Why the real excess mortality is worse than you think

Excess mortality is a signal, that can tell you whether something is wrong in the general population. We know how many people should die in a given year, based off the age structure of the population. Since 2020 this has shot up significantly. As the increase lasts longer however it becomes more worrisome, as excess mortality, particularly among the elderly, should be followed by deficit mortality.

And that’s where the problem comes in. Let’s travel back in time to march 2020, when I wrote:

What nobody will point out, is that the current increase in the death rate, will be followed by a subsequent decrease in the death rate. The people who are dying in Italy right now, are people whose pre-existing conditions are likely to have killed them a few months or a few years later.

This was correct, in the sense that summer of 2020 saw fewer deaths than you would expect, at least here in the Netherlands. And yet, eventually the excess mortality began again, with 2022 now being particularly bad. And that matters, because about a third of people dying in 2020 from COVID in Western nations were nursing home residents.

On average you spend about two years in a nursing home. The average dead nursing home resident in 2020 would have been slightly over halfway through his “normal” stay in a nursing home (as the ones who die will be sicker on average than the average nursing home resident), had nothing happened.

The over-representation of nursing home residents among the dead is an indicator for the degree of ill health you had to be in to die of COVID. The elderly dying outside nursing homes from COVID would not have been much healthier, so there too you would have seen a low life expectancy if they hadn’t died of COVID first.

In other words, the deaths in 2020 are supposed to be translating into negative excess mortality today. And yet, even if you only look at excess mortality among the elderly, you see no sign of negative excess mortality.

If you take this simple fact into consideration, the excess mortality for 2022 is really bad.

Have a look at this:

The estimate given here is 11k for Portugese citizens ages 75 and up, which falls in line with my expectation. The year isn’t over yet, so we’ll say we have 10k negative mortality that’s supposed to be showing up in the statistics, but isn’t there. So watch what happens when we account for the deficit we’re supposed to have inherited from the past two years:

Now you see the real problem we’re dealing with, when you account for the negative excess mortality. This is what most people seem to be missing. Whatever is harming people is getting worse, which you’ll only realize when you account for the people who died in the previous two years.

The vaccines were supposed to achieve an easy victory: Excess mortality should have been below 2020, simply because the most vulnerable elderly had already died and the first two waves would have led to natural immunity in survivors. What has actually happened is that excess mortality shot up, but we don’t directly notice it because we don’t account for negative excess mortality.

I warned about this exact prospect a year ago. The mass vaccination campaign was going to cause a lot of death:

Breakthrough infections are more severe than infections before we had vaccines. These breakthrough infections are going to become more common over time. Most importantly however, we can expect that the breakthrough infections will start to grow more severe over time, because we no longer have enough unvaccinated susceptible people whose bodies impose negative selective pressure against antibody escaping/ADE spike protein mutations. The burden on the hospitals will thus increase and ultimately reach the point where hospitals can’t cope with all the patients anymore, leading to a further increase in mortality.

This is what’s now playing out. We’re now starting to see excess death as a result of hospitals being unable to treat every patient:

It seems to me that governments felt the only way to escape constant lockdowns that were economically unsustainable was to vaccinate people, as otherwise the mass hysteria just wouldn’t fade away. What nobody accounted for is that when you have fifty companies developing vaccines, but most drop out of the race because they recognize their candidate doesn’t work, you’re going to be left with the unethical companies that don’t care their product is dangerous. That’s how we ended up with an obscure biotech developing mRNA vaporware that had never led to an actual product (Moderna) and the company that paid the largest pharmaceutical industry fine in history (Pfizer).

The second problem nobody seems to have accounted for was the evolutionary dynamics you face when you fixate the entire Western population on an extinct version of the virus. Western politicians are selected mainly for social competence and optimism, not for intelligence or actual understanding of the world we inhabit. The fact that China and North Korea managed to dodge the mRNA products is a strong argument against democracy: It protects people from getting the sort of government they deserve. There’s nobody quite as awful as the sort of person who can get a majority of the population to elect him as their leader.

As I have argued many times by now, these hypersocial pathologically optimistic low IQ morons have created an existential threat for all of humanity: This isn’t just the first time in geological history that we have a sarbecovirus spreading through a population of billions of primates. It’s the first time that we have collectively shown our cards to a sarbecovirus: We have given everyone a similar immune response that allows this virus to drop affinity for those antibodies that neutralize this virus, while preserving affinity for antibodies that aid the replication cycle. And because the response is so similar in every individual, whatever variant works well in one person will also work well in the other people said individual encounters.

If the facts change, then the story changes. I know a lot of people don’t like to hear this, but when you go out of your way to create an existential threat, then that is what you get. As long as most of the population keeps getting infected multiple times a year, the excess mortality will get worse. Your body isn’t designed to cope with multiple annual infections from a sarbecovirus, sorry.

There is the acute risk of people suffering respiratory distress, but far more worrisome is the simple fact that most of the population now suffers some degree of immune damage, which can have repercussions for years to come. The lockdowns are now being thrown under the bus, to stop the vaccines from being blamed. In 2020 this would have been unthinkable, to see the lockdowns being blamed for droves of people getting sick.

And if I’m allowed to make a daring prediction, I think you may end up seeing the vaccines thrown under the bus too, the adverse effects being acknowledged as responsible for excess mortality, to obscure the far more worrisome fact that this an ecological state change in the human virome that will affect us for years if not decades to come.

When you kill the fish in the ocean, what you sometimes see is that they don’t recover when you stop killing them. In their absence population numbers of jellyfish will grow. The remnants of dead jellyfish will then end up feeding bacteria, rather than feeding the plants that fish need to eat. As a consequence you get stuck with a bacteria-jellyfish dominated ocean, in which the fish can’t recover to the previous situation.

The horrifying reality isn’t just that they have enabled this virus to establish an effectively permanent presence in our population. In addition, infectious pressure is high enough to trigger substantial positive feedback: By damaging our immune systems, this virus now transforms our bodies into more compatible hosts, enabling further reinfections. What you have to remember is that these viruses persistently infect bats. The immune damage seen in people after infection would go a long way towards explaining how they accomplish this.

Novel SARS-COV-2 variants show signs of growing interferon resistance, as interferon response is necessary to abort an infection early on. But importantly, after mild infections the plasmacytoid dendritic cells responsible for most of your interferon secretion are depleted for at least seven months. With sufficiently rapid reinfections it thus ends up terraforming your body for all practical purposes, like jellyfish do to the ocean.

All of this was preventable. Sarbecoviruses infect millions of human beings around the world, but they normally struggle to spread from person to person or establish a permanent presence in our bodies, as they have to compete for hosts with viruses far better adopted to spread between humans. It’s only because of people’s own actions that we could ever end up in the present situation.


  1. I read you, John Paul, and Geert among others. I disagree with your conclusions on occasion, but I take away a host of good information. Your writing stands apart due to your ability to develop and support a position while reducing complex concepts and language to intellectually bourgeois bight sized nuggets. Greatly aids digestion. Thanks.

  2. I fear that your predictions are right. The whipsaw information warfare campaign that Western countries are waging against their own people do not stand a chance if we have truth tellers like you dishing out these written gems. Thank you for all the work that you do. Now it is up to the rest of us plebeians to build up our immune system and help prevent this man-made calamity from being realized.

  3. >”What nobody accounted for is that when you have fifty companies developing vaccines, but most drop out of the race because they recognize their candidate doesn’t work, you’re going to be left with the unethical companies that don’t care their product is dangerous.”

    This is spot on.

    When you ask professionals around for impossible tasks (such as a working coronavirus vaccine in 6 months) and/or at impossibly cheap prices (such as 50 bucks to tailor a suit), the good professionals will drop out or turn you away.
    By making unreasonable demands, you’re just selecting for the most unethical scammers willing to fool you with gimmicky products.

  4. The site usmortality.com displays something similar… go there and click on “all age groups”.

    Among most age groups, deaths are finally back down to more or less normal — including, apparently, suicide and substance abuse among the working-aged population caused by the lockdowns — but among 75-84 and 85+ they’re still running at 15-20% above normal.

    (Although I should also point out that ages 65-74 are the Boomers, and as births peaked in 1960, there are significantly more people aged 65 than aged 74.)

  5. Excess deaths in Portugal were horrible in the first half of the year, but now they are mostly back to normal. The effect seemed only temporary, fortunately.

    Of course, we are still to see what long term side effects the mRNA juice will have. But this wave of excess mortality seems done.

        • Abs, this is the whole point of the article! Still, I believe the pull forward effect is really significant on the last age brackets mainly, because there you’ll find most of the people that can be pulled forward by 1-2 years. I guess the mortality for the up to 65Y olds, or at least 50year olds, will not show any material pull forward effect from covid, as hardly anybody in that age bracket died of corona. So, if the excess mortality in the younger age brackets is normalising, it could really be a good sign.

          • True. What the pull-forward effect indicates is that the working-age and young are normalizing, but the very old are indeed dropping like flies, if they’re STILL elevated over baseline by 15-20% while ALSO having been hit hardest in 2020.

            It’s a bit like Russia in the ’90s when life expectancy for men dropped into the upper 50s, except we may presume it’s hitting both sexes.

          • PFE affects every age group. If there were excess deaths in younger population previously, there should be fewer deaths going forward. If you take a look at the chart below, we are now seeing RED boxes instead of GREEN boxes in every age group! The Ethical Skeptic (@TheEthicalSkeptic) has shown that non Covid excess deaths are getting worse, not better.


          • Thanks for the links Orca.

            Yeah this makes it pretty obvious that the situation is getting steadily worse.

            Doesn’t look like human health benefits from three annual sarbecovirus infections.

    • In most countries mortality statistics are not accurate for several months after the deaths in question. While most western countries report most deaths for statistical purposes in a month or so, the last several percent can take a while.

      I know nothing about Portugal but on average ‘deaths in the most recent half year’ would not be reliable for comparison to ‘prior half year.’

    • No, that is a beta move. You need to take it stoically and accept that in three years’ time you are going to look like Tom Hanks in Philadelphia.

    • It’s not just the vaccine. It is the spike protein itself, too. I have been having the most vivid dreams for the past six months. They are not distressing; in fact the plots are ordinary, but they are terrifically long and vivid. I’m not vaccinated and I don’t take any drugs, just a little alcohol. My husband has been remarking on his dreams. I finally got up the courage and asked him how long his dreams had been that way (I hadn’t told him the duration of mine). He said: about six months. That is when omicron blew through. He’s vaccinated; I probably got spike proteins from him. The unvaccinated will have a couple more rounds than the vaccinated but that’s it. I do take natto serra (clot dissolving), olive leaf extract (anti viral), turmeric (brain) and hawthorn (cardiac) in the hopes of getting my elderly dog through her natural life span and to a good end.

      • On thing that Radagast doesn’t discuss much is that this virus was manufactured. Brian Mowrey has several posts on substack on his position that coronaviruses are by nature pretty stable. If I understand him – his writing is very technical – he thinks that the many, many variants are ongoing lab releases. Each of us will have a different susceptibility to whichever of the countless ongoing variants we are exposed to, depending on our genetic makeup and our infection history and our vaccination history. Hiding out in Bulgaria may change the outcome but there will still be an outcome. Maybe it will be good for some people; I’m an American so I’m obliged to be insanely optimistic.

        • Tbf Radagast does criticise the antivaxxer crowd for downplaying the dangers of the virus and its lab manufactured origins. Like a moron I thought it was a nothingburger until I caught it and haven’t felt right since. I sometimes wonder if the vaccines do in fact confer some kind of protection from the ravages of the spike and the horrors contained within it, albeit with a price of repeat infections.

          • Looking at the vaxxed people I know, I cannot believe that the vax is a good thing. They look terrible.

            I don’t think I’ve caught it yet – I’ve never had the symptoms and I test weekly for my volunteer post – but I’m sure I have the spikes anyway. If you’re married to someone vaccinated, you’re kind of doomed. I did have several periods of odd exhaustion. You might try the four things I listed (hawthorn, natto serra, turmeric (fermented is best), olive leaf extract); I actually feel good presently. And take a look at Dr. Grouf’s protocols on substack; they work for me better than the FLCCC ones and are a lot simpler.

            Today Mowrey posted a finale to his series and the punchline is that he thinks maybe the variants are all natural after all. Who knows.

        • Cheers for the supplement tips. Didn’t know about fermented turmeric, will look into that. I know turmeric by itself has poor bioavailability so I usually mix it into veg curries instead of taking it as a supplement.

    • >Radagast, I would like to know if you think it worthwhile to isolate for 7 months. Or to spend 7 months in an unvaccinated country?

      Reminds me of this one guy who left his siblings behind at Auschwitz against his parents advice, who ended up being the only one not to survive the war.

      Or heck, it reminds me of all these zero COVID wokies who are so proud that they’re the last 5% or so of Westoids who have never caught the batsoupflu.

      What’s the point of living, if you couldn’t get your family out of Auschwitz with you?

      What’s the point of living, if your country is filled with dead and crippled people a few years from now?

      Sometimes I want to document it all, sometimes I want to forget about it all and just get really high. But how far I make it through, well, time will tell. It doesn’t really matter anyway, I hope the orangutans make it through.

      At least the zero COVID wokies have the Phds on their side, if the only ones making it out of this are the unvaccinated then you’re left with a handful of sub-Saharan African countries, Haiti, a couple of miserable people in Eastern Europe and some paranoid schizophrenic flat earthers in the West.

      But even the zero COVID wokies have nothing to look forward to: China is giving up on keeping the batsoupflu out. Whatever happens now, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a place where it won’t affect the vast majority of the population.

      I’d much rather enjoy the time we have left and when shit hits the fan go down with some dignity, than to see if I can “make it through” by sitting in some shack in the woods for God knows how long. Maybe you can help your society out when hospitals can no longer take care of all the sick, maybe your neighbors all get sick and need help.

      That’s a more dignified way to die than to die alone in some shack, five years after everyone else is dead. If it takes you five years longer than the other humans to die, that probably just means you’ll spend five miserable years hunting wild animals, helping to force them into extinction. I don’t plan on doing that.

      • In the U.S., about 40% of working-age Republican voters (compared to 12% of working-age Democrats) are still unvaccinated.

        Just about all of the elderly are vaxxed up — only 18% of GOP seniors are unvaxxed. More women are vaxxed than men, entirely due to women being more Democrat.

        (Source: a Pew survey from last May, but basically everyone unvaxxed then are still unvaxxed now.)

  6. All hope is not lost for us low-status, unvaccinated middle aged white men. Rintrah’s latest opus prompted me to investigate whether or not jellyfish are edible. It turns out that some are not only edible, but highly nutritious. So, not only will the political winds improve as depopulation takes hold, but we will have plenty to eat from our conveniently rising seas as Earth turns into the sparsely populated, but conservative, Venus 2.0. https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/can-you-eat-jellyfish#risks

    • We will also be able to do the jobs (dead) Americans won’t do. I am holding out as unvaxxed in white-collar world waiting for the early retirements and dead-droppers. Gen (unvax)X will inherit the Earth.

      • It’s going to be really bleak, like third world level bleak but without the stoicism. Who will operate the power stations and man the hospitals? We may not even have the consolation of hard drugs either now they’re starting to vaccinate Afghanistan.

  7. Again a wonderful article – kudos. 🙂
    An addendum: One should take into account, that all official data nowadays is fudged – or false. I would not trust any official data today – of course, the extent of the manipulation will differ, but they are certainly all wrong – to a lesser or greater extent. So I personally think, that the real data (and situation) is much worse – which one may derive from indirect observation – three examples:
    In my town there was a big celebration for oldtimers in late summer – much to the surprise of the organisators, not so much elderly people arrived – where have they gone?
    Also when I read in our local newspapers about celebrations like “we honor those, who have been firefighters, members of this or that party for 30+ years” – usually they make photos of the elderly and on the photos only few old people are there in comparison to the list of all honored in the article – where have they gone?
    Also I noticed that the articles about dead people have also been rising constantly.
    So again – I take it that the situation is already much worse than reported.
    I recently joined a new company and in my department, about 1/4 of the employees is on sick leave – yet nobody connects the dots.
    And this is only the beginning of winter – so lets say how it’ll all play out…

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The patients in the mental ward have had their daily dose of xanax and calmed down it seems, so most of your comments should be automatically posted again. Try not to annoy me with your low IQ low status white male theories about the Nazi gas chambers being fake or CO2 being harmless plant food and we can all get along. Have fun!

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