There are a lot of people out there who are worried about the emergence of some next new variant of SARS-COV2 that will evade the vaccines. In addition, there are people out there who suggest this is no reason to worry: We’ll simply come up with a new vaccine against this new variant. But I get the impression that everyone seems to be missing something.
“If a new variant pops up that evades the vaccines, we’ll just deploy a new vaccine against that strain” is a bad line of reasoning, because there is not just one particular way to evade our antibody response, there are numerous. What we’re witnessing is that every novel substrain of Delta is evolving in its own unique way, to replicate in our bodies despite the presence of our antibodies.
If you’re waiting for a moment when they will announce “a new strain has been detected in Manchester that’s fully resistant to the vaccines and will soon replace all other strains” then that probably just isn’t going to happen. Rather, it’s going to be more of the usual. With every bit of information released, you’ll find that more and more vaccinated people suffer breakthrough infections and hospitalization.
In fact, with the evidence available to us now, we can say that the vaccines have failed to protect the exact demographic they were supposed to protect: The elderly. Vaccinated elderly are still less likely to die on a per capita basis than unvaccinated elderly for the foreseeable future, simply because the less than 10% or so of elderly people in Western Europe who remain unvaccinated are generally in poorer health: They are mainly ethnic minorities and people living in poverty or isolation.
We can look at cumulative non-COVID mortality in British elderly to see what’s going on:
If you look at this, you’ll notice that vaccinated elderly above 70 are about 55% less likely to die than unvaccinated elderly, from non-COVID causes. And here you have the most recent table for COVID death rates for the elderly:
For the age 80+ group in particular, it becomes clear that the risk of non-COVID death shows an identical pattern to the risk of COVID death. As long as that remains the case, the authorities will never have to admit that the vaccines failed: They will still be able to point to some graph that says vaccinated elderly have a 50% or so reduced chance of death compared to those who were not vaccinated.
With the bullying measures that are currently being taken against unvaccinated people, they’re removing the last healthy people from the unvaccinated demographic: If you can’t go out to a pub or a restaurant and you can’t hold onto a job without being vaccinated, what sort of people become forced to get the vaccine? Unvaccinated people with a healthy active social life, who work a regular job.
The sort people who will not be forced through these measures to get vaccinated, are people who are unemployed due to chronic illness or other factors and unvaccinated elderly people who happen to live in social isolation. In other words: These measures remove healthy people from the unvaccinated demographic. This ensures that the numbers will continue to show that the vaccines “protect” you, even when they don’t.
You should not expect to see some sort of government update where they will eventually admit that unvaccinated people now have a lower risk of dying from the virus than vaccinated people: The measures they are taking have the effect of leaving just a small group of unvaccinated people who are naturally at very high risk of dying from this virus due to their poor health.
Why would they do that? Why are they now suddenly forcing healthy young people to take these vaccines? Well, here’s a possible explanation. Look at it this way: Imagine your politicians genuinely believed the crisis would be over after they vaccinate all the elderly. They began vaccinating people initially, they paused the vaccination program a few times because a lot of people suddenly died after receiving the vaccines, but then they continued the programs anyway because they had no alternative and thought sacrificing a few lives to bring the pandemic to an end is worth the cost.
But then it becomes clear that the vaccines don’t solve the problem, because the immunity doesn’t last. Worse, from the excess mortality data it becomes clear that people are dying from the vaccines. You’re a politician. You made a terrible mistake. So what do you do next? Do you admit that you made the worst public health mistake in history, or do you start trying to figure out how to cover up the problem? All these measures that force low-risk healthy adults with active social lives and stable employment to take this vaccine ensure that the only unvaccinated people left are people in the high risk demographics. This is either a really convenient coincidental side-effect for your government, or they’re simply actively trying to obscure what’s actually happening. If they actively wanted to muddle the data, they couldn’t be doing a better job than they’re currently doing.
When you look at total excess mortality in the population at a given point in time (the number that is very difficult for them to manipulate) compared to one year earlier however, you’ll notice that nothing has changed substantially for the better. As an example, here’s excess mortality in the Netherlands:
Normally a deadly winter is followed by a mild winter, but now we see the exact same thing is happening as last winter. What they’re going to tell you after the winter wave is over is: “sure it looks basically the same as it did last winter, but imagine how much deadlier it would have been if we hadn’t vaccinated everyone”!
What has happened here in Europe is as following. At first we witnessed the emergence of a new virus. Almost none of us had any real immunity against it and the virus was already pretty much optimized to infect naive human beings. By the time we entered winter, plenty of people had some degree of immunity and different variants like Alpha began to emerge, all of which changed in different ways to survive our diverse immune responses to this virus.
Then eventually, we began deploying vaccines. This led to a massive sudden rise in immunity. The virus began to die out. Almost all of the variants disappeared, with the exception of one, that had a unique advantage over all the others. As Japanese scientists have shown, Delta had the unique ability to make use of our antibody response to the NTD region. If you’re waiting for “antibody dependent enhancement”, well, it’s already here. It just doesn’t look the way you expected it would look.
This ability to make use of our antibodies against the NTD region of the Spike protein seems to be the main reason why Delta managed to replace all other strains. It also seems to be why it’s so much more infectious. The deployment of the vaccines represented a massive selection event, that caused one variant to grow dominant at the cost of all other variants.
People will tell you “well the vaccines are not as effective as they had promised, because of a new variant” as if these two are separate occurrences. This is the lie of omission: Why did this new variant suddenly become dominant? The answer is: Because of these vaccines. The immune response of human beings is what imposes selective pressure on this virus. The more our immune response looks similar to that in other people, the more we force selective pressure on this virus in one particular direction. Through the vaccines, which homogenize our immune response against a particular version of the spike protein, we created the kind of conditions in which versions of the virus that look like Delta start to thrive at the expense of other strains of the virus.
And that is the stage we have now reached. Around the Western world, different strains descended from Delta are in a race to accumulate different mutations that overcome our human immune response against the spike protein. You’re unlikely to see any particular strain have a very strong advantage against other strains now and wipe the others out. The low hanging fruit has already been harvested by the virus in the form of Delta becoming dominant. Now it’s a matter of acquiring different mutations, each with a mild advantage.
What that’s going to look like is that around Western Europe, you’re gradually going to see the percentage of vaccinated people in the hospitals approach the 80-90% mark. It’s very unlikely to move above 90% of hospitalizations, because the unvaccinated 7% or so of elderly are overwhelmingly in much poorer health than the vaccinated elderly. But if you didn’t know any better and woke up from a coma and looked at the mortality statistics, you would doubt a vaccine had been deployed.
Unfortunately, for a number of reasons, the vaccines enable a situation that would not have existed if we had built up natural immunity. There are a number of reasons to expect that the virus is going to grow deadlier in the months ahead, compared to the previous winter wave:
-Natural immunity is very diverse. One person’s immune system will focus on the Nucleocapsid protein, another person’s immune system focuses on the Spike protein, or one of the other proteins. Natural immunity is also developed against different variants, whereas artificial immunity is developed against a spike protein that is identical in everyone who receives these vaccines. Because natural immunity is diverse, subtle changes to the virus can’t cause the kind of fitness benefit it can cause under conditions of widespread artificial immunity against one specific version of the Spike protein.
-As everyone has a very similar immune response, we arrive at a situation where the virus can actively use our immune response to its own advantage, through antibody dependent enhancement. Such mutations that enable antibody dependent enhancement typically only have a fitness advantage if almost everyone has these antibodies. There is already a degree of antibody dependent enhancement, because almost all the antibodies induced by the vaccines against the NTD region are used by the currently dominant Delta strains to their advantage.
Limited anti-N antibodies in vaxxed after infection (likely original antigenic sin) acknowledged in this slide from a "Passive Immunity Biomarkers" workshop held by NIH-led ACTIV on 28/29 Sept.
See the circled bit: Anti-N antibodies are "blunted in vaccinated persons". pic.twitter.com/8srHJunkGP
— eugyppius (@eugyppius1) November 4, 2021
–The vaccination campaign hampers the development of complete immunity, as the normal immune response to proteins beyond the Spike protein is prevented due to original antigenic sin. This makes repeated infections more likely. Evidence for this happening already can be seen in the fact that vaccinated Brits have higher case rates than unvaccinated Brits. It can also be seen in the fact that RNA levels in Scottish and Dutch sewage now exceed levels seen during the winter peak.
So how is this experiment going to end? Unvaccinated healthy adults are infected with the virus over time and develop genuine durable immunity. After a year or so you’ll be vulnerable to reinfection, but these reinfections are milder, like a normal common cold. The main reason this virus behaved different from other corona viruses in adults is because we had less immunity to this virus.
The vaccinated adults are at first protected, but the immunity is temporary, as it’s based on a response in your blood, focused solely on an old version of the spike protein. This gradually leads to the next stage of the pandemic, where the virus has nobody left to infect, except for vaccinated people with waning immunity. This is inevitable, because almost all unvaccinated people will develop sterilizing immunity eventually.
Once you have a lot of people with waning vaccine induced immunity compared to unvaccinated people still susceptible to infection, further selection for antibody dependent enhancement and antibody evasion can occur. Mutations that would have had a negative effect on fitness when there were still plenty of unvaccinated young people to infect will now start to have a transmission advantage in the general population and become selected for.
This is the point we have now reached: There are not enough susceptible unvaccinated people left in the population, to force sufficient selective pressure against the spread of new ADE and antibody evading mutations. The virus is now spreading from one vaccinated person to the next vaccinated person on a continual basis. These are the circumstances under which the virus changes to evade the vaccine induced immune response. Such new changes don’t occur when the virus spreads from an unvaccinated person into a vaccinated person, because those changes don’t enhance replication in the unvaccinated person!
This process only really begins once most of the population has been vaccinated and a significant number of mobile people with a lot of contacts have begun to develop waning immunity. This process then takes a while, because the virus takes time to pass through this selective filter: It takes a few days to pass from one person to the next. This process slowly leads to a situation where you will start to see a surge in elderly vaccinated people hospitalized because of Covid.
I have made the following graph, to illustrate how the process works:
If you understand this, then you understand that what they are telling you is exactly backwards: Unvaccinated people are not a danger to vaccinated people. Vaccinated people depend upon a large reservoir of unvaccinated people, for the vaccines to remain effective. This is for example why the vaccine looked highly effective in the American Southern States this summer, but looks highly ineffective in Scotland.
For vaccinated people to remain safe from this virus, mass migration campaigns will be necessary: Vaccinated people will have to spread out among unvaccinated people. As long as vaccinated people only interact with other vaccinated people, natural selection will cause the spread of variants of this virus that evade their immune response. Changing their immune response to a more effective immune response is very difficult and with every booster they receive it will become more difficult.
Once it becomes clear that the vaccines are failing, this then leads your policymakers to the next big dilemma: To boost or not to boost.
-If you decide not to boost, you’re faced with the same sort of situation as we saw last winter or worse. The vaccines won’t be effective and the hospitals won’t be able to deal with the burden of patients, because the hospitals are short-staffed and trying to treat patients whose treatment was delayed.
-If you do decide to boost, you merely kick the can down the hall until next winter. Everytime you inject someone with the same old version of the Spike protein, the immune system learns to zoom in more on this version of the Spike protein, to the expense of its ability to adjust to any novel variants that emerge. It appears to work well in the short term, as evidenced by Israel, but it’s not a sustainable solution, because you hamper the immune system in its ability to adjust to the inevitable further evolution of this virus.
In addition to this there appears to be a two week window after the injection during which you’re at increased risk of getting infected, because many of your white blood cells move to the injection location in your arm. A mass booster campaign can thus cause a further spike in infections.
What has happened is as following: A new virus jumped into the human population, against which we had very little pre-existing immunity. It’s the sort of virus our bodies don’t develop a durable immune response against, because it’s the sort of virus that can use such antibodies to its own advantage when it mutates.
Normally human beings would develop a highly diverse immune response, in response to the various variants that will circulate in the population over time. Because of this diverse immune response, it would be impossible for small mutations to lead to a dramatic increase in immune evasion.
Because of the vaccines, everyone’s immune response now looks highly similar. This has the effect of enabling simple mutations to cause dramatic effects. We have never before had a situation like this in history. It’s through the gradual development of diverse immunity that viruses normally become endemic. We now interfered with this process and are about to discover the consequences.
If you live in a Western European nation, you can now expect roughly the following line of events to proceed:
-Infections and hospitalizations will rise as the weather gets worse and the vaccine induced protection wanes.
-Politicians will initially emphasize that the majority of patients are unvaccinated. Eventually this narrative progresses to “you’re still more likely to end up hospitalized if you’re unvaccinated”, as fully vaccinated patients become the majority. Then they probably double down and decide to rush boosters, while insisting that the vaccine still properly protects you.
-The media and the politicians will insist that this is all due to people who remain unvaccinated, even as the evidence begins to demonstrate the vaccines make no substantial difference, as long as you adjust for demographic confounders (which they generally refuse to do, they prefer to show you the raw numbers). New measures will be implemented that target the unvaccinated, but these measures will have no meaningful impact on the winter wave. If anything, isolating the unvaccinated from the vaccinated makes it easier for vaccine resistant mutations to become dominant.
-Countries like the Netherlands, where politicians were dumb enough to genuinely believe these vaccines would be the end of this mess, will be in big trouble. Eventually they’re forced to abandon their denial and implement a new lockdown that affects vaccinated and unvaccinated people equally. The lockdowns are used to buy time, to deploy new boosters for the elderly and push for vaccination of children. The vaccination of children however is the most effective way possible to create immune evading variants, because unvaccinated children are a bulwark of natural selection against vaccine evading mutations. The more children we vaccinate, the more we accelerate the catastrophe that is about to happen.
-After a horrific winter with excess mortality exceeding the previous winter, hospitalizations eventually decline again. But the problem hasn’t gone away.
-The different circulating descendants of Delta continue to diverge from each other. Other variants like Beta may show up in Europe too. This now prohibits the deployment of a new effective vaccine against Delta, because these strains are evolving in exactly opposite directions away from the Wuhan version. The virus will now develop such variation that it’s no longer possible to deploy an effective vaccine.
-While the genetic diversity of the virus will have increased, the diversity of our immune response against the virus will have decreased. Most adults will have been injected three or even four times, with a Wuhan version of the spike protein. With every time you are injected with these vaccines, your immune system is forced to focus more of its response on this Wuhan version of the spike protein, to the expense of your immune system’s ability to respond to all other parts of the virus and all other variants that evolve over time.
Politicians will realize that the old vaccines will no longer work for next winter, but they are not immunologists and expect that you can simply come up with a new vaccine once the descendants of Delta have evolved to no longer be affected by this vaccine. This is however not possible for two reasons:
1. As genetic diversity increases, it becomes impossible to predict which strain a particular region or individual will be affected by, thus it becomes hard to optimize the vaccine.
2. Because of original antigenic sin, first exposure limits the ability to adjust to subsequent exposures. The response to subsequent exposures will be shaped by the first exposure. Generally speaking, vaccination with new strains merely recalls the response from vaccination with old strains, rather than creating a new response.
Because it won’t be possible to use effective vaccines, the winter from 2022 to 2023 then leads to a massive wave of deaths unlike anything we have seen so far.
We have never before done something like this in human history. We have injected the whole population with “vaccines”, that make it slightly more difficult for this virus to replicate in a person’s body, but still allow a person to get infected and pass it on. That’s how you generate an explosion in new variants.
What’s important to understand is that the vaccines serve as an evolutionary stepping stone too: Intermediate mutations that could never have survived long enough to develop further mutations can now survive in this new environment of artificial vaccine induced immunity. Remember, people are not developing the broad natural sterilizing immunity involving almost every protein in the virus in their mucous membranes, that prohibits them from getting infected. Such immunity prevents their bodies from serving as training grounds for the virus to evolve further.
No, they’re developing “I’ll ignore you if you make sure your spike protein doesn’t look exactly like what I was taught to look for” immunity in blood, rather than in the mucous membranes of the upper respiratory tract. This is how you generate an explosion of variants, with changes in the spike protein. Variants that can jump into other animal species where they can evolve further. Variants that evolve to make use of your antibody response. Variants with all sorts of advantages can now evolve, because people with waning vaccine induced immunity against the Spike protein are a perfect evolutionary stepping stone.
One of the factors required for our species to reach such high population densities as we have reached today is the diversity of our immune response from person to person:
MHC loci are some of the most genetically variable coding loci in mammals, and the human HLA loci are no exceptions. Despite the fact that the human population went through a constriction several times during its history that was capable of fixing many loci, the HLA loci appear to have survived such a constriction with a great deal of variation. Of the 9 loci mentioned above, most retained a dozen or more allele-groups for each locus, far more preserved variation than the vast majority of human loci. This is consistent with a heterozygous or balancing selection coefficient for these loci. In addition, some HLA loci are among the fastest-evolving coding regions in the human genome. One mechanism of diversification has been noted in the study of Amazonian tribes of South America that appear to have undergone intense gene conversion between variable alleles and loci within each HLA gene class. Less frequently, longer-range productive recombinations through HLA genes have been noted producing chimeric genes.
If we had HLA genes with very little diversity, we would all have a very similar immune response to pathogens. The lack of diversity in their HLA genes is one of the factors that made Native Americans so vulnerable to the viruses introduced by European colonizers: These viruses could spread in an environment of a homogeneous immune response, which allowed these viruses to evolve to make optimal use of that particular environment.
If we had HLA genes with little diversity, pathogens would evolve variants that overcome that particular immune response. The diversity of our immune response prohibits this from happening: Any particular change can’t help a pathogen much, when everyone responds to the pathogen in a different way.
With the spike based vaccines, we have done the exact worst thing you could possibly do: We homogenized the human immune response, to a new virus that is rapidly becoming more genetically diverse. This is something we will come to regret, because we’ll be dealing with the consequences of that mistake in the form of impaired immunity against this virus for decades. With every new booster we inject people with we homogenize the immune response again and make it yet more difficult for the immune system to respond to the new variants that will emerge.
The vaccine developers are not very worried about what happens when their vaccine campaign fails, because they’ve never before seen a situation in which a vaccine deployed to hundreds of millions of people has failed. Vaccines that failed and made the disease worse (see Dengue in the Philippines and Respiratory Synctial Virus in the United States) always failed during early trials, in which just a couple of thousand people at most were injected with the vaccine. This is the first time in history it’s happening to hundreds of millions of people simultaneously.
However, the reality is as following: When you inject hundreds of millions of people with a vaccine that is supposed to protect them against a new infectious disease, but the vaccine fails to protect them and vaccinated people can still spread this virus because of the failure of the vaccine, you’re creating the exact conditions in which the virus will grow much more deadly.
But wait, how is this possible? Doesn’t this virus have a ~0.2% infection fatality rate? Don’t 99.8% of people survive a coronavirus infection? Yes, that used to be true, before we began our mass vaccination campaign and the virus began to evolve in response to our mistakes. The reality is now that we’re seeing that breakthrough infections are very severe.
Any intrepid journalists out there want to ask the CDC/FDA about the alarmingly high case-hospitalization rates among vaccinated person's experiencing breakthrough infections (9% in study of 1.7M ppl vs. 1.3% across all CV19 cases in the CDCs COVIDNet network)? pic.twitter.com/kd68YucRPr
— Gus Griffen (@touchandtank) November 9, 2021
Vaccinated people who get infected now have a 9% chance of needing to be hospitalized in the United States. Some of this is due to the fact that breakthrough infections are mostly happening in elderly people, but it’s also a product of the fact that the vaccines prohibit the development of an effective immune response.
Breakthrough infections are more severe than infections before we had vaccines. These breakthrough infections are going to become more common over time. Most importantly however, we can expect that the breakthrough infections will start to grow more severe over time, because we no longer have enough unvaccinated susceptible people whose bodies impose negative selective pressure against antibody escaping/ADE spike protein mutations. The burden on the hospitals will thus increase and ultimately reach the point where hospitals can’t cope with all the patients anymore, leading to a further increase in mortality.
We need healthy young people to remain unvaccinated, not just to protect the vaccinated people and impose selective pressure against antibody evading/ADE spike protein mutations, but for the following reason:
Healthy unvaccinated young people are the only ones who can reveal what happened!
If there are almost no healthy unvaccinated young people left in countries where the majority of people received these vaccines, it will be difficult to prove what they did: They gave people a vaccine that made the pandemic worse. As long as there are many unvaccinated healthy young people left, it will become obvious from the statistics and from people’s own day to day social interactions that healthy unvaccinated young people are not suffering under the effects of this virus.
Without enough healthy unvaccinated young people, it will be easier for governments to pretend that these new deadly waves were simply a product of some new deadlier variant that evolved spontaneously, completely unrelated to the vaccination campaign.
The important thing to understand is that none of this was necessary. It really didn’t have to be like this. It would have been very simple to address this situation, for competent politicians.
Ask yourself the following questions: Why is Sweden doing fine, without any lockdowns? Japan, the country with the oldest population on the planet, has 18000 COVID deaths, just as many as the Netherlands. How did sub-Saharan Africa escape this plague?
It’s really very simple. You really don’t have to be a genius to figure this thing out. These politicians and scientists could have been hailed as heroes, if they did the very simple things that the average guy on the street already figured out:
-Make sure that everyone gets enough vitamin D and vitamin K2.
-Encourage a healthy diet and lifestyle.
-Encourage young people to get infected and become immune.
I’m not going to discuss all the specific details in regards to nutrition, but it should be clear to anyone who looks at the evidence that we know of various nutrients that tremendously reduce risk of severe disease. Politicians don’t seem to care about this however: They want an easy high tech solution that’s consistent, reliable and easy to force upon people.
Human beings can choose to submit to the demands of their body. The body craves certain nutrients, in exchange it delivers us the immunity we need to survive in this world. On the other hand, the response that we chose was government mandated transhumanism: We forced our bodies to change, we tricked the cells in our body to begin to express alien genetic material: mRNA encapsulated in lipids and DNA from an adenovirus vector vaccine.
This is now backfiring. Nature is refusing to bend to our will and the result of this failed experiment will be mass death.