I don’t think there has ever been such a good test of character and intelligence as support for the lockdowns. Intelligent and good people don’t support living in a police state where government officials literally pull out the measuring tape to determine whether you’re sitting 1.5 meter away from your friends. Someone who supports this lockdown is just not an admirable person.
This is the sort of dystopian nonsense you now get to see in the Dutch parks:
We need to put up a fight against this stuff, because this is not acceptable. The Dutch police are now bullying people into staying home. When people want to go to the beach, roads are simply blocked off. Or consider this absurdity, where the police simply force everyone in a shopping street to leave, because they decide that it has gotten too crowded:
This is how you wake up one day and realize you live in a dictatorship. We should not put up with this. If you’re afraid of the virus, that can be forgiven, you’re just bad at math. What you should be afraid of are cancer, strokes, aneurysms, vehicular accidents and mental illness. Those are big killers, that ruin the lives of otherwise healthy people. A young man or woman can suddenly turn out to have glioblastoma multiforme and be dead before the end of the year.
My own father has metastatic prostate cancer and that’s a real killer, the most common cancer in men. Obesity is a huge risk factor, but people don’t connect the dots. Fortunately, I am now able to report that his cancer is now dormant, as his Psa values have remained stable for three consecutive tests and the oncologist doesn’t plan on testing again until three months from now. The nurses were surprised when they saw how rapidly his Psa values declined. As I have said before, I think the only real chance you have to beat the odds is with a cocktail of a lot of different approaches, there is not one magic bullet. My father received chemo and androgen deprivation therapy simultaneously, he also practices intermittent fasting, changed his diet and receives menaquinone-7 and cannabidiol. I wish people were at least a fraction as concerned about obesity as they are about this virus.
What I can’t forgive, are people who are afraid of this virus and now want to tell other people how to live out their lives. I can tolerate the fact that you’re dumb, I can’t tolerate it when you try to turn your stupidity into my problem. If you are afraid of other people infecting you with a virus, then it’s your responsibility to deal with that, not mine. There are over 200 known viruses that can cause a cold, I don’t feel like shutting down civilization over it.
On 20 March 2020, I was one of the first people to tell you that this virus is just not a big deal. Ultimately, my reason for that was rather simple, I based myself off what little information was available at the time: A virus with an average age of death of 80 is not going to be a big killer. You might think that since then, as new evidence has come in, I have moderated my views. You would be wrong, because the evidence has merely backed up my assertions.
Where do we start?
What the antibody surveys tell us
A doctor sees a bunch of patients in the hospital, some of those patients die and then you have a mortality rate. If you look at the number and apply it to the whole world, you’ll panic. That’s basically what the WHO did, they terrorized the whole world with a ridiculous number:
Trump to Hannity on WHO saying coronavirus death rate is 3.4%: “I think the 3.4% number is really a false number. Now this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations … personally, I’d say the number is way under 1%.”
Astoundingly irresponsible. pic.twitter.com/uC9c03zX31
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 5, 2020
If you’re ever wondering whether to trust new information released by the World Health Organization, you should ask an American real estate mogul for his hunch. The guy has a better track record than the people who went to college for this stuff. Greta Thunberg goes around telling people to “listen to the experts”, but if we did that with Corona, we would be sitting in fallout shelters right now. The experts were wrong.
The reason angry white males like Trump had it right and the experts had it wrong is because we didn’t know at the time how many people have the virus but suffered such a mild infection that they never showed up to the hospital.
That’s why you do antibody surveys. Test blood samples from a randomized section of the population, figure out what percentage of them have antibodies, extrapolate that to the whole population, compare it to the number of deaths and you have a cautious infection fatality rate.
We’ve had numerous such tests and they’re all over the place. In New York you’ll find estimates around 1%. In Japan, you’ll find estimates around 0.1%. When faced with a situation like that, you need review studies, like the one done by Ioaniddis. According to Ioaniddis, the corrected range of these studies lies between 0.02% and 0.4%.
What the antibody surveys don’t tell us
If you participate in a test like this and it turns out that you have antibodies, we can say that you had the virus and you’re now immune. What if you participate in a test like this and don’t have antibodies? Does that mean you never had the virus? No, it merely means that they couldn’t detect antibodies. There can be a number of reasons for that.
It’s possible that you had the virus a long time ago, but no longer have enough antibodies against the virus to show up as positive in tests. A lot of people insist they had the virus in january. I know you might have seen snarky articles by numale journalists writing for Vox and other mediocre magazines, insisting that “no you didn’t have corona in january”, but those guys are wrong. The first cases of COVID-19 in Europe can now be dated back to November. At this point, we really don’t even know for sure whether the virus began in Wuhan, or whether these guys were simply the first ones to detect it.
More importantly however, if you had a mild case of the virus, you don’t always produce detectable levels of antibodies in your serum. I already expected this and wrote down my reasons for not believing the antibody tests give us a full picture here.
With new studies coming in, it’s now apparent that my expectation was right. We test people’s blood to look for antibodies, but new studies show that people with mild infections only tend to have detectable levels of antibodies in their mucosa. As a consequence, an antibody test that finds a 5% antibody prevalence rate in a population doesn’t really tell us what we think it tells us: Even our antibody tests are missing a lot of mild cases.
I should note that you don’t just have to believe an anonymous Dutch guy on the intertubes. Theoretical epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta from Oxford University has explained in an interview that antibody surveys only reveal a fraction of people who have had the virus. Her estimate of the infection fatality rate of this virus is between 0.01% and 0.1%, her best estimate is 0.05%. My own estimate is very similar to hers.
This bring me to another point I briefly need to mention. I would strongly recommend working class white people to stop being so hysterical about immigration. If you get sick, I really really hope for you that you get an Indian doctor. Everything I’ve seen in my life suggests that they are devoted to their work and competent.
In addition, I really hope for you that you don’t get a skinny blonde woman with wealthy parents as your doctor. That’s how you get put on a ventilator early, to protect the skinny blonde women with wealthy parents against “aerosolizing procedures”:
Some people will tell me “you’re racist, not all skinny blonde women with wealthy parents are too busy virtue signaling on Twitter to make sure their patients receive the optimal treatment”. However, I stand by my point: If your grandmother starts coughing, you take her to the local ER, open the door and it smells like Starbucks pumpkin spice latte instead of Dal Makhani, you need to turn around immediately and tell your grandmother that you took her to the wrong hospital. You can thank me later.
How many people are going to get the batsoupflu?
Herd immunity is a terrible strategy, it will kill a lot of people because 60% of people will need to get the virus and the antibody tests show that only 5% of people in our country have had the virus so far! You already know that this is nonsense now, as the antibody tests only reveal a fraction of the people who had the virus.
This 60% model is used all the time, to arrive at really faulty conclusions. Here’s an example:
In red you see the number of Intensive Care patients the Dutch CDC expected based off the implemented policies, whereas the blue figure shows what actually happened. You would expect that people start questioning this 60% herd immunity model now that Denmark has mostly ended its measures and Danish experts are shocked to see that there is no spike in new hospitalizations. Here’s the new cases that have been observed in Denmark:
This is really embarassing for the experts, because the measures have now been mostly abolished, but everytime the measures were reduced, there was no spike in cases. And yet, if you look at the antibody surveys in Denmark, only a fraction of the population has had the virus. It’s the same thing in Sweden, which has had no lockdown. About 7.3% of Stockholm shows antibodies, but this is what’s happening to COVID-19 intensive care hospitalizations in Sweden:
Shock, horror, how is this possible? Most people haven’t had the virus yet, so how could it be that hospitalizations are already rapidly going down, even without a lockdown?
Another example can be seen here in Madrid:
In this graph I have shown with the red line when the lockdown was implemented. It takes a few weeks before an infected person dies, so in blue you can see the point where we would expect the lockdown to start showing any measurable effects on mortality rates. How is it possible that deaths in Madrid plunged so rapidly?
The answer my friends, is that herd immunity kicks in much faster than people think it does. When the Swine flu broke out in 2008, a new virus against which people did not have immunity, how many people around the world got it? The estimate is that 11-22% of the global population got the virus. When the Spanish flu broke out in 1918, what percentage of the world’s population got the virus? An estimated 500 million people, a third of the world’s population at the time.
Why didn’t these viruses infect a larger share of the population? The herd immunity threshold is much lower than people believe it is. In reality, our best estimate based on the current evidence is that just 10-20% of people need to be infected before you reach the herd immunity threshold. The reason for that is because not every person is equally likely to get infected, or spread the virus.
The “super-spreaders”, the kind of people who travel to busy places and infect a lot of people, are also the kind of people who are first to get infected, because they travel to a lot of busy places. By the time those people have had the virus and become immune, the virus is left with average people, who don’t travel as much. Similarly, the virus first infects relatively sick people, who take a long time to clear the virus and thus spend a lot of time highly contagious.
In other words, the virus gets to the juiciest people first and rapidly runs out of those people. Then it reaches a point where the only people left to infect are people who are bad at spreading the virus. This starts happening quite rapidly, at around 10-20%. This is when it becomes very difficult for the virus to spread, so it starts to die out at this point, regardless of any lockdown.
This is very important to understand, because it means you can cut down most estimates of how many people will get hospitalized or die. It’s important to understand these numbers, because the European discussions tend to go like this:
Brain-dead numale in the media with a beard and a fancy haircut: “Antibody surveys show that just 5% of the population has been infected, but the virus won’t disappear until we reach the herd immunity threshold of 60%. If we lift the lockdown now, deaths will shoot up, we need to wait until there’s a vaccine!”
Guy with an IQ above room temperature (aka me): “Actually, antibody surveys merely show us a fraction of the population that has been infected. In addition, the herd immunity threshold is not the 60% figure you see cited everywhere, it’s more likely to be around 10-20% in most places, except in a few small densely populated communities where you can exceed the normal herd immunity threshold. We have already reached the point where acquired herd immunity is dramatically slowing down the spread of this virus.”
Brain-dead numale in the media with a beard and a fancy haircut: “Stop being anti-science! You just want a haircut as fancy as mine! We can’t sacrifice human lives for the economy! Listen to the experts!”
How many people actually died from the batsoupflu?
It would be nice to know how many people actually died from COVID-19, but the numbers reported in the media don’t tell you that. Right now, we simply don’t know how many people have died from this virus. If you’re in the hospital and doctors discover you test positive for COVID-19, that doesn’t mean you died from the virus, it merely shows that you died with the virus. Worse, in the United States, you can be reported as a COVID-19 death, without ever being tested for the virus, if your symptoms seem to fit COVID-19.
This leads to “funny” situations, like a 27 year old who was shot in the streets being reported on the frontpage of the New York Times as a COVID-19 death. Or even better yet, the guy with a 0.55% blood alcohol concentration who was reported to have died of batsoupflu.
So, now you’re wondering: Can’t we just use excess mortality to determine how many people this virus killed? You subtract deaths in 2019 around this time of the year from deaths in this year and so you have your COVID-19 death toll. The answer is that no, we can’t.
Consider this: In Austria, estimates are that 110 people died from untreated cardiovascular disease, during a time period in which just 86 people died from COVID-19. In Scotland, estimates are that a third of excess observed mortality is due to the virus, with the other two thirds due to the lockdown.
In the United States, the evidence suggests that excess mortality is actually lower than the reported COVID-19 death toll. This means that either deaths in the United States from other factors have somehow plunged, or people are reported as having died from COVID-19, who didn’t actually die from this virus.
But what about New York City???
New York State reports 28,000 deaths. Based off the seroprevalence data, that leaves you with an infection fatality rate of around 1%. People who think this virus is far deadlier than a typical cold virus will thus point at New York City. And I must admit, it’s impressive how many people have died in New York City. Impressive, in the sense that the deaths in New York City happened as a consequence of extremely bad policies.
New York’s governor Cuomo, darling of the New York Times and other media that would like the guy to become president one day, sent 4,300 recovering COVID-19 patients to nursing homes. Remember, in the Netherlands, Sweden and most other countries, nursing home residents are not allowed to see their family members, because the virus is so deadly. But Cuomo thinks it’s a good idea to send people who are recovering from this virus into nursing homes. That’s how you kill people.
New York City has some of the worst hospitals out there in the United States. Latest figures show that 34% of New York City hospital receive a one star ranking. Only Florida comes close to that, at 20%. New York City simply has terrible hospitals and that’s why we have whistleblowers who are shocked by what they saw in those hospitals. Here’s a nurse who was completely shocked by what she saw happening in these hospitals:
All the statistics also show that something is going terribly wrong in New York City hospitals. I explained it here. The main thing going wrong in these hospitals is that they are putting patients on ventilators for very long periods. This causes bacterial lung infections after a while, that will cause long-term lung damage, or simply kill a person. You could take perfectly average old people, intubate them and put them on ventilators for days and you will still witness deaths, you don’t need a corona virus for that. One New York City doctor, Dr Cameron Kyle-Sidell, resigned from his job, because he simply could not agree to the treatment protocol he was forced to use for COVID-19 patients.
There are other things going on in New York City, the city suffers from exceptionally high air pollution for example, but the main thing that’s going wrong in NYC is simply that patients there are receiving terrible treatment.
In 2018, 9.444 people in the Netherlands died of influenza. Nobody knew about it, until COVID-19 broke out. I’m giving you a prediction today: We’ll have something similar from COVID-19. I don’t know what statistical tricks the Americans will use to make this appear like the mass slaughter they want it to be, but the Dutch aren’t going to pull off such statistical trickery.
But I need to make two more points: In the months ahead, the number of deaths observed will be below what you would normally expect, because of the harvesting effect: A large number of people now dying, are people who would have otherwise died within a few months anyway. The people now dying in nursing homes had a few months of life left.
“But what about the second wave!?!? The second wave of Spanish flu was deadlier than the first wave!” If that’s what you fear you should want people to get this virus now, during the summer, when people are healthier and ICU’s are not overcrowded, instead of keeping us all locked up so that more people get it during the next winter.
I’ll give you something to nail me down: There will be a second wave of COVID-19 cases this winter, but it will lead to less deaths than the COVID-19 deaths we have seen so far. The second wave will be the biggest nothingburger ever. Why is that? Very simple:
-We know now how to properly treat patients. Don’t intubate unless absolutely necessary. Put them in the prone position, give them an oxygen mask. Give them anti-coagulants to prevent the formation of blood clots that make breathing more difficult. Avoid vitamin D deficiency.
-Most of the vulnerable population is now dead or immune.
-The virus is not somehow going to dramatically change in the months ahead, it mutates less rapidly than influenza.
-There’s good reason to believe a lot of people in 1918 actually died from poor treatment in the second wave of influenza. Patients were given massive doses of aspirin.
-You can’t compare Western civilization today to the post-WWI era when society laid in shambles.
Vitamin therapy is more effective than lockdowns
Scientists around the world are now desperately looking for evidence to suggest that these lockdowns have actually worked. The evidence isn’t there. Sweden falls in the high range of deaths, but the death rate is still lower than in Belgium, Spain, the UK and Italy, despite being a country far up North. They’re also counting deaths that other countries are not including. My country for example is not including all nursing home deaths, while Sweden is including those deaths. Numales are now desperate to prove that Sweden has had a high death rate, because they suffer cognitive dissonance from being locked up in their homes over a cold virus, but the evidence is lacking.
But let’s say we’re worried about COVID-19 and we want to bring down the deaths. We have no good evidence that lockdowns work. One study looked at the numbers and found:
In univariate (but not multivariable) analyses, prevalence of smoking, per-capita gross domestic product, and colder average country temperature were positively associated with coronavirus-related mortality. In a multivariable analysis of 183 countries, urbanization, the duration of the infection in the country, and percent of the population at least 60 years of age were all positively associated with per-capita mortality, while duration of mask-wearing by the public was negatively associated with mortality (all p<0.001). In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 5.4% each week, as compared with 48% each week in remaining countries. In the multivariable analysis, lockdowns tended to be associated with less mortality (p=0.31), and per-capita testing with higher reported mortality (p=0.26), though neither association was statistically significant.
So, in other words, they couldn’t find a statistically significant association. On the other hand, we know of some stuff that actually works: Make sure nobody is vitamin D deficient. Here’s the evidence:
Twenty COVID-19 patients with serum 25OHD levels were identified; 65.0% required ICU admission.The VDI prevalence in ICU patients was 84.6%, vs. 57.1% in floor patients. Strikingly, 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had VDI.
In Alipio’s preprint, of the 49 patients with mild clinical outcomes, 47 had ‘normal’ (>75 nmol/L) 25(OH)D levels. Conversely only 2 of the 48 critical patients had ‘normal’ (>75 nmol/L) 25(OH)D levels. CRUK expert paper 3 states “70–80 nmol/L (28-32 ng/ml) is ‘optimal’.
You’re already bored by this stuff, it’s so painfully obvious. I know, I’m bored too, but we need to go over one more thing: Vitamin K deficiency. One more study:
Vitamin K status was reduced in patients with COVID-19 and related to poor prognosis. Also, low vitamin K status seems to be associated with accelerated elastin degradation. An intervention trial is now needed to assess whether vitamin K administration improves outcome in patients with COVID-19.
If we want to actually save lives, we need to make sure that old people and obese people are not suffering from deficiencies of Vitamin K or Vitamin D. Japan is a nation where old people get their vitamin K2 from Natto, fermented soy. In Japan, there are hardly any COVID-19 deaths. With a healthy population, this virus just doesn’t really kill people. Liberal Americans in the big coastal cities think that people can be fat and unhealthy and yet live forever, simply by locking everyone up inside their homes until a vaccine is found. That’s not how the world works.
If you really want to do the utmost you can do, I would also recommend you to feed your grandmother some oysters for the extra Zinc. But my experience tells me that the kind of people who are morbidly afraid of this virus, are not the kind of people who are willing to eat Natto or Oysters to make sure they stay healthy. Rather, they’re the kind of people who want you and me to stay inside, so that they don’t get sick.
But I’m already bored and this will have to do for now. You and me have to suffer from the collective stupidity of people who are terrorized by the media. Their stupidity prevents you and me from going to the gym or visiting a festival.
IF your politicians tell you that we now need a “1.5 meter society”, or that we need to learn to adjust to the “new normal”, they have a different agenda they’re not telling us about. All the evidence we have points in the same direction: We can safely go back to normal without a vaccine.