulnerable than unvaccinated people.

        In addition, for my age category the vaccine itself seems to be about as deadly as the virus currently.

  4. What do you think about nicotine? I have read that it may block the ace2 receptor…

    Well, I already got the english variant so I don’t have the best chances if I get it a second time if the ADE thing is true. However, I told myself that I want to die with dignity and not like someone who loses his shit. To always be ready to die, well groomed like a Samurai so as to be a beautiful dead corpse, seems to be the best way to live.

    But surely,I hope that you are correct and that women have better chances. So that at least my girlfriend and my 5 month old daughter survive.

  5. >…because the virus is forced to rapidly change its spike protein to survive in a vaccinated population.

    I would like to add that I find it somewhat strange that you speak about a virus like it is some living organism with a inherent will to adapt or survive. A virus is just a self-replicating machine or better code since a cell needed for replication. The virus itself is probably very indifferent towards it own fate and all mesures. It simply a matter of what can replicate will replicate.
    It is certainly possible that with Antibody-dependent enhancement some variant may be able to replicate even faster. But in my opinion the virus will not become more dangerous just because it is pushed into a corner… the probability of successful mutations depends on the number of replications. In contrast to the scientists who toyed with it in the laboratory the virus has zero motives.

  6. It feels like you’ve finally come back full circle to doomerism after having taking a detour through hopium land (2017-now). Personally, I have grown to detest defeatism over the last 3-4 years, definite optimism is the only way forward for me. That said, I don’t really have anything to rebut your arguments, I think it’s all logically plausible and well reasoned. However, the information landscape is too littered with mis- and dis- information right now. It seems much harder to find out the truth now than it was back early last year. My experience with collapse thinking is that it has never turned out as bad as collapseniks thought it would be. This could be the exception to the rule, but I’ll put my bet against it. If I’m dying on a ventilator next winter because of vaccine-induced ADE though, I’ll make sure my confessional last words to the nurse are: “we should have let it rip!”.

  7. >>In addition, for my age category the vaccine itself seems to be about as deadly as the virus currently.

    So you agree the current strain of virus isn’t killing young people? (or, uh, you think a lot of young people are dying and this is not noticed – 4 billion shots have been given so far)

    • The current strain is not killing healthy young people in significant numbers. It is hospitalizing them however.

      > (or, uh, you think a lot of young people are dying and this is not noticed – 4 billion shots have been given so far)

      Look at excess mortality among young people on euromomo:

      https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality

      Something has been killing young Europeans in recent weeks.

  8. >>Last year it looked like we had a good chance of reaching herd immunity. Herd immunity now looks impossible, this virus will remain with us forever.

    Yet at the same time you also say:

    >>Most of us already developed some immunity against this virus, so our bodies are somewhat prepared for Delta. In Australia most people have NO immunity whatsoever.

    Anyway, reading this one can hardly avoid the impression that you are hell-bent on twisting every piece of data (or supposed data) that you can get your hands on in order to justify a full blown doomer outlook.

    • >Most of us already developed some immunity against this virus, so our bodies are somewhat prepared for Delta. In Australia most people have NO immunity whatsoever.

      Immunity is not a black-white thing.

      You can have immunity from antibodies, immunity from T-cells and even pre-existing immunity from natural antibodies.

      Natural immunity is broad: Your body has a wide range of ways to attack this virus and all of them are enhanced upon exposure to this virus.

      We can have such immunity and still be infected however: The infection will generally just be milder, because the body has its weapons ready.

      That’s different from having herd immunity. With herd immunity, we have so many people with strong immunity, that a virus goes extinct. That specific scenario is now impossible with this virus, because of the new variants.

  9. I am glad you refrained from your good vibes announcement. Thinking positive is dull and uninteresting.

    I agree that the new variants cancel all previous assumptions (the virus only kills the elderly and obese, young people are basically immune, they should allow the virus to spread and only protect the vulnerable, etc.).

    I do not understand the pushback you got in the comments. Nothing of what you write is particularly contentious, and is mostly in line with what the average newspaper publishes on the subject. Except that I do not think we will have a new plague, just some more mortality than expected.

    Also, a point that I wanted to make is that refusing to take the vaccine is a class marker. It makes it clear that you are low-brow and undeserving. It ruins personal relationships. In the future we will need more relationships, not less, so that is a point in favor of vaccination, regardless of whether it works (I do not think it does) or not.

    • >I agree that the new variants cancel all previous assumptions (the virus only kills the elderly and obese, young people are basically immune, they should allow the virus to spread and only protect the vulnerable, etc.).

      >I do not understand the pushback you got in the comments. Nothing of what you write is particularly contentious, and is mostly in line with what the average newspaper publishes on the subject. Except that I do not think we will have a new plague, just some more mortality than expected.

      Yeah agreed, I don’t see why I get such pushback. I don’t know for sure how bad it’s going to get. In the UK the scientists now think this is pretty much something we will be dealing with for years to come.

      I also don’t see why it’s so contentious to suggest that this virus is now more dangerous than it was a year ago. Situations change, this situation changed for the worse.

      Whether it’s going to be a real 1918 style plague remains to be seen, but I just don’t see how this winter is going to be any better than the previous winter, which was honestly pretty bad on its own. I’m pretty worried that hospitals just won’t manage this winter.

      >Also, a point that I wanted to make is that refusing to take the vaccine is a class marker. It makes it clear that you are low-brow and undeserving. It ruins personal relationships. In the future we will need more relationships, not less, so that is a point in favor of vaccination, regardless of whether it works (I do not think it does) or not.

      Fair argument.

      For me personally, I generally don’t like being bullied into making decisions about my own body, so people saying “you need to do this or you’re a white trash trumptard” won’t convince me, in fact it will have the opposite effect.

      • Since the beginning, I have been more afraid of people’s reaction to the virus, than of the virus itself.

        Accordingly, I did not take the vaccine because I thought it was safe or useful (I am pretty sure that it is neither), but because I am afraid of what society will do to me and my family if I do not.

        What has happened since last year is only comparable to the totalitarian regimes of the 20th century. When the thumbscrews get tightened, I do not want to give them any reasons to target me a troublemaker.

  10. Doesn’t seem so bad to me. If I look out on the world today, even a virus that kills 1% of everyone feels warm and cozy compared with the rest of what’s going on. I’m taking good vibes from this post.

    Regarding losing friends over not getting an experimental, uneccesary, largely ineffective, and potentially hazardous medical treatment (I know someone who now has hemiplegic migraines and leg tremors after getting it, don’t know anyone who died from the virus) that’s being pushed hard by gargantuan pharma corporations and their stooges in government and academia… I count that not as a loss but as a welcome clarification.

  11. I have two additions to your list:

    .Keep your living space clean, to avoid secondary infections.
    .Get your flu shot, to mitigate the worst-case second-order effects of last winter’s cancelled flu season. (yes I know the shot will be less effective than usual since the developers have less data to work with but a mitigation is a mitigation and if you’re right this winter would not be a good time to get the flu)

    Belated congratulations on leaving your job, by the way. I doubt my weird zealotry played any part in that, but if it did then I’m glad.

    • Not everyone is going to develop antibodies. Young children who have never been exposed can still get infected and elderly people can’t make antibodies. It doesn’t look like the virus will ever just die out.

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