So, they’re noticing in Italy that the case fatality rate is steadily climbing:
????Weekly COVID update in Italy ????????
????????Case Fatality Rate: 3.3% ????
— Antonio Caramia (@Antonio_Caramia) November 15, 2024
We can exclude one explanation, it’s not because they’re testing less:
????Weekly COVID update in Italy ????????
????Tests: 66.289
— Antonio Caramia (@Antonio_Caramia) November 15, 2024
So it may be that with fewer people getting infected right now in Italy, cases are more concentrated among more vulnerable people.
The quasispecies tends to expand its genetic diversity over time, which has the effect of increasing virulence. The quasispecies started over from scratch when BA.2.86 emerged, which had such a huge fitness advantage that it wiped out other lineages, but that’s well over a year ago by now.
But you have to keep in mind, that something else happened during the last few months. We know that the neutralizing antibodies now depend on using the N1 and N2 loop of the NTD. Those neutralizing antibodies no longer work, because of new glycans. So I wonder: Has the case fatality rate shot up because the most important neutralizing antibodies no longer work?
And as you may expect, the virus has immediately moved towards the next predictable step: It now introduces two new mutations in the N3 loop, to get rid of the antibodies there. The fastest growing lineage is now LP.8.1, which introduces these mutations:
>KP.1.1.3* (Nextclade) + S:H445R, S:Q493E, S:F186L, ORF3a:P178L, S:R190S
This is very obvious. S:R190S introduces a new N-linked glycan at 188, right in the N3 loop. S:F186L is also in the N3 loop and seems necessary to make S:R190S fit, it’s not very fit without S:F186L. In other words, it slightly changes its structure to help adjust to that new N-linked glycan on 188.
I find it strange how nobody is really remarking on this. We have a pretty clear pattern: Glycans introduced on N1, followed by new glycans for N2, then followed by new glycans for N3.
I wonder how they expect the immune system to neutralize this virus, once the NTD is covered in these glycans and the population has a whole bunch of poor affinity IgG4 antibodies against the RBD.
Can I just point out, that this is what everyone now apparently considers normal:
“New Yorkers are cooked—we all have this wheezing cough (not bacterial*) we all need inhalers because it’s the city & it’s disgusting so you’re constantly coughing all over each other… I’m so sick; we’re all sick!”
*aka not infectious ???? (u sure about that??) pic.twitter.com/9FZMvwQyt5
— I Brake 4 Ants (@ibrake4ants) November 17, 2024
“Yeah everyone has this wheezing cough that’s not bacterial that you need inhalers for, perfectly normal.”
Imagine I’m wrong for a moment. Perhaps we never get a version of SARS2 for which we can’t develop a neutralizing antibody response.
What do you think happens if otherwise healthy young people just spend every day coughing? None of this is just hypothetical, me sperging out over text and numbers on a screen. No, I’ve personally met people my age, who developed nerve damage from all their coughing, they just have to spend the whole day laying on the couch, in hopes of healing the nerve damage. You cough too hard and you just damage your nerves.
You can also develop lung fibrosis from constant coughing. If your lungs have their cells destroyed, the immune system tries to repair things by depositing fibrin, as a place-holder before full regeneration. But when the damage is too big, or fibrin is deposited faster than it can be removed (eat your natto), you just end up with declining lung function.
And remember, the immune system has different ways to deal with an infection. Infected cells can just detect and destroy the RNA of a virus, on their own or with help from innate immune cells. Those cells are then afterwards better able to deal with exposure to similar viruses. Alternatively, antibodies can instruct the immune system to destroy infected cells. After vaccination, antibody levels against Spike are about 20 times normal. What happens when you constantly have the immune system destroying the infected cells, rather than letting those cells resolve the problem on their own?
I will say this again: The body sends the adaptive immune system after a respiratory infection, when the innate immune system can’t handle it on its own. It has reasons for that.
You made an intervention in a complex system and it didn’t work. Let’s say there is no grand finale where the antibody response just fails, perhaps we just end up with 10 years of these constant COVID waves, rather than naturally resolving this pandemic after 2 years. Do you realize what sort of irreversible damage to the fabric of society that does? It means an entire generation of children grow up with damaged lungs, damaged brains and damaged immune systems. It is essentially a civilization-ending event that most people just want to forget about.
is there something inherent in the structure of the universe that made a disaster like this inevitable? ignore the details of covid for a minute, but the high level story is “humans thought they knew what they were doing, ended up fucking themselves by intervening in a system they didn’t understand.”
can there exist in our universe an intelligence that actually understands the universe well enough to actually control it (rather than just the illusion of control we have now)? or is it the case that any universe complex enough to spawn intelligence is too complex for that intelligence to understand the universe it finds itself in?
maybe this comment of empty philosophizing belongs in the thread on drug use…
No. There is nothing inherent in the structure of the universe that made this disaster inevitable.
This disaster is the result of hubris and/or malice committed by humans. Possibly inevitable for humans since there seems always to be some human(s) that screw things up for everyone else. A human character flaw.
I don’t think there can be an intelligence IN the universe that fully understands the universe enough to control it. The universe can only be understood and controlled by the intelligence that IS the universe. Call that intelligence whatever you like. Spirit is inherent, dwelling within and throughout all things. Spirit IS the universe.
Humans are arrogant, stupid, and foolish. Throughout history, the human cultures which survived did so in part because they accepted that they didn’t understand the universe, and therefore they didn’t try to control it. They were humbled by it. Very unlike our current global culture. Pride goeth before a fall.
i think we are in basic agreement, although maybe i would say the intelligence that IS the universe exists OUTSIDE it (a nitpick). i think the piece that’s missing to make it inevitable for all intelligences is the evolutionary law of cultures that seems baked into the “structure of the universe.” that is, the humble intelligences that don’t try to control anything are either conquered, exterminated, subverted, or otherwise fade into irrelevance by the promethean/faustian cultures that outcompete them, and so they are along for the ride with whatever disaster the “techno-optimists” cook up for us.
is this law of evolution inherent to all intelligent species in this universe that have the physical capabilities for complex language and tool use, or do we have to go to another universe that has a different of logic where evolution doesn’t work? i can’t imagine a situation where that isn’t ipso facto true, so let’s start finding those parallel universes, boys!
Some of us have been blessed with perceiving the Gods directly. We are in this world to learn, improve, be tested, and accomplish tasks, without even being aware.
Is there a limit to the power of the Gods? Question is moot. How would an ant perceive a human, would our power seem infinite? How would an ant perceive an aircraft carrier? We are like ants compared to the Gods. If their powers have limits, we are likely unable to understand in which ways.
An interesting point. So perhaps my question is, accepting a normie materialist account of the rise of human intelligence (not so much ants; while intelligent, they don’t have complex language and tool using physiology to “make a difference”)… could any species anywhere ascend to godhood based on our understanding of the logic and evolution, or do the Gods you are referring to live outside the universe and have some communication portal to ours?
I suppose tryptie or someone will chime in with aliens/gods raping the mother earth to collect our loosh after losing a war or something and they are definitely of our universe, but i find that… hard to believe.
maybe i need to do some psychedelics and all will become clear.
@meh: demons collecting loosh is the plot of the Monsters Inc. (2001) movie. Don’t believe in such kiddie stories. Conspiracy theorists may say it’s disclosure for consent…
HG, I agree. Most people, though, apparently never encounter the gods.
Here’s a quote from Carl Jung:
Life has always seemed to me like a plant that lives on its rhizome. Its true life is invisible, hidden in the rhizome. The part that appears above ground lasts only a single summer. Then it withers away—an ephemeral apparition. When we think of the unending growth and decay of life and civilizations, we cannot escape the impression of absolute nullity. Yet I have never lost a sense of something that lives and endures underneath the eternal flux. What we see is the blossom, which passes. The rhizome remains.
Thanks for another update.
> I find it strange how nobody is really remarking on this. We have a pretty clear pattern: Glycans introduced on N1, followed by new glycans for N2, then followed by new glycans for N3.
I was recently reading some of your older stuff, and found this, from March 2021:
> Github? Never heard of it.
> Similarly, it’s something to be proud of if you have no clue what virus variant the epidemiologists are terrorizing your mom with now. Pakistani variant? Mexican variant? I honestly don’t know.
https://www.rintrah.nl/things-that-i-found-entertaining-lately/
My goodness, how things have changed. Ironically, many of those molecular epidemiologists (“variant trackers”) have now moved on with their lives, when they should be urgently warning global governments about these worrying viral variants with convergent mutations.
Instead, only the autists are paying attention when it matters the most.
Yeah I’m well aware and kinda hate it. But when you vaccinate against these viruses, you make it worse. All the chicken viruses they vaccinate against prove this, so I can’t look away.
This is the type of post that I keep checking everyday for.
Just last week, I got a bad “flu”, which I think most likely covid. It’s resolved now, but I also wonder how many more covid I can survive. And how many cancers people will get from all those vaccines…
Forget about Biden and Trump and all the useless clowns. The doomsday is coming while people keep trying to look away.
One must be deeply embedded in the matrix in order to desire saving the globohomo world
Just let it go
i send my kids to (private) school, i write my proposals for government grants, i do my research on cutting edge electronics, i dutifully report to the oncologist for my anti-cancer drugs, and i can’t wait for the cleansing fire.
the dissonance is starting to manifest…
At this point after 5 years of pandemia I’ve concluded that I’m completely impervious to the coof, just as some people were unaffected by the Black Death in the 14th century.
I’ve strangely never been so healthy.
A virus isn’t going to get everybody.
A virus can never get EVERYBODY and this one isn’t touching me, no matter how much it mutates.
Maybe it’s my smell that it doesn’t like, I don’t know.
Maybe it’s the whisky.
Covid stays away from anyone who comments three times in a row. Way too risky.
Charlie, I have an uncle who is around 70 years old, he has been a heavy drinker and chain smoker his entire life. I met up with him recently, in the ~ 2 hours we were talking, he had a can of Dutch Gold and 3 bottles of Heineken, and at least 5 cigarettes (maybe even close to 10, I lost count). Anyway, I was absolutely shocked when he told me that he never took the vaccine! The vaccine uptake rate in his age group was pretty much 100% in my country, but he never took it, I couldn’t believe what I was hearing. And get this, he is like you, he hasn’t been sick at all since the pandemic began. The nicotine really must be protecting him.
I’ve been taking the nicotine chewing gum and lozenges pretty regularly in the last couple of months, so hopefully it’s helping me also. Thankfully I don’t seem to be addicted, I haven’t had any for around a week, yet I have no cravings. Also, my tolerance for them is still low, just 2 mg and I feel a bit dizzy, 4 mg and I feel so nauseous that I literally have to sit down for at least 15 minutes. Some of the pouches they sell where I am each have 14 mg nicotine, and some people go through an entire tin of those pouches in a couple of days, that is a crazy amount.
LSWMLM, yes, I’ve been smoking up a storm for over 40 years and maybe the nicotine has something to do with the fact that I’ve never had covid or even been sick this entire time, like your uncle. Or maybe just not taking it too seriously means something.
You should never take nicotine to the point that it makes you dizzy! Ease up.
Here’s my recipe for not getting infected with covid: I did … NOTHING.
I never changed my habits in the slightest for this “pandemic.”
– no vax
– no facemask
– no social distancing
– no supplements, no nattokinase, no mushrooms, not even vitamin C, nothing.
I maintained my regular enjoyable regimen of whisky and cigarettes, ate whatever I wanted, and that’s all. I’ll probably live to be 110.
That’s funny, I actually quit vaping nicotine like 6 or 7 weeks ago. I feel like absolute shit but I can tell my health has improved overall because my wounds heal like five times faster than before and I can somehow physically feel that my blood pressure is better. It’s just that every joint in my body hurts and I sleep for 16 hours a day. I think that nicotine is not really worth it. It’s also bad for you energetically. Pretty much everyone in this realm basically has demons living in their energy bodies and I just so happen to be blursed with the ability to perceive mine. So in addition to the nicotine withdrawals, I have to do energy work to erase swarms of ornery interdimensional insects from inside of myself, that give me a host of rather unpleasant visceral symptoms, at a time when I otherwise lack the motivation to do so. It’s been ‘fun’. But I know it will be worth it for my health in the end.
Per Dr. Claire Taylor (on X), almost all of her long covid patients are unable to tolerate alcohol: “Prior to long Covid they could drink alcohol with no issues. Literally changes overnight after infection.””Classical reaction is flushing, itching, burning&tachycardia. Pots is generally worse. But can also cause very hungover feeling even after a very small amount eg a few sips.” (https://x.com/drclairetaylor/status/1859052744541192417)
Now THAT is scary.
About 80% experience no symptoms or a mild cold. Sorry, but you are just average after all.
I’m curious to understand more about herd immunity because it seems like so much is riding on this concept. These poor folk in NYC that are vaxxed up to high heaven are not faring well.
Have we EVER been in a situation like the current predicament where a virus continues to evolve unabated while messing with our immunity? As far as my simple, non-science mind understands, the evolutionary outcome in this case is usually NOT good for the host species. I mean, does a species EVER outperform a virus to have the virus simply go away? Or is this really a unique situation because of the mass population jabs? If so, should we just get some popcorn and wait for the grand finale?
For anyone interested in an interview on herd immunity with Dr. GVB tonight (Tue, 11/19): https://x.com/TrialsiteN/status/1857838218005155981/photo/1
Herd immunity is the 25% who didn’t get vaxxed, and maybe a few more who got one and stopped. NYC has 8 million of the stupidest people in the world. All crowded together in filth, like those farmed chickens. And vaxed to the hilt.
I was just told by a friend who still lives in my home town in New England that everyone she knows has a wheezy cough right now. She said she had it, and so did her husband. But I couldn’t tell that they did, even though I spent several hours with them. I am starting to wonder about the sensation that people are having, since I am not actually hearing people cough much; I just flew to the East coast to see my elderly mom and really no-one in the airports seemed to be coughing. Most people looked really terrible, however. The only exceptions were those really young people who weren’t gigantically obese; I guess it is hard to look bad if you are a teenager or in your early twenties.
I learned that my friend and her husband had been vaxxed because directly after Biden issued the order that all be vaxxed, their employers demanded it. They really, really did not want to take the vax but they are working class and they could not afford to lose their jobs; they would have been homeless. They both had side effects and have had lingering effects (mostly neuropathic, but also blood pressure and blood sugar issues). I try not to hate people but Biden and Harris are monsters.
Cool, cool, this is nearby!!!
“California health officials reported Tuesday that a child in Alameda County tested positive for H5 bird flu last week.
The source of infection is not known — although health officials are looking into possible contact with wild birds — and the child is recovering at home with mild upper respiratory symptoms. . . .The initial test showed low levels of the virus and, according to the state health agency, testing four days later showed no virus. . . .A statement from the California Department of Public Health said that none of the child’s family members have the virus, although they, too, had mild respiratory symptoms. They are also being treated with antiviral medication. . . .The child attended a day care while displaying symptoms. People the child may have had contact with have been notified and are being offered preventative antiviral medication and testing.”
But there’s noting to worry about!!!! ““It’s natural for people to be concerned, and we want to reinforce for parents, caregivers and families that based on the information and data we have, we don’t think the child was infectious — and no human-to-human spread of bird flu has been documented in any country for more than 15 years,” said CDPH Director and State Public Health Officer Dr. Tomás Aragón.”
“Genetic sequencing of the California child’s virus has not been released, so it is unclear if it is of wild bird origin, or the one moving through the state’s dairy herds.”
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-11-19/alameda-county-child-believed-to-be-latest-case-of-bird-flu-source-unknown
i’m too lazy to pull one up, but i’m sure an enterprising googlenaut can find an analogous quote from fauci in early 2020…
About the child testing positive for H5:
“Tested positive” = “we ran 40 cycles of PCR, so we got a test with a 97% false positive rate”
That’s what they gleefully did during the coronacircus pandemic.
The fact that a mild URI case makes it to the LA Times is a dead giveaway it’s an act of propaganda.
Also, do all children who are presented to a doctor for a URI in Los Angeles get administered a H5 test? Or only those that are supposed to get into the paper?
I have raised several kids here in the US. Every time I took them to the doctor with some kind of URI they got prescribed the usual things, and then the practitioner moved on to the next patient ASAP because they had to make their quota. No unnecessary tests that would not change the treatment anyway. Just the strep test to see if antibiotics are required.
The argument being made is that there was something worrisome about this particular case that caused the authorities to test, but that they aren’t revealing what it was. Which is consistent with what you are saying. Of course it is bizarre that a kid who is brought in for a mild URI would be tested for bird flu, especially since he or she did not have any particular exposure. Of course I don’t know which it is: propaganda meant to cause fear, or real info only leaking out in small amounts. Given the money involved in the dairy industry in CA, it could be the latter.
So it’s either incompetent propaganda that anyone who has two neurons can see through, or shady incompetent behavior on par with Soviet authorities in the 1980s.
If it really is bird flu, then those kids are lucky. They’ll be fully or partially immune for life. Provided their parents don’t fvck it up by giving them the mRNA vaxine sure to be coming one day.
In https://www.rintrah.nl/the-glycans-are-coming/ (Aug 30) it was N1, N3, N5 that were covered; now it’s N1, N2, N3… What am I missing? Are the two posts discussing different strains, which are taking multiple approaches towards building a complete glycan shield?
There are five loops. The most immunogenic ones seem to be N1 N3 and N5 (at least before the glycans showed up). But N1 and N2 turn out to be most important for neutralization. I didn’t know that back in August, because the study that found it had not been published yet.
i hate your blog and your posts are dogshit but you’re one of the very few who understands that bird flu is going to make us regret waking up in the morning. try not to let it all get to you
Show us your big dick, baby boy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ6UzMUpkBg
“Charlie the Scorpion
November 19, 2024 at 10:14 pm
LSWMLM, yes, I’ve been smoking up a storm for over 40 years and maybe the nicotine has something to do with the fact that I’ve never had covid or even been sick this entire time, like your uncle.
…
I maintained my regular enjoyable regimen of whisky and cigarettes, ate whatever I wanted, and that’s all. I’ll probably live to be 110.”
Well the longest-lived person in human history (Jeanne Calment, 122) seems to have drunk plenty of wine (she lived in France after all) eaten lots of chocolate (it would have been higher cocoa than UK rubbish under that name) and smoked a few cigarettes per day for 96 years of that. The cigarettes would have been air-cured, not flue-cured.
Perhaps if your diet is fairly full of healthy food (it was in 20th.C southern France, especially for the fairly well-off) your immune system stays in top condition and keeps any tumours from tobacco smoke at bay. Consuming some tobacco leaves via other routes wouldn’t even pose that small hazard.
I just rely on healthy food, exercise and wine for medicinal purposes, i.e. in moderation and mostly organic.
Lel
I bet there was a young woman back in the 70ies telling the exact same story.
Other areas in this world, while vaxxed at 90%, have nothing.
Mind > Matter
I bet the easiness they can deal with the problem (TM) correlates with how much slack a culture has built in.
24/7-high octane culture? You are sick.
Dolce far niente aleays possible? You are fine.
Until it kills both. But in the meantime, one culture faired better.
Regarding persistent coughs; I’ve seen my (entirely unvaxxed) kid coughing more than seems reasonable over the past 2-3 years, enough to have been concerned for his lung health, and I’ve thus done anything I could think of to try to help him. After trying loads of different things, I’ve found one thing that has worked consistently against these repeated infections, which is nebulized iodine. 1 drop (about 0.05ml) of 5% lugol’s iodine in 5ml of distilled water has worked repeatedly against new infections. I’d say more but I’ve found previously that our host is a bit of a twat; perhaps this info will help someone, anyway.
1 out of 5 of my kids has “coughing more than seems reasonable over the past 2-3 years”. This is the kid who sat on lap of senior and only vaxed family member, including straight after getting the vax, to read stories together. Strongly suspect shedding. Sigh. it’s hard work being a person sometimes. thanks for the the suggestion, and good luck.
i dunno, i remember a stretch as an adolescent (10-13ish) when i would have persistent coughs that would last months on end. that was 30 years ago, and i turned out ok. not *everything* is due to covid.
Looking at the graphs I do not get the impression that virulency is increasing. Fewer people test positive for Covid but the mortality is high for the last week. If you adjust the mortality numbers per test then the mortality % is about 3.5% for week Oct 2. In other words similar number of people have been passing away. I’m not sure you can say that virulence is increasing. It seems there could be another reason for high mortality rate for the weeks after Oct 2. For example it could be that the virus mutated and the test does not pick up the positives early enough i.e. specificity of the test went down. Or new variants have longer incubation time etc.
Rintrah, did you see this new preprintpaper, confirming your assertions
?
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.11.12.623078v1
Thanks, I think I’ve seen it before
3.4% fatality rate about to get smoked
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1859596285549920658
That whiny blonde’s video – that’s some high-quality evidence that everyone in NYC is coughing their lungs out.
It’s anecdotal, true. But I live in San Francisco, Pacific Heights, and do yoga. This summer and fall I heard multiple yoga goddesses complaining about getting sick with “colds” that they can’t shake. These women are late 20’s to early 30’s, high income, take excellent care of themselves, slender but strong, some have 6-pack abs… They’re just physical specimens. Getting recurrent colds that they can’t shake.
So, here’s another anecdote for you.
“#H5N1 confirmed California Dairy Herds jumps to 398
Genotype B3.13 likely”
398 herds is about 36 percent of the dairy herds in CA.
Just a few days ago it was 30 percent.
Unfortunately it is happy pigs on hobby farms that are now an issue.
“”One such exposure Scholz references was the owner witnessing one of the Kunekune pigs eating a dead duck, following multiple cases of waterfowl on the farm developing neurological symptoms and dying over about three days.”” . . . “Scholz, who provided an overview of the first detection of H5N1 in pigs during a Swine Health Information Center/American Association of Swine Veterinarians webinar, says another discovery was the farm not only had three Kunekune pigs, but also two miniature teacup pigs that were housed with the chickens, approximately 15 feet from the waterfowl pond.” ““The teacup minis were about the size of their Barred Rock chickens and kind of blended in with the chickens. They were housed in the chicken coop with them, and so they were not originally sampled during our first visit,” Scholz says.” . . . “”While the authorities were able to sample the two teacup mini pigs and three Kunekune pigs without much difficulty, depopulating the 250-pound Kunekune pigs proved otherwise.”
notably: “” . . . Scholz notes the team did run up against some headwinds with the
@USDA, in convincing them that the pigs needed to be euthanized and were truly infected.””
https://x.com/KinCONN/status/1859666599403454648
So the USDA is not hoping to find these cases.
I wonder what they would find if they wanted to really look.
There are a lot of those homestead type farms, and their occupants are not always interested in being told what to do. These pigs are for show and are pets, often (“While Oregon is not home to large-scale, commercial swine operations, the state does have a fairly robust show pig industry”).
Has anybody seen the latest post bij Geert VDB? Is he concluding that bird flu is going to solve covid and vice versa, or am i reading it wrong