Where the fuck did everybody go?

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Today just something silly, because I’ve altered my neurochemistry. To me this is an interesting intellectual exercise though. If you assumed the government faked statistics, would you notice a bunch of people dying off? The excess mortality statistics right now tend to suggest about 20% more people are dying than usual in most Western nations. If mortality had actually doubled, we would expect governments to hide it. People who produce the statistics wouldn’t feel guilty, they’d think they help to avoid mass panic.

Right now the death rate in my country is said to be about 9.24 per 1000 people per year. But imagine for example, if it had actually doubled. Could you hide such a thing from people? I’ll start with something simple. I don’t think you would notice it by looking for empty houses. After two years an additional 2% of the population would be dead.

The general human pattern of migration to the cities would just continue, so you’d notice the pattern you already notice: Empty houses in the countryside, houses with people living in them in the cities. Houses tend to have multiple people living in them, if one person died, the house wouldn’t look abandoned. You need a pretty massive die-off, to start seeing abandoned houses in cities.

Worse, if there was an actual increase in vacant houses, societies would just adjust. You can now rent out a house through airBnB for example. When my parents opposite neighbors died years ago, my dad would turn on the lights and open and close the curtains for the daughter who inherited the house, so that it wouldn’t look abandoned as they feared someone would break in. If you didn’t pay careful attention, the house would thus still seem occupied. Human beings have a habit of voluntarily making it seem as if business as usual is continuing, even when it isn’t. They don’t need instructions from a boss to do this.

I don’t think house prices would go down much either if people died, except outside the cities a little perhaps. The impact on the economy would force government to increase spending to stimulate the economy. The increase in spending would then cause inflation, of the sort we see today. The government would try to compensate the inflation, like we see today, causing further inflation. This would help prop up house prices too. In addition, construction of new houses would just go down.

So we wouldn’t necessarily notice through real estate prices or even just empty houses. You only really notice that when places are basically depopulated. What would be harder to disguise, is how certain sectors of the economy would just collapse under the weight. You would expect growing labor shortages, with corporations hurrying to replace jobs by AI. The labor shortages would cause prices to go up.

If the chaos from labor shortages were to get really bad, you might even imagine government faking a war, with the fallout from sanctions as an explanation for what’s happening. The sanctions story would seem shoddy and irrational. Politicians would be talking about how the era of prosperity is over.

Obituaries in the newspaper? Well, if the increase to 200% the normal deathrate happened at least somewhat gradually, you wouldn’t directly notice, simply by comparing obituaries with last year. With the economic crisis, a bunch of people might not even bother paying for an obituary.

Would you hear more stories from friends and acquaintances, of people dying? If you’re young like me, you don’t really hear much of people dying anyway, if you’re old it seems like everyone is dying. I have a friend who is involved with funerals, he says that he’s pretty busy, but how do you judge that? People generally complain that they’re busy.

There would after a while probably emerge bigger problems: The threat of blackouts, as the electricity grid no longer works. Purely hypothetically, if vaccines had failed, lockdowns had failed and secretly vastly more people were dying than normal, you might expect governments to take dramatic measures to reduce air pollution, like shutting down a bunch of farms in the Netherlands, where COVID mortality was highest in places with high nitrogen emissions.

Gradually, AI would start filling the gaps in our society, along with telecomworkers from abroad. When I went to the gym, the door was locked, so after pressing the contact button I heard an English speaking African man, who couldn’t speak Dutch. Others spoke to him and they struggle to speak English, so they found it annoying. In the past when I pressed that button, just two years ago I would get a local Dutch speaking woman. I didn’t attend at strange hours either, it was just 7PM, I’ve used that button at around 11PM years ago and I just got someone Dutch.

AI filling the gaps is also easy to see. AI can now produce art and voices. Voice acting, drawing? People who used to do those jobs can now move into other parts of the labor force. Algorithms can just quite easily change faces in films. It will soon just be a waste of money to film actual films, you can just grab old films and apply AI to change faces and dialogue. Why have a multimillion budget?

You could probably expect an increase in ambulances and waiting periods for hospitals. Well, that one is easy to prove that it’s happening, you can check out the statistics from the UK, they have skyrocketing wait times. And so it wouldn’t reveal that people are dying in droves: We see these reports in the newspaper and they lead none of us to think “maybe two times as many people are dying as the government says”. I tend to hear and see more ambulances than I used to, other people notice it too, but everyone just shrugs and accepts it.

The people who would say “hey the statistics are fake” would be mainly the sort of people who already believe in various “alternative theories” and so you would just take it with a grain of salt. This guy from market-ticker.org had a post where he insisted a few million people are missing from some labor statistic that’s hard to fake and can only be explained by a couple of million deaths (not disability), but I can’t find that post anymore.

Take a look at this:

A Great Famine occurred in 1959 and 1961. For two decades the Chinese government maintained that between 10 and 20 million died as a result of drought and bad weather during that time. Now it believed that between 30 and 45 million may have died, making it world’s greatest disaster since the Great Plague of the Middle Ages. What is even worse is that catastrophe now seems to have been a direct result of — or at least exacerbated by — Mao’s inept attempts at industrialization during the Great Leap Forward.

China had 660 million people at the time. If you say 22 million more died than the government admitted, then 3.33% of the population died over a period of three years, whose deaths were effectively simply covered up. Every level of the bureaucracy was involved in covering up what was happening, all the way down to doctors who had to register different causes of death.

Imagine for a moment this was really going on: Vastly more people dying than the government statistics suggest. It could be from COVID, or you could imagine it happening from the vaccines. I want you to consider: We know some people died from the COVID vaccines, we know governments aren’t as enthusiastic about these vaccines as they used to be.

Imagine that instead of the ~20% excess deaths we see in the official statistics, it’s like the Chinese Great Famine, where just a small extent of the problem is being admitted and the real scale is much bigger than we’re told. There is one embalmer who claims he’s now seeing 80% of corpses with strange fibrous clots in their vessels.

Who are the people who would:

  1. Notice something weird going on.
  2. Report on something weird going on.
  3. Show up on your radar.

I think it would be mainly these embalmers. Doctors can’t be trusted to report on it during such an event, we have numerous examples throughout history where doctors were complicit in covering up mass death, by filling in wrong causes of death when people died of hunger. This happened on a massive scale during the Great Chinese Famine, in fact, all levels of government were involved in covering up that famine. The schizos who would notice this stuff and report on it wouldn’t show up on your radar, you would just think they’re crazy.

Obviously, this idea is so schizo that I’m a little embarrassed to admit how I can’t shake it off. It keeps bugging me, it bugged me long before I saw this 4chan post. I go outside of my hometown and I see empty houses that have me wondering “why is this house empty, it’s a great location and we supposedly have a housing shortage”.

Going to small towns further away in the country, insofar as the trains still allow me to get there, also has me wonder “Where the hell is everyone!?!?!”. It feels too quiet. There’s just too little traffic, not enough crowds on the street, definitely too few old people. I can’t prove it, but it’s hard not to notice that something feels “off”.

Would you notice empty nursing homes? I don’t think so. Nursing homes in my country always have nasty waiting lists. If whatever kills people would also be accelerating cognitive decline, demand could even just stay the same.

None of this is to say that I genuinely believe twice as many people are dying right now as normal. Rather, my point is: If something went wrong, a bunch of people started dying and it would be widely diffused throughout the population, governments could probably get away with it by admitting 10-20% of the actual problem and covering up the other 80-90% without us noticing. They got away with death rates doubling in China for a couple of years.

Take a look at the trains in the Netherlands. This just feels very weird to me.

So in weekends and during the evening, the number of trains goes down 50%. During weekdays, the number of intercities goes down 33%. Why? They have a shortage of personnel, OK, I get it, but 33% cuts, or 50% cuts? How can you just cut trains by 50% in weekends? Did people stop going out? How much staff are they missing? And keep in mind, for 2023 they’re again cutting trains by 10%. Apparently the number of passengers is down 20%. Isn’t that crazy, 20% fewer passengers?

Where did all those people go? Sure, some people work from home now, but how do 20% of passengers disappear? And you notice it in other sectors of the economy too. Cinemas, museums, theaters, they’re all still pretty empty, struggling to make ends meet. And of course you notice the massive labor shortages. Is that really all down to 1% of people stuck at home with long COVID?

The other thing I notice, something I didn’t notice before 2020, are the rats. They’re EVERYWHERE now. Normally you would expect people to complain about them and for them to get killed. It doesn’t seem to be happening. They just happily wander around during the evening, all over the city, from the deserted city center, to more green parts of the city.

If the system had done something terrible, something that accidentally killed a bunch of people, like Mao in China, it would try to cover it up, sure, but it would also just continually enrage the sort of people who would notice it, with all sorts of petty irrelevant bullshit the rest of the public doesn’t care about. Oh no, look at this black mermaid Disney movie! Hunter Biden is smoking crack again! Look how stupid Joe Biden looks! Rather than trying to avoid provoking your rage, I would try to diffuse it among as many things as possible. Most of the public doesn’t care about a black mermaid, the minority who do will merely discredit themselves in the eyes of the majority with their rage.

Imagine just for a moment all of this was actually going on. It would also explain another strange fact: The continual insistence on lockdowns, which don’t seem to work and seem to cause more problems than they solve. Is it more sensible to think that governments just continually annihilate the economy even though nothing is happening, or is it more sensible to think they’re doing such stuff without admitting why they’re doing it?

Remember, the Netherlands had a complete lockdown during last winter, while our excess mortality supposedly looked like this:

So the whole country is shut down, we’re not allowed to do anything, but the excess mortality is below normal. And then they tell us that the virus has now suddenly changed and stopped killing people, even though more people are getting it than ever before. What’s the simplest explanation, which one fits Occam’s razor best?

-Government accidentally destroys the whole economy for no reason for the third time in two years.

-They’re covering up a bunch of people dying by faking the excess mortality statistics, they lied by saying it’s now a nothingburger.

I don’t know. The problem is, you can’t really trust anything. As AI improves, it merely becomes harder to trust anything. If you caught something on video, it used to mean something, it was evidence of something. Today? You’d be an idiot to believe it.

But here’s the biggest point: THEY ADJUST THE FUCKING STATISTICS WITHOUT ACKNOWLEDGING IT!

The numbers remain the same, but they expanded the blue confidence intervals. They never explained why.

Statistics don’t mean anything anymore. The US government decides to change the definition of a recession and so people then hurry to change Wikipedia to pretend that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not necessarily a recession. In a world where such a thing can happen, is it really far-fetched to think excess mortality statistics could be faked?

And generally speaking, your own perspective will be biased. New York City is a city with more young women than young men. Would you notice this as a young man? Probably not. Your job is probably with other men. Your sports club would have men and the rock concert you go to is probably a masculine band.

Similarly, imagine if everyone was dying from backfiring vaccines. If you’re alive, you’re more likely to be unvaccinated. You’re also more likely to know unvaccinated people, if you’re unvaccinated yourself. Your own perspective will always be biased.

I’m trying to train you here, to develop what Robert Anton Wilson called a state of generalized agnosticism about everything. I’m trying to show you how you can’t really know anything.

Ditch all the knowledge you have acquired during the past two years. Go back to 2019. If someone told you:

“Some new virus escaped from a lab in China but everyone covered it up, they tried to stop it from spreading but failed and a couple of million people died, oh but you can just look at the official government statistics and you’ll notice that it was just a big nothingburger and yeah the vaccine that failed to work killed a handful of people but other than that you can just look at the government statistics to know that everything we did was stupid and pointless and hysterical.”

Wouldn’t your first response be:

Um… are you sure this government that covered everything up isn’t faking those statistics you’re looking at? Do you really believe that they’re telling you all to sit inside your home, but then you look at the death toll and nothing is happening?

I mean, criticizing a government for being too panicky about a virus that escaped from a Chinese bioweapon lab seems like a very strange side for the fringe far-right chronically angry nutcases to be on, if you haven’t experienced the context of the past two years.

If I were the government in this situation, I would prime the far-right chronically angry nutcases to attack me from the opposite direction. As a government official I know no matter what I do you will be spewing your genius insights in regards to how everything I do is wrong on the Internet, so rather than trying to convince you I’m doing something right, I make sure you attack me from the direction I want to be attacked.

I would have people up on TV, telling you that they diagnosed some guy who fell off a ladder or had a gunshot wound to his head with this new Chinese virus. This way, you would attack me from the direction I want to be attacked from: “IT’S ALL A NOTHINGBURGER!!!”

If it’s all so obviously a nothingburger and panic and hysteria and a boring flu that kills 290 year olds with twenty different pre-existing conditions, could it be that it’s all just a little TOO obvious?

UPDATE: Alright now it’s no longer funny, I’m starting to shit bricks.

Take a look at this:

2022 Wikipedia deaths:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:2022_deaths

6,704 articles.

2021 Wikipedia deaths:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:2021_deaths

11,986 articles.

2020 Wikipedia deaths:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:2020_deaths

12,352 articles.

Ok, and here it comes. Prepare to shit bricks, it’s no longer funny.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:2019_deaths

9,885 articles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:2018_deaths

9,813 articles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:2017_deaths

9,806 articles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:2016_deaths

9,799 articles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:2015_deaths

9,833 articles.

Do you notice how consistently elevated that number is? There’s a 20-25% increase for 2020 and 2021.

This is already just more than you would expect, based on the mortality statistics. My country had 10% more deaths than normal in 2021. Flanders similarly had almost no increase in 2021 compared to 2019.

It’s hard to look at this, without the impression that we have too many people dying. And keep in mind, these are just somewhat famous people dying. Heaven knows what the real death rate is for average proles.

26 Comments

  1. I did not know of the rigged Chinese data of yesteryear. You know, this would be about the best explanation yet of the continual zero-C policy of the Chinese seemingly in the face of common sense: it is the only country with a living memory of such a disaster of this magnitude and they are trying their best to avoid a repeat?

  2. Every time I go out the roads are clogged up, people everywhere, C19 has really let me down. I hoped it would thin out the herd but don’t know anyone who died in the past two years. Haven’t seen any evidence of C19, vaccines, or the pox killing anyone but remain optimistic eventually something will happen. I suspect the labor shortage for low paid jobs is due to demographics. Boomers are retiring and there aren’t enough new workers coming online to replace them. After the dot com bubble crash and then the high house prices in the ’00s I’m thinking the labor shortage in the next few years will be really bad soon and many schools will have to close. The elementary school in my neighborhood has already been converted into a senior center and even as a 30 something I’m still one of the youngest people most anyplace I go.

  3. Here in Portugal we’ve had record attendance of nearly every summer festival and folk events. It was framed as “people thirsting for festivals after two years of cancelled mass events”.
    So this and in my daily experience it doesn’t seem to me that people are missing.

    Oddly, this is despite Portugal, like Spain, having the highest excess mortality recorded in Europe by a stretch. But, yeah, it seems to be hard to notice even such high body count in the day to day.

    It could be that other EU countries in reality would be more like Portugal and Spain, but for now I can hardly see it being much worse than that.

    Still, I’m seeing signs all around of a very substantial increase in deaths. Something fishy going on for sure. The unvaccinated covid death rate has been clearly manipulated from the start, for instance, so why stop here?

    • I am seeing something similar in Central Europe (Italy, etc.).
      Towns and roads are packed with people. Covid infections are very high,
      but I haven’t heard of anybody dying from it, going to a hospital
      because of it, etc. So, if I were transported to 2022 from 2019, I wouldn’t
      be able to tell the difference. All signs of coronavirus in summer 2022 are gone.

  4. Regarding the run-down houses (twitter): it’s possible to own a valuable property but not be able to afford to keep up with maintenance. Of course to anyone with a bit of money and get-up-and-go, they look like a inexplicable waste.

    I think the current level of mortality appears to fit the stats. Definitely above normal but not particularly noticeable. Having said that, I do know six suicides and four drug deaths from the past 2.5 years, which is certainly unusual.

  5. Well, I don’t think this is happening. I guess. Probably.

    But, the passage about generalized agnosticism is certainly well taken. I’m not ruling anything in or out.

    If it is true, Keith Richards is going to be awfully lonely.

  6. Excess mortality is certainly up. Government statistics and insurance company statistics both confirm the increase. If the additional deaths are large enough to create an observable change in our local environment, though, I would expect available economic activity data (somewhere) to correspondingly indicate that people are missing.

    I don’t see any obvious indications in these monthly US economic activity stats, here: https://ihsmarkit.com/products/us-monthly-gdp-index.html. I don’t see any obvious indications in monthly US primary energy consumption, here: https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/. Until there is some indication in the data, I’m inclined to be conservative, to think that excess deaths are real and vaccine related but not yet at levels that visibly impact the world around us.

  7. I’d look for it in the secondhand market.

    I mean, people dying tends to leave behind a houseful of stuff. A lot of it junk, but also a lot of still-useful household goods: dishes, linens, furniture, small kitchen appliances, books, that sort of thing. Most of that stuff is not valuable collectors’ items, and a great deal of it will end up in thrift stores because it’s not worth people’s time to sell a set of unfashionable plates for $5, when you’re trying to prep a house for sale, or get a rental cleaned out quickly.

    So… IF there were dramatically more people dying than usual, I’d expect people who frequent thrift stores to notice a big increase in the quality and availability of decent thrift-store “finds”. Like, maybe all of a sudden it’s really easy to find good blankets, decent flatware, working electric mixers, that sort of thing– maybe you used to have to hunt for something like that in several stores, and now you can pretty much always pick one up in the first shop you visit.

    I have noticed this, because I do frequent thrift shops, but I’ve also moved twice in two years, so I can’t say whether it’s an increase, or if the shops in my new locale are just better than the ones in my old town. Curious to hear from people who’ve stayed put the last few years, and who also frequent thrift shops.

    • In the same vein, I’d expect to see market values of “vintage” and collectible items drop, due to more of them being for sale.

  8. Here in Australia I have been thinking the same. Crowds are so much smaller everywhere I go. I make my living from them so I notice.
    Especially the roughly 18 to 25yo demographic seems to be particularly absent, something I especially don’t understand since most of the hypothesis to do with injury or death would affect older demographics more.
    Also, every old person I know is going to funerals all the time, they are dropping like flies in the last year or so.
    Businesses, multiple, closing during the busiest most profitable times of day due to understaffing…none can find staff (again, staff that would usually be in the 18 to 25yo group) unheard of.

    My gut tells me something is really really wrong, and the only info we have that might be unaltered, because it is single individuals in positions to see widespread situations, but is also hard to verify, is the mortician and life insurance leaks, of which there have been many and all show way way over 20% mortality boosts, more like 60 to 400% depending on which ones and how you interpret them

  9. Hard to see the forest when you’re surrounded by trees. The way people generally think about mortality is skewed, we tend to look at it like a stadium full of people, if there’s a higher death rate then we expect more empty seats. But it’s more like a leaky pipe of ball bearings; to know the average residence time (life expectancy) in the pipe you need a representative sample across all the balls exiting the pipe at its various egress points. Because of the ‘bath tub’ nature of mortality, it’s possible for the mid-section to significantly increase proportionally (i.e. a small number increasing 100% still leaves a small number) and not see much difference in the overall life expectancy. Our personal experiences of an increase is very localised (the trees for the forest) so poor empirical evidence (‘anecdata’). In my country the average road death toll is ~1,300 pa yet I’ve not know of anyone who’s died on the roads in the last 10 years; that toll could double and I probably still would not hear of anyone dying. I guess what I’m trying to say is that we’re in the dark as to the true mortality data (especially if the stats are being fudged) and will likely remain so for many years. What should be troubling though is the birth rate (the ball bearings entering the pipe) as that is a leading indicator of a long term systemic issue; although, perhaps that is their plan!. Birth rate is a ‘clean’ data point and hard to fudge, so would be useful to inspect.

  10. The Ethical Skeptic on Twitter estimated around mid 300,000 excess deaths since the pandemic. It translates to 1 in 1000 excess deaths in the population. The pace has not let up unfortunately. Given the drastic decline in recent birth rate trend, there will be a lot fewer living people in a decade.

    • Latest update from The Ethical Skeptic –

      A reminder – 367,000 younger persons died between 3 Apr 2021 and 3 Sep 2022.

      • From a factor – TBD but is embargoed mention
      • Covid is now at 1950 deaths per week
      • This factor is killing 6,000 per week (5+ sigma high)
      • Cancer is at a 5+ sigma high

  11. I said when the vaccines came out that unless they caused people to drop dead in the doctors surgery in large numbers then everything that happened to people after that would be ignored by both the medical so called profession and the State. A middle aged person drops dead from a heart attack? Shrug, it happens. An elderly person suffers a stroke and dies? Well they were old, what do you expect? There was never going to be a smoking gun from the vaccines, people dying in some new and obvious way, that could only be attributed to the vaccines, just elevated death levels from all sorts of things that people die of anyway. The signal would be hidden within the noise of the usual death stats.

    In my personal family and friends circle I have experienced 3 deaths in the last 18 months. My own father (80s), my sisters father in law (70s) and the mother of a friend (60s). My father was not unexpected, he was very ill and had been for years, the father in law was unexpected, died suddenly from sepsis, my friends mother was also unexpected, heart attack, although she was in poor health, having had a serious operation pre-covid to remove a non-cancerous growth from inside her skull. All were vaccinated, but for people of that age vaccination is almost guaranteed anyway. Who can say whether the deaths of all three were precipitated by their vaccine shots or not? Two were not in good health, though one was. But otherwise healthy people in their 70s do die suddenly. Nothing screams ‘implausible’ about their demises. But multiply that across millions of people, and maybe you have something unusual.

    But unless the authorities want the truth known they’ll never go looking for it, or let the data out that proves it. We live in a post truth world. We cannot rely on anything official, because we know they would lie if they considered they needed to. They’ve been caught out enough times already with the lies for anyone to put any faith in official stats. That doesn’t mean they are all false, but you have to consider the possibility that they are. The bigger the lie the more likely you are to get away with it, because it is so implausible.

    Personally in the UK I have not noticed any real ‘Where have all the people gone’ moments, but then again the UK government issued 1.1m visas to foreigners to come to the UK last year, so if the population was missing a few hundred thousand natives, who would notice with so many extra people being shipped in constantly?

    • > But unless the authorities want the truth known they’ll never go looking for it, or let the data out that proves it. We live in a post truth world. We cannot rely on anything official, because we know they would lie if they considered they needed to. They’ve been caught out enough times already with the lies for anyone to put any faith in official stats. That doesn’t mean they are all false, but you have to consider the possibility that they are. The bigger the lie the more likely you are to get away with it, because it is so implausible.

      Precisely.

  12. I remember the ticker guy post about that. If I remember correctly it was last year, and the statistic is the total non-institutionalized population >16 years old or something like that. His point was that it had been increasing pretty reliably by some amount for the previous couple years, but then suddenly the increase dropped off. He argued that’s only because a bunch of people died, and I thought it was shocking if true. I told my less credulous business partner, and together we looked up birth rates. Well, it turns out exactly 16 years ago there was a big dip in the birth rate which mostly explains it.

  13. You know, those ‘useless eaters’ need to eat. So if people are dying then we should see a decline in basic food demand.
    Just checked the time series of the bread consumption in NL:
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/960814/bread-consumption-in-the-netherlands/#:~:text=Bread%20consumption%20in%20the%20Netherlands%202009%2D2021&text=In%202021%2C%20bread%20consumption%20amounted%20to%20just%20over%20783%20million%20kilos.
    yes, it is down in 2020 and 2021 but it was going down YoY since 2010 except for 2019.
    Spain is also down but again it is just a continued trend away from bread apparently. Those low carb folks!
    There is also data for other countries but the paywall jumped in.
    On a second thought – maybe not the brightest idea. 5% change will be easily hidden in the YoY volatility.

  14. Very interesting line of thought!

    But one of your possible explanations is not tenable:

    “-Government accidentally destroys the whole economy for no reason for the third time in two years.”

    Not the whole economy is destroyed. The small to mid-sized enterprises are being destroyed, while the large group corporations are being enriched, espec. the digital-financial complex. This indicates that government acts in the interest of these very large companies.

  15. Is the ticker you’re thinking of “Jobs? WHAT Jobs?” from July 08, 2022? It’s been taken down:
    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=246325

    Here’s an archive:
    https://archive.ph/nSxsU

    I remembered Karl mentioning this in an interview, and found said interview through OwlTail. It was an interview by Retirement Lifestyle Advocates Radio on 2022-07-17, and he mentions the drop (“8,000,000 people on an annualized basis”) at about thirty minutes into the episode:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOD60QZarBo&t=1830

    Here are other sources for that episode in case that video “suddenly”s or “unexpectedly”s:

    https://retirementlifestyleadvocates.com/podcast/episode/2022-07-17-retirement-lifestyle-advocates-radio-w-karl-denninger

    https://www.spreaker.com/user/rlaradio/2022-07-17-retirement-lifestyle-advocate

  16. I regularly look at the Euromomo statistics. During the pandemic, I thought that the worst disaster was a lack of reliable statistics, but for a while I tought that Euromomo was the ultimate Covid data source: granular, hard to manipulate, updated weekly.

    After all, a death certificate is a death certificate, and I could not imagine coroners hiding deaths, or statisticians changing the data.

    However, of course, excess mortality is compared to a baseline. It is not clear to me how that baseline is calculated. Do you know?

    Is it a moving average? So after a number of years of high excess mortality, the baseline will go up, and excess mortality will go down?

    Or is it a model? And in that case, who decides what goes into the model? And who pays them?

    In both cases, the “real” excess mortality might very well be higher than the reported one, which is already exceptional.

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