Excess mortality is a signal, that can tell you whether something is wrong in the general population. We know how many people should die in a given year, based off the age structure of the population. Since 2020 this has shot up significantly. As the increase lasts longer however it becomes more worrisome, as excess mortality, particularly among the elderly, should be followed by deficit mortality.
And that’s where the problem comes in. Let’s travel back in time to march 2020, when I wrote:
What nobody will point out, is that the current increase in the death rate, will be followed by a subsequent decrease in the death rate. The people who are dying in Italy right now, are people whose pre-existing conditions are likely to have killed them a few months or a few years later.
This was correct, in the sense that summer of 2020 saw fewer deaths than you would expect, at least here in the Netherlands. And yet, eventually the excess mortality began again, with 2022 now being particularly bad. And that matters, because about a third of people dying in 2020 from COVID in Western nations were nursing home residents.
On average you spend about two years in a nursing home. The average dead nursing home resident in 2020 would have been slightly over halfway through his “normal” stay in a nursing home (as the ones who die will be sicker on average than the average nursing home resident), had nothing happened.
The over-representation of nursing home residents among the dead is an indicator for the degree of ill health you had to be in to die of COVID. The elderly dying outside nursing homes from COVID would not have been much healthier, so there too you would have seen a low life expectancy if they hadn’t died of COVID first.
In other words, the deaths in 2020 are supposed to be translating into negative excess mortality today. And yet, even if you only look at excess mortality among the elderly, you see no sign of negative excess mortality.
If you take this simple fact into consideration, the excess mortality for 2022 is really bad.
Have a look at this:
The estimate given here is 11k for Portugese citizens ages 75 and up, which falls in line with my expectation. The year isn’t over yet, so we’ll say we have 10k negative mortality that’s supposed to be showing up in the statistics, but isn’t there. So watch what happens when we account for the deficit we’re supposed to have inherited from the past two years:
Now you see the real problem we’re dealing with, when you account for the negative excess mortality. This is what most people seem to be missing. Whatever is harming people is getting worse, which you’ll only realize when you account for the people who died in the previous two years.
The vaccines were supposed to achieve an easy victory: Excess mortality should have been below 2020, simply because the most vulnerable elderly had already died and the first two waves would have led to natural immunity in survivors. What has actually happened is that excess mortality shot up, but we don’t directly notice it because we don’t account for negative excess mortality.
I warned about this exact prospect a year ago. The mass vaccination campaign was going to cause a lot of death:
Breakthrough infections are more severe than infections before we had vaccines. These breakthrough infections are going to become more common over time. Most importantly however, we can expect that the breakthrough infections will start to grow more severe over time, because we no longer have enough unvaccinated susceptible people whose bodies impose negative selective pressure against antibody escaping/ADE spike protein mutations. The burden on the hospitals will thus increase and ultimately reach the point where hospitals can’t cope with all the patients anymore, leading to a further increase in mortality.
This is what’s now playing out. We’re now starting to see excess death as a result of hospitals being unable to treat every patient:
It seems to me that governments felt the only way to escape constant lockdowns that were economically unsustainable was to vaccinate people, as otherwise the mass hysteria just wouldn’t fade away. What nobody accounted for is that when you have fifty companies developing vaccines, but most drop out of the race because they recognize their candidate doesn’t work, you’re going to be left with the unethical companies that don’t care their product is dangerous. That’s how we ended up with an obscure biotech developing mRNA vaporware that had never led to an actual product (Moderna) and the company that paid the largest pharmaceutical industry fine in history (Pfizer).
The second problem nobody seems to have accounted for was the evolutionary dynamics you face when you fixate the entire Western population on an extinct version of the virus. Western politicians are selected mainly for social competence and optimism, not for intelligence or actual understanding of the world we inhabit. The fact that China and North Korea managed to dodge the mRNA products is a strong argument against democracy: It protects people from getting the sort of government they deserve. There’s nobody quite as awful as the sort of person who can get a majority of the population to elect him as their leader.
As I have argued many times by now, these hypersocial pathologically optimistic low IQ morons have created an existential threat for all of humanity: This isn’t just the first time in geological history that we have a sarbecovirus spreading through a population of billions of primates. It’s the first time that we have collectively shown our cards to a sarbecovirus: We have given everyone a similar immune response that allows this virus to drop affinity for those antibodies that neutralize this virus, while preserving affinity for antibodies that aid the replication cycle. And because the response is so similar in every individual, whatever variant works well in one person will also work well in the other people said individual encounters.
If the facts change, then the story changes. I know a lot of people don’t like to hear this, but when you go out of your way to create an existential threat, then that is what you get. As long as most of the population keeps getting infected multiple times a year, the excess mortality will get worse. Your body isn’t designed to cope with multiple annual infections from a sarbecovirus, sorry.
There is the acute risk of people suffering respiratory distress, but far more worrisome is the simple fact that most of the population now suffers some degree of immune damage, which can have repercussions for years to come. The lockdowns are now being thrown under the bus, to stop the vaccines from being blamed. In 2020 this would have been unthinkable, to see the lockdowns being blamed for droves of people getting sick.
And if I’m allowed to make a daring prediction, I think you may end up seeing the vaccines thrown under the bus too, the adverse effects being acknowledged as responsible for excess mortality, to obscure the far more worrisome fact that this an ecological state change in the human virome that will affect us for years if not decades to come.
When you kill the fish in the ocean, what you sometimes see is that they don’t recover when you stop killing them. In their absence population numbers of jellyfish will grow. The remnants of dead jellyfish will then end up feeding bacteria, rather than feeding the plants that fish need to eat. As a consequence you get stuck with a bacteria-jellyfish dominated ocean, in which the fish can’t recover to the previous situation.
The horrifying reality isn’t just that they have enabled this virus to establish an effectively permanent presence in our population. In addition, infectious pressure is high enough to trigger substantial positive feedback: By damaging our immune systems, this virus now transforms our bodies into more compatible hosts, enabling further reinfections. What you have to remember is that these viruses persistently infect bats. The immune damage seen in people after infection would go a long way towards explaining how they accomplish this.
Novel SARS-COV-2 variants show signs of growing interferon resistance, as interferon response is necessary to abort an infection early on. But importantly, after mild infections the plasmacytoid dendritic cells responsible for most of your interferon secretion are depleted for at least seven months. With sufficiently rapid reinfections it thus ends up terraforming your body for all practical purposes, like jellyfish do to the ocean.
All of this was preventable. Sarbecoviruses infect millions of human beings around the world, but they normally struggle to spread from person to person or establish a permanent presence in our bodies, as they have to compete for hosts with viruses far better adopted to spread between humans. It’s only because of people’s own actions that we could ever end up in the present situation.